Plays of the Day
Six Plays of the Day went out between June 29 and July 5. Three hit.
That's a losing week for the headline call, and it shows in the number that matters most: the pool finished at -14% ROI. No spin on a week like that — three misses out of six is a bad week, plainly stated.
The posted plays: the week's ugliest miss
The Chicago Cubs call on July 1 was the week's worst outcome. We took their team total under 5.5 at +109. Chicago put up 23 runs.
Two other unders on the Colorado Rockies went the same way: under 5.5 on June 29 (actual 7) and under 5.5 again on July 2 (actual 14). The St. Louis Cardinals under 5.5 on July 3 also blew up, with St. Louis scoring 17.
Not everything went wrong. The San Diego Padres were the week's most-called team — five times — and four of those five hit: under 5.5 on June 29 and July 1, over 2.5 on both July 2 and July 3. The Pittsburgh Pirates' over 3.5 at +110 on June 29 landed too, with Pittsburgh scoring 11.
The strikeout props
Six strikeout calls went out this week, and three hit. Kyle Freeland's over 3.5 strikeouts landed (7 actual), Brandon Young's over 4.5 landed (5 actual), and Hunter Brown's under 6.5 landed (3 actual).
Three missed. Cristopher Sánchez's under 7.5 strikeouts went down when he ran to 9. Jacob Misiorowski's under 9.5 missed at 10, and Jose Cabrera's over 3.5 missed at 3.
The posted-play record
Across all 46 posted plays this week, 23 hit — that's the posted-play record, separate from the Play of the Day pool above. Team totals went 20 of 40. The six strikeout props went 3 of 6. Split by lean, overs went 13 of 24 and unders went 10 of 22.
Ranked matchups
The ranked tiers held mostly to form this week. The top 3 hit 62 of 114. The top 5 hit 216 of 475. The top 10 hit 445 of 965. The full board finished 5,283 of 14,597.
The stat boards
Pitcher boards did the most work this week. Pitcher walks hit 55% of the full board, Earned runs hit 57%, Hits allowed hit 51%, Pitcher outs hit 53%, and Pitcher strikeouts hit 49% of the full board — 62% inside the top 3. Pitcher DFS points sat lower, 34% full and 33% top 3.
The batter boards were mixed. Hits hit 63% of the full board and Total bases hit 50%. Home runs landed just 14% and Stolen bases just 6%. RBI hit 31%, Walks 29%, Runs 42%, DFS points 46%, and H+R+RBI 48%.
Golf: John Deere Classic
141 golfers were graded at the John Deere Classic. Our top pick, Ben Griffin, finished 23rd.
The eventual winner was ranked 3rd on our board — not the top choice, but not a total miss either. Of the 10 golfers we graded in the top 10, 7 made the cut, and the best finish among that group was 1st place.
Every posted play this week
23 of 46 landed — 20 of 40 on team totals, 3 of 6 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-29 | Baltimore Orioles | team total under 5.5 | -125 | 2 | Hit |
| 06-29 | Colorado Rockies | team total under 5.5 | -139 | 7 | Miss |
| 06-29 | Houston Astros | team total over 3.5 | -128 | 4 | Hit |
| 06-29 | Los Angeles Dodgers | team total under 5.5 | -102 | 9 | Miss |
| 06-29 | Miami Marlins | team total under 6.5 | -125 | 10 | Miss |
| 06-29 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | +110 | 11 | Hit |
| 06-29 | San Diego Padres | team total under 5.5 | -110 | 2 | Hit |
| 06-29 | Seattle Mariners | team total over 3.5 | -156 | 6 | Hit |
| 06-29 | Toronto Blue Jays | team total over 3.5 | -137 | 2 | Miss |
| 06-30 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 4.5 | -130 | 3 | Miss |
| 06-30 | Baltimore Orioles | team total under 5.5 | -125 | 3 | Hit |
| 06-30 | Boston Red Sox | team total under 5.5 | -137 | 1 | Hit |
| 06-30 | Chicago Cubs | team total under 5.5 | -104 | 9 | Miss |
| 06-30 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 3.5 | -135 | 2 | Miss |
| 06-30 | Cristopher Sánchez | under 7.5 strikeouts | -102 | 9 | Miss |
| 06-30 | Detroit Tigers | team total under 4.5 | -110 | 9 | Miss |
| 06-30 | Los Angeles Angels | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 3 | Hit |
| 06-30 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -140 | 4 | Hit |
| 06-30 | New York Mets | team total over 3.5 | -135 | 3 | Miss |
| 06-30 | San Diego Padres | team total under 5.5 | -111 | 7 | Miss |
| 07-01 | Chicago Cubs | team total under 5.5 | +109 | 23 | Miss |
| 07-01 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 2.5 | -130 | 2 | Miss |
| 07-01 | Kyle Freeland | over 3.5 strikeouts | -128 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-01 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 8 | Hit |
| 07-01 | San Diego Padres | team total under 5.5 | -100 | 3 | Hit |
| 07-02 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 4.5 | -100 | 5 | Hit |
| 07-02 | Cleveland Guardians | team total under 4.5 | -143 | 6 | Miss |
| 07-02 | Colorado Rockies | team total under 5.5 | -125 | 14 | Miss |
| 07-02 | Jacob Misiorowski | under 9.5 strikeouts | -128 | 10 | Miss |
| 07-02 | Los Angeles Angels | team total over 2.5 | -133 | 0 | Miss |
| 07-02 | Los Angeles Dodgers | team total over 4.5 | -118 | 12 | Hit |
| 07-02 | Miami Marlins | team total under 6.5 | -125 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-02 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -136 | 2 | Miss |
| 07-02 | San Diego Padres | team total over 2.5 | -154 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-03 | Athletics | team total under 5.5 | -110 | 5 | Hit |
| 07-03 | Jose Cabrera | over 3.5 strikeouts | -155 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-03 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -143 | 2 | Miss |
| 07-03 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total under 5.5 | -125 | 5 | Hit |
| 07-03 | San Diego Padres | team total over 2.5 | -110 | 3 | Hit |
| 07-03 | St. Louis Cardinals | team total under 5.5 | -140 | 17 | Miss |
| 07-03 | Tampa Bay Rays | team total over 3.5 | -117 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-04 | Brandon Young | over 4.5 strikeouts | -130 | 5 | Hit |
| 07-04 | Hunter Brown | under 6.5 strikeouts | -158 | 3 | Hit |
| 07-04 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 4.5 | -118 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-04 | New York Mets | team total under 4.5 | -120 | 3 | Hit |
| 07-05 | St. Louis Cardinals | team total over 3.5 | -114 | 4 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.