UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Sat, July 25, 2026 — Etihad Arena · Abu Dhabi · United Arab Emirates. Model record on this card: 9-3. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.
Card in progress
12 of 13 fights finalEvery fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.
Main Card
fight lengthwe said 56% under 2½ · went R5 2:41 ✗ over
how it endswe said KO/TKO 58% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 56% over 2½ · went R1 4:21 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 52% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 32%
fight lengthwe say 51% it goes past 2½ rounds
how it endsKO/TKO 31% · Submission 21% · Decision 47%
fight lengthwe said 63% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 58% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 55% over 2½ · went R3 1:12 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 52% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 37%
fight lengthwe said 58% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 53% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
Prelims
fight lengthwe said 65% under 2½ · went R1 1:32 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 47% · was Submission ✗ we had it 20%
fight lengthwe said 53% under 2½ · went R2 4:49 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 44% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 42%
fight lengthwe said 51% under 2½ · went R2 3:06 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 45% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 37%
fight lengthwe said 56% under 2½ · went R1 4:44 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 40% · was Submission ✗ we had it 20%
fight lengthwe said 72% under 2½ · went the distance ✗ over
how it endswe said KO/TKO 56% · was Decision - Unanimous ✗ we had it 26%
fight lengthwe said 59% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 55% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 50% over 2½ · went R3 3:07 ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 47% · was Submission ✗ we had it 18%