UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Sat, July 18, 2026 — Paycom Center · Oklahoma City · OK. Model record on this card: 11-1. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.
Card complete
12 of 12 fights finalEvery fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.
Main Card
fight lengthwe said 64% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 47% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 52% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 48% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 51% under 2½ · went R1 2:15 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 45% · was Submission ✗ we had it 22%
fight lengthwe said 65% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 63% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 51% under 2½ · went R3 3:29 ✗ over
how it endswe said Decision 46% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 34%
Prelims
fight lengthwe said 54% under 2½ · went the distance ✗ over
how it endswe said Decision 41% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 65% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 61% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 57% under 2½ · went R2 1:40 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 44% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 55% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 50% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 57% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 51% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 56% under 2½ · went R1 1:40 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 46% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 66% over 2½ · went R1 4:04 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 64% · was Submission ✗ we had it 21%