UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker

Sat, November 7, 2026 — Meta APEX · Las Vegas · NV · 📺 Paramount+. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.

WizLays

This cardPosted

🛡 +10012-14-1.09u

⚡ +5001-7-1.23u

🔥 +10002-5+5.74u

The model's most-likely stacks for UFC Fight Night, across a range of payouts. Frozen when posted, graded after the card. The moonshot is just for fun. Not a tip.

🛡 1u playLocked

-113

Model win prob

67%

MM
Miloševićvs Cachoeira · Women's Bantamweight
-445
Henriquevs Parsons · Welterweight
-185

🛡 1u playLocked

+123

Model win prob

54%

Suarezvs Jandiroba · Women's Strawweight
-185
Smithvs Grant · Bantamweight
-225

🛡 1u playLocked

+117

Model win prob

42%

Silvavs Fernandes · Women's Flyweight
-160
Kondratavičiusvs Petroski · Middleweight
-298

⚡ 0.5u playLocked

+478

Model win prob

38%

Schmidvs Nakamura · Featherweight
+275
Henriquevs Parsons · Welterweight
-185

🔥 0.5u playLocked

+800

Model win prob

23%

Schmidvs Nakamura · Featherweight
+275
LL
Lourençovs Petersen · Heavyweight
+140

🌙 for funNot graded

+2093

Model win prob

15%

Schmidvs Nakamura · Featherweight
+275
Elekanavs Fernando · Light Heavyweight
+210
MM
Miloševićvs Cachoeira · Women's Bantamweight
-445
Henriquevs Parsons · Welterweight
-185

Prices are frozen at the best book number when the slip posts, and each slip grades at that price. UFC grades out efficient in our model, so this is for fun, not an edge — stacking legs multiplies the book's vig. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Sort

Main Card

Heavyweight · 5 RDS≈ 11:20 PM ET◆ we like Walker +10.5% vs the books⚔ compare

Waldo Cortes Acosta17-4-0▸ WizPick

WizLine-130 (56%)+130 (44%)best book-225 (67%)+200 (33%)

Johnny Walker23-10-0

fight lengthwe say 49% it goes past 2½ rounds · books say 45% (O +110 / U -140)

how it endsKO/TKO 58% · Submission 10% · Decision 31%

Women's Strawweight≈ 10:40 PM ET◆ we like Suarez +6.6% vs the books⚔ compare

Tatiana Suarez13-1-0▸ WizPick

WizLine-250 (71%)+250 (29%)best book-205 (65%)+180 (35%)

Virna Jandiroba23-4-0

fight lengthwe say 69% it goes past 2½ rounds · books say 75% (O -375 / U +275) ◆ we lean Under

how it endsKO/TKO 10% · Submission 26% · Decision 64%

Bantamweight≈ 10:00 PM ET⚔ compare

Davey Grant18-8-0

WizLine+310 (24%)-310 (76%)best book+260 (27%)-310 (73%)

Elijah Smith10-1-0▸ WizPick

fight lengthwe say 57% it goes past 2½ rounds · books say 48% (O -105 / U -120) ◆ we lean Over

how it endsKO/TKO 31% · Submission 16% · Decision 53%

Light Heavyweight≈ 9:20 PM ET◆ we like Elekana +20.6% vs the books⚔ compare

Billy Elekana10-2-0

WizLine+112 (47%)-112 (53%)best book+260 (27%)-325 (73%)

Lucas Fernando14-3-0▸ WizPick

fight lengthwe say 40% it goes past 2½ rounds · books say 46% (O +105 / U -135) ◆ we lean Under

how it endsKO/TKO 46% · Submission 18% · Decision 36%

Women's Bantamweight≈ 8:40 PM ET⚔ comparesmall sample

Priscila Cachoeira13-9-0

WizLine+526 (16%)-526 (84%)best book+390 (20%)-500 (80%)

Nina Milošević9-1-0▸ WizPick

fight lengthwe say 56% it goes past 2½ rounds

how it endsKO/TKO 29% · Submission 18% · Decision 54%

Flyweight8:00 PM ET⚔ comparesmall sample

Mitch Raposo11-3-0

WizLine+130 (44%)-130 (56%)best book+200 (33%)-230 (67%)

Marcos Degli15-3-0▸ WizPick

fight lengthwe say 52% it goes past 2½ rounds · books say 53% (O -125 / U +100)

how it endsKO/TKO 22% · Submission 32% · Decision 46%

Prelims

Featherweight≈ 7:40 PM ET⚔ comparesmall sample

Keiichiro Nakamura8-1-0▸ WizPick

WizLine-111 (53%)+111 (47%)best book-350 (75%)+285 (25%)

Ollie Schmid4-3-0

fight lengthwe say 46% it goes past 2½ rounds

how it endsKO/TKO 45% · Submission 15% · Decision 40%

Heavyweight≈ 7:15 PM ET⚔ comparesmall sample

Gabriel Lourenço8-1-0

WizLine+103 (49%)-103 (51%)best book+145 (39%)-170 (61%)

Thomas Petersen11-5-0▸ WizPick

fight lengthwe say 33% it goes past 2½ rounds · books say 44% (O +115 / U -145)

how it endsKO/TKO 54% · Submission 17% · Decision 30%

Women's Flyweight≈ 6:55 PM ET⚔ compare

Karine Silva19-7-0▸ WizPick

WizLine-198 (66%)+198 (34%)best book-225 (67%)+190 (33%)

Gabriella Fernandes11-4-0

fight lengthwe say 67% it goes past 2½ rounds · books say 61% (O -180 / U +140) ◆ we lean Over

how it endsKO/TKO 15% · Submission 21% · Decision 63%

Featherweight≈ 6:30 PM ET◆ we like Magomedov +15.5% vs the books⚔ compare

Jose Delano17-3-0

WizLine+177 (36%)-177 (64%)best book-115 (52%)+105 (48%)

Murtazali Magomedov11-0-0▸ WizPick

fight lengthwe say 48% it goes past 2½ rounds · books say 48% (O -105 / U -125)

how it endsKO/TKO 34% · Submission 21% · Decision 45%

Featherweight≈ 6:10 PM ET⚔ comparesmall sample

Austin Bashi14-2-0▸ WizPick

WizLine-375 (79%)+375 (21%)best book-500 (79%)+340 (21%)

Carlos Calderon6-3-0

fight lengthwe say 48% it goes past 2½ rounds

how it endsKO/TKO 27% · Submission 31% · Decision 43%

Middleweight≈ 5:45 PM ET◆ we like Petroski +8.6% vs the books⚔ compare

Mantas Kondratavičius9-1-0▸ WizPick

WizLine-169 (63%)+169 (37%)best book-285 (71%)+240 (29%)

Andre Petroski13-7-0

fight lengthwe say 45% it goes past 2½ rounds

how it endsKO/TKO 32% · Submission 27% · Decision 42%

Welterweight≈ 5:25 PM ET◆ we like Turman +18.6% vs the books⚔ compare

Seokhyeon Ko13-3-0▸ WizPick

WizLine-195 (66%)+195 (34%)best book-750 (85%)+550 (15%)

Wellington Turman18-8-0

fight lengthwe say 65% it goes past 2½ rounds · books say 50% (O -115 / U -115) ◆ we lean Over

how it endsKO/TKO 21% · Submission 18% · Decision 61%

Welterweight5:00 PM ET◆ we like Henrique +12.5% vs the books⚔ compare

Jonny Parsons9-3-0

WizLine+386 (21%)-386 (79%)best book+190 (33%)-230 (67%)

Jose Henrique9-1-0▸ WizPick

fight lengthwe say 64% it goes past 2½ rounds · books say 45% (O +110 / U -140) ◆ we lean Over

how it endsKO/TKO 31% · Submission 11% · Decision 58%

All events → · Model report card →