How the model reads him
Ariel's number is a matchup output — rating against rating, then style against style, plus age and layoff — graded on the fight board like every other call. Our tape covers UFC and Contender Series bouts from 2015 on, and one punch can settle a fight the better fighter was winning. For Ariel specifically, Ariel has only 1 fight on our tape, so every rate here is built on very little.
The full method is on the fight board, and every published call is graded on the report card.