Where he stands
Caio Machado is 1-3 across 4 fights on our tape. He's on a 3-fight losing run. Our rating has him at 1443 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.
He's a volume striker
Caio lands 5.8 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.9. The gap between what he lands and what he takes is the good kind — output without a matching cost is the most durable striking edge there is. His takedown defense sits at 82% — for a striker that's the number that decides whether he gets to fight his fight at all.
How the model reads him
Caio's number is a matchup output — rating against rating, then style against style, plus age and layoff — graded on the fight board like every other call. Our tape covers UFC and Contender Series bouts from 2015 on, and one punch can settle a fight the better fighter was winning. For Caio specifically, Caio has only 4 fights on our tape, so every rate here is built on very little.
The full method is on the fight board, and every published call is graded on the report card.