Where he stands
Kelvin Gastelum is 9-11 across 20 fights on our tape. Our rating has him at 1533 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.
No single dominant tool
Kelvin's rates don't point hard in any direction — 3.7 strikes landed a minute, 0.9 takedowns per 15, 61% takedown defense. That's the most common profile in the sport and the hardest to project, because the matchup rather than the fighter decides which skill ends up mattering.
Age matters more here than in most sports
Kelvin is 35. MMA decline tends to arrive suddenly rather than gradually — durability goes before output does, so a fighter can look sharp on the stats right up until he doesn't. The model factors age in, and it's one of the places we'd trust the number least on any individual fight.
How the model reads him
Kelvin's number is a matchup output — rating against rating, then style against style, plus age and layoff — graded on the fight board like every other call. Our tape covers UFC and Contender Series bouts from 2015 on, and one punch can settle a fight the better fighter was winning.
The full method is on the fight board, and every published call is graded on the report card.