Where he stands
Maria Oliveira is 1-4 across 5 fights on our tape. He's on a 2-fight losing run. Our rating has him at 1404 — it moves with every result and weights who he beat, so a win over a ranked opponent counts for far more than one over a debutant. A record on its own says very little in this sport — two fighters at 12-3 can have faced completely different opposition, which is exactly the gap the rating is built to close.
He's a volume striker
Maria lands 5 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.8. He takes nearly as much as he gives, and that differential is the honest read on a striker. Volume alone is exciting; volume minus absorption is what predicts. His takedown defense sits at 48% — for a striker that's the number that decides whether he gets to fight his fight at all.
How the model reads him
Maria's number is a matchup output — rating against rating, then style against style, plus age and layoff — graded on the fight board like every other call. Our tape covers UFC and Contender Series bouts from 2015 on, and one punch can settle a fight the better fighter was winning.
The full method is on the fight board, and every published call is graded on the report card.