Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, August 19, 2026)?

Andy Pages (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, August 19, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Wednesday, August 19, 2026: Andy Pages (100), Chandler Simpson (93), Shohei Ohtani (92), Corbin Carroll (85), Luis Arraez (82). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .252 against lefties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .303 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .294 against righties this year. Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (NYY), Trent Grisham (NYY), and Ben Rice (NYY). LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Teoscar Hernández (LAD). RHP Robert Stock has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Ty France (SD), and Jake Cronenworth (SD). RHP Kumar Rocker has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and José Tena (WSH).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, August 19, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 67%

Top 10

9/1090%

season 68%

Full slate

158/27059%

season 58%

Top call Andy Pages came through. Shohei Ohtani didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–4

DETaway

PIThomeTop matchup77 Final · 2–4

SDaway

NYMhomeTop matchup81 Final · 4–6

ATLaway

MINhomeTop matchup73 Final · 3–0

CWSaway

CHChomeTop matchup58 Final · 7–6

AZaway

BOShomeTop matchup85 Final · 1–4

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup82 Final · 5–3

NYYaway

BALhomeTop matchup80 Final · 1–0

SFaway

CLEhomeTop matchup69 Final · 4–5

STLaway

CINhomeTop matchup74 Final · 6–7

TORaway

TBhomeTop matchup93 Final · 7–9

ATHaway

KChomeTop matchup67 Final · 7–5

SEAaway

MILhomeTop matchup58 Final · 6–0

WSHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup72 Final · 2–3

LAAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup66 Final · 6–4

LADaway

COLhomeTop matchup100

Not starting60 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 330 shownScore

163 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T1
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsLAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #82
T1
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsSEA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T1
Willy AdamesSS
SF@CLE· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T1
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@TEX· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T1
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@MIL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T1
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@PHI· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T1
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T1
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsATL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T1
Charles McAdoo2B
TOR@TB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T1
Matt McLain2B
CINvsSTL· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
12
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T12
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T12
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T12
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T12
Ben RiceDH
NYY@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T12
José TenaDH
WSH@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T12
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T12
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T12
Jared Young1B
NYMvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T12
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T12
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T12
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T12
Brendan Donovan3B
SEA@MIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T12
Henry BolteCF
ATH@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T12
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T12
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T12
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T12
Enrique Hernández1B
LAD@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #96
T12
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T12
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T12
Keibert RuizC
WSH@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T12
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T12
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T12
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T12
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T12
Liam HicksC
TBvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T12
Angel Genao2B
CLEvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T12
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@BOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T12
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T12
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T12
Garrett StubbsC
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T12
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYY@BAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T12
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T12
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T12
Donovan Walton2B
ATH@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T12
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T12
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T12
Max ClarkCF
DET@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T12
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T12
Jose FernandezDH
AZ@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T12
Connor Norby2B
COLvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T12
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHCvsCWS· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T12
Josh LoweLF
LAA@HOU· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T12
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsSEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T12
Max Muncy3B
ATH@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T12
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsDET· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
58
Andy PagesCF
LAD@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T58
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T58
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T58
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T58
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T58
Luis García Jr.1B
NYY@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T58
Teoscar HernándezLF
LAD@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T58
Otto LopezSS
MIA@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T58
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T58
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T58
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T58
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #18
T58
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSH@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T58
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T58
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #22
T58
Ty France1B
SD@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T58
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T58
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T58
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T58
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T58
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T58
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T58
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T58
Colt Keith3B
DET@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T58
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T58
Dane MyersCF
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T58
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T58
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsATH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T58
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T58
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T58
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T58
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T58
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T58
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T58
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T58
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T58
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #91
T58
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@MIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T58
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T58
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@BAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T58
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T58
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T58
Luis RengifoLF
SD@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T58
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T58
Matt Olson1B
ATL@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T58
Mike TroutCF
LAA@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T58
Josh BellDH
MINvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T58
Heliot RamosLF
NYY@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T58
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T58
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T58
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T58
Victor BericotoLF
SF@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T58
Ben RortvedtC
LAD@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T58
Rafael Devers1B
SF@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T58
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T58
Zach NetoSS
LAA@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T58
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsLAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T58
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T58
Oneil CruzCF
PITvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T58
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T58
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T58
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T58
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T58
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T58
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T58
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T58
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T58
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T58
Tyler TolbertSS
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T58
Luis LaraRF
MILvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T58
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T58
Jacob GonzalezSS
PITvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T58
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T58
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T58
Christian YelichDH
MILvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T58
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@PIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T58
Carter JensenC
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T58
Bryan TorresLF
STL@CIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T58
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T58
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@NYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T58
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T58
Taylor WardDH
SEA@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T58
Josh Smith2B
TOR@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T58
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T58
Elias DíazC
TEXvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T58
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T58
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T58
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T58
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T58
Connor WongC
BOSvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T58
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@MIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T58
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T58
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T58
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T58
Adael Amador2B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T58
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #249
T58
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #252
T58
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T58
Brock RoddenSS
SEA@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T58
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T58
Jake RogersC
CWS@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T58
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T58
Joshua BáezLF
STL@CIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T58
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T58
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@MIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T58
José FermínLF
STL@CIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Andy Pages (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Wednesday, August 19, 2026 board at 100, with Chandler Simpson (TB) and Shohei Ohtani (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Andy Pages

Andy Pages (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is hitting .252 H/PA against lefties this year — and .318 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been mostly holding up against lefties lately — .212 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .429 across 14 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park.

The rest of the top of the board

Chandler Simpson (TB) (93) vs RHP Max Scherzer: an excellent bat at .288 into an arm tough on the same side (.160), hot bat.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (92) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .253 into an arm tough on the same side (.118), hitter's park.
Corbin Carroll (AZ) (85) vs LHP Payton Tolle: a solid bat at .250 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), due to bounce back.
Luis Arraez (PHI) (82) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm tough on the same side (.174), hot bat.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) (81) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .256 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (81) vs RHP Robert Stock: a solid bat at .245 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.417).
Pete Alonso (BAL) (80) vs RHP Will Warren: a strong bat at .253 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (NYY), Trent Grisham (NYY), and Ben Rice (NYY).
LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Teoscar Hernández (LAD).
RHP Robert Stock has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Ty France (SD), and Jake Cronenworth (SD).
RHP Kumar Rocker has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and José Tena (WSH).

Platoon edges to target

Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .252 against lefties this year.
Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .303 against righties this year.
Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .294 against righties this year.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Andy Pages (LAD) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Chandler Simpson (TB), Luis Arraez (PHI), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Pete Alonso (BAL), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Gleyber Torres (DET). Cold but due to bounce back: Corbin Carroll (AZ), Miguel Rojas (LAD), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Francisco Lindor (NYM), and Jakob Marsee (MIA).

How it played out

9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Andy Pages finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, August 19, 2026)?: Andy Pages (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, August 19, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Wednesday, August 19, 2026: Andy Pages (100), Chandler Simpson (93), Shohei Ohtani (92), Corbin Carroll (85), Luis Arraez (82). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, August 19, 2026?: Yes — Andy Pages got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .252 against lefties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .303 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .294 against righties this year. Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Andy Pages (LAD) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis García Jr. (NYY), Trent Grisham (NYY), and Ben Rice (NYY). LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Teoscar Hernández (LAD). RHP Robert Stock has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Ty France (SD), and Jake Cronenworth (SD). RHP Kumar Rocker has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and José Tena (WSH).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Chandler Simpson (TB), Luis Arraez (PHI), Xavier Edwards (MIA), Pete Alonso (BAL), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Gleyber Torres (DET). Cold but due to bounce back: Corbin Carroll (AZ), Miguel Rojas (LAD), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Francisco Lindor (NYM), and Jakob Marsee (MIA).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.