Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, August 20, 2026)?

Chandler Simpson (TB) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, August 20, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Thursday, August 20, 2026: Chandler Simpson (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), Alec Burleson (100), Pete Alonso (100), Henry Bolte (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, August 20, 2026?

Yes — Chandler Simpson got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year. Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .289 against righties this year. Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Robert Gasser has been vulnerable to lefties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA). RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Thursday, August 20, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, August 20, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, August 20, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 67%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 68%

Full slate

95/16259%

season 58%

Top call Chandler Simpson came through. Abimelec Ortiz didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–9

STLaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–1

TORaway

TBhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

SFaway

CLEhomeTop matchup63 Final · 2–0

ATLaway

CWShomeTop matchup95 Final · 2–6

ATHaway

KChomeTop matchup96 Final · 4–7

SEAaway

MILhomeTop matchup88 Final · 6–1

NYYaway

BALhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–2

WSHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup95 Final · 18–3

LAAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100

Not starting47 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 209 shownScore

99 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Zach NetoSS
LAA@HOU· 5-for-6
5HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
2
Luis García Jr.1B
NYY@BAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #32
T2
Michael Massey2B
KCvsATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #36
T2
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T2
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@CWS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #92
T2
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsSEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #122
T2
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@HOU· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #126
T2
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@BAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #149
9
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #4
T9
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T9
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T9
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #41
T9
Daz CameronRF
TOR@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T9
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@KC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #50
T9
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T9
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@KC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #63
T9
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T9
George SpringerDH
TOR@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T9
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T9
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T9
Brendan Donovan3B
SEA@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #94
T9
Austin Riley3B
ATL@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #97
T9
David Hamilton3B
MILvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #109
T9
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsSF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #123
T9
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #133
T9
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAA@HOU· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #148
T9
Adam Frazier2B
LAA@HOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #156
T9
Josh LoweLF
LAA@HOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #157
29
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T29
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #2
T29
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T29
Henry BolteCF
ATH@KC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #5
T29
Brice Turang2B
MILvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T29
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T29
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsATH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T29
Charles McAdoo2B
TOR@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T29
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T29
Gary SánchezC
MILvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T29
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T29
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T29
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #28
T29
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T29
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #31
T29
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@HOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #33
T29
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #34
T29
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T29
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #39
T29
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T29
Ben RiceDH
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #45
T29
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T29
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T29
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #51
T29
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #52
T29
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #54
T29
Heliot RamosLF
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T29
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T29
Christian YelichDH
MILvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T29
JJ BledayLF
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T29
Willy AdamesSS
SF@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T29
Angel Genao2B
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T29
Brock RoddenSS
SEA@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T29
Osleivis Basabe2B
SF@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T29
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T29
Brady House3B
WSH@TEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #84
T29
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #85
T29
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #88
T29
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #89
T29
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #90
T29
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #91
T29
Bryan TorresLF
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T29
Sean MurphyC
ATL@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #96
T29
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T29
Jhonny PeredaC
SEA@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #99
T29
Donovan Walton2B
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #100
T29
Rafael Devers1B
SF@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #104
T29
Héctor RodríguezRF
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T29
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #106
T29
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #112
T29
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #113
T29
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #114
T29
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #117
T29
Brian ServenC
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #120
T29
Matt McLain2B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #124
T29
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #127
T29
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #128
T29
Darell HernaizSS
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #129
T29
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #132
T29
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #137
T29
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #142
T29
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T29
Austin WellsC
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #145
T29
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #153
T29
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #155
T29
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #158
T29
Tyler HeinemanC
LAA@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #160
T29
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsSTL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T29
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@HOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T29
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@TB· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
T29
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@HOU· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, August 20, 2026

Chandler Simpson (TB) is the top hits matchup on the Thursday, August 20, 2026 board at 100, with Yordan Alvarez (HOU) and Alec Burleson (STL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Chandler Simpson

Chandler Simpson (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The lefty is hitting .304 H/PA against righties this year — and .385 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been mostly holding up against righties lately — .229 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Shane Bieber, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .251 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
Alec Burleson (STL) (100) vs RHP Brady Singer: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.359), hot bat.
Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Gerrit Cole: a strong bat at .254 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.227), hot bat.
Henry Bolte (ATH) (96) vs RHP Randy Dobnak: a solid bat at .239 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.227), hot bat.
Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) (95) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: a strong bat at .260 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.235).
Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (95) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a solid bat at .245 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
Yandy Díaz (TB) (95) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.154), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Robert Gasser has been vulnerable to lefties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).
RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).

Platoon edges to target

Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .289 against righties this year.
Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Chandler Simpson (TB), Alec Burleson (STL), Pete Alonso (BAL), Henry Bolte (ATH), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Alejandro Kirk (TOR). Cold but due to bounce back: Brice Turang (MIL), Nick Loftin (KC), Gary Sánchez (MIL), Daulton Varsho (HOU), and Julio Rodríguez (SEA).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Chandler Simpson finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, August 20, 2026)?: Chandler Simpson (TB) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, August 20, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Thursday, August 20, 2026: Chandler Simpson (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), Alec Burleson (100), Pete Alonso (100), Henry Bolte (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, August 20, 2026?: Yes — Chandler Simpson got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year. Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .289 against righties this year. Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Robert Gasser has been vulnerable to lefties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA). RHP Brady Singer has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Chandler Simpson (TB), Alec Burleson (STL), Pete Alonso (BAL), Henry Bolte (ATH), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Alejandro Kirk (TOR). Cold but due to bounce back: Brice Turang (MIL), Nick Loftin (KC), Gary Sánchez (MIL), Daulton Varsho (HOU), and Julio Rodríguez (SEA).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.