Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?

Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Emerson Hancock. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Friday, August 21, 2026: Seiya Suzuki (100), Steven Kwan (100), Ildemaro Vargas (100), Corbin Carroll (97), Pete Crow-Armstrong (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, August 21, 2026?

Yes — Seiya Suzuki got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .239 against righties this year. Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .313 against lefties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .231 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .282 against righties this year. Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .225 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Steven Kwan (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and Nathaniel Lowe (CLE). RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Bell (MIN), Luke Keaschall (MIN), and Byron Buxton (MIN). LHP Connor Prielipp has been giving up plenty to lefties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Luis Rengifo (SD).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Friday, August 21, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, August 21, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, August 21, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 67%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 68%

Full slate

155/27057%

season 58%

Top call Seiya Suzuki came through. Ildemaro Vargas didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–2

ATLaway

MILhomeTop matchup73 Final · 6–7

STLaway

PHIhomeTop matchup82 Final · 1–3

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup69 Final · 4–6

SFaway

BOShomeTop matchup61 Final · 2–3

WSHaway

MIAhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–5

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup87 Final · 4–6

NYMaway

CWShomeTop matchup69 Final · 2–5

DETaway

KChomeTop matchup60 Final · 0–4

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup81 Final · 1–2

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup65 Final · 9–1

CLEaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–6

MINaway

SDhomeTop matchup91 Final · 0–9

CINaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–5

PITaway

LADhomeTop matchup95 Final · 5–6

CHCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 335 shownScore

161 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@COL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T1
William ContrerasC
MILvsATL· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T1
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsLAA· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
4
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@SEA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #18
T4
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsMIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T4
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsSTL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #22
T4
Daylen LileLF
WSH@MIA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T4
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@PHI· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T4
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsCIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #54
T4
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@NYY· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T4
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsSF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T4
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsSTL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T4
Jordan LawlarLF
AZvsCIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
14
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #4
T14
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsCIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T14
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@LAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #21
T14
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLE@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #23
T14
Brendan Donovan3B
SEAvsCHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #24
T14
Michael Busch1B
CHC@SEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #27
T14
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T14
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@LAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #38
T14
Luis RengifoLF
SDvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #40
T14
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T14
Jo AdellRF
CLE@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T14
Manny Machado3B
SDvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #51
T14
Ryan ViladeRF
TB@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T14
Ian HappLF
CHC@SEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T14
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsSF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T14
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T14
Jordan BeckLF
COLvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T14
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T14
Drew GilbertCF
SF@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T14
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T14
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T14
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T14
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsNYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T14
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T14
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T14
Junior Caminero3B
TB@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T14
Keibert RuizC
WSH@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T14
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #147
T14
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsNYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T14
José FermínLF
STL@PHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T14
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T14
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@COL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T14
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T14
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T14
Tim Tawa1B
AZvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T14
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T14
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T14
Carson KellyC
CHC@SEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T14
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsSF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T14
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T14
Christian Koss3B
SF@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T14
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T14
Brett Baty3B
NYM@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T14
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T14
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@MIL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T14
Luis LaraRF
MILvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T14
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #270
T14
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsWSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
62
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@SEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #1
T62
Steven KwanLF
CLE@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T62
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #5
T62
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T62
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T62
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T62
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T62
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #17
T62
Dane MyersCF
CIN@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T62
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T62
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #29
T62
Angel Genao2B
CLE@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #30
T62
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T62
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T62
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #41
T62
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T62
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@SEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #49
T62
Ty France1B
SDvsMIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #52
T62
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T62
Zach NetoSS
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T62
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T62
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T62
Austin HaysLF
SDvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T62
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T62
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T62
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T62
Max Muncy3B
LADvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T62
Willi Castro2B
COLvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #83
T62
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #85
T62
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T62
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T62
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T62
Brice Turang2B
MILvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T62
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T62
Joshua BáezLF
STL@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T62
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T62
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T62
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T62
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T62
Jose SiriCF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T62
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T62
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T62
Iván HerreraDH
STL@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T62
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T62
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T62
Heliot RamosLF
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T62
Rafael Devers1B
SF@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T62
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T62
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T62
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T62
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T62
Carter JensenC
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T62
Jared Young1B
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T62
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T62
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T62
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T62
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T62
Michael Massey2B
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T62
Hunter FeducciaC
LADvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T62
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T62
Oneil CruzCF
PIT@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T62
Jose FernandezDH
AZvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T62
Cole Young2B
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T62
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #172
T62
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T62
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T62
Jake MangumCF
PIT@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T62
Everson PereiraRF
STL@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T62
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T62
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T62
Kenny PiperC
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T62
Brady House3B
WSH@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T62
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T62
Adley RutschmanC
BOSvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T62
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T62
Matt Olson1B
ATL@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T62
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T62
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T62
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T62
Donovan Walton2B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T62
Turner HillCF
SF@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T62
Pedro PagésC
STL@PHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T62
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T62
Dominic SmithDH
ATL@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T62
Javier BáezSS
DET@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T62
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T62
Cody Freeman3B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T62
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CIN@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #242
T62
Elias DíazC
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T62
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T62
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T62
Bryan TorresLF
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T62
Jake RogersC
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T62
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T62
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T62
Colt Keith3B
DET@KC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T62
Alec Burleson1B
STL@PHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T62
Connor Norby2B
COLvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T62
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@KC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T62
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, August 21, 2026

Seiya Suzuki (CHC) is the top hits matchup on the Friday, August 21, 2026 board at 100, with Steven Kwan (CLE) and Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Emerson Hancock. The righty is hitting .225 H/PA against righties this year — and .233 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 23% of his trips. And Emerson Hancock has been vulnerable to righties lately — .261 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Emerson Hancock, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Steven Kwan (CLE) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .245 into an arm tough on the same side (.176), hitter's park.
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (100) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .267 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.241).
Corbin Carroll (AZ) (97) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a solid bat at .249 into an arm tough on the same side (.125).
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (96) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: a solid bat at .229 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (95) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .259 into an arm tough on the same side (.130).
Chase DeLauter (CLE) (95) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .245 into an arm tough on the same side (.176), hitter's park.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (95) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a solid bat at .248 into an arm tough on the same side (.130).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Steven Kwan (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and Nathaniel Lowe (CLE).
RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Bell (MIN), Luke Keaschall (MIN), and Byron Buxton (MIN).
LHP Connor Prielipp has been giving up plenty to lefties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Luis Rengifo (SD).

Platoon edges to target

Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .239 against righties this year.
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .313 against lefties this year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .231 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .282 against righties this year.
Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .225 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Steven Kwan (CLE) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Sal Stewart (CIN), Josh Bell (MIN), Dominic Canzone (SEA), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Luis Arraez (PHI). Cold but due to bounce back: Seiya Suzuki (CHC), Jackson Merrill (SD), Nathaniel Lowe (CLE), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Jorbit Vivas (WSH).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Seiya Suzuki finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?: Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Emerson Hancock. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Friday, August 21, 2026: Seiya Suzuki (100), Steven Kwan (100), Ildemaro Vargas (100), Corbin Carroll (97), Pete Crow-Armstrong (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, August 21, 2026?: Yes — Seiya Suzuki got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .239 against righties this year. Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .313 against lefties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .231 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .282 against righties this year. Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .225 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Steven Kwan (CLE) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Steven Kwan (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and Nathaniel Lowe (CLE). RHP Randy Vásquez has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Bell (MIN), Luke Keaschall (MIN), and Byron Buxton (MIN). LHP Connor Prielipp has been giving up plenty to lefties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Luis Rengifo (SD).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Sal Stewart (CIN), Josh Bell (MIN), Dominic Canzone (SEA), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Luis Arraez (PHI). Cold but due to bounce back: Seiya Suzuki (CHC), Jackson Merrill (SD), Nathaniel Lowe (CLE), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Jorbit Vivas (WSH).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.