Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, June 5, 2026)?

Jackson Chourio (MIL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, June 5, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Friday, June 5, 2026: Jackson Chourio (100), Ernie Clement (88), Jung Hoo Lee (88), Christian Yelich (88), Chase Meidroth (85). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, June 5, 2026?

No — Jackson Chourio didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .321 against righties this year. Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year. Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .318 against lefties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .310 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and Blake Dunn (CIN). RHP Ryan Gusto has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Victor Mesa Jr. (TB). LHP Ryan Weathers has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Jarren Duran (BOS), and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS). RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ernie Clement (TOR), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Friday, June 5, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, June 5, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, June 5, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ hit, against 64% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 64%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 67%

Full slate

143/27053%

season 56%

Top call Jung Hoo Lee came through. Jackson Chourio didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 18–3

SFaway

CHChomeTop matchup88 Final · 3–7

SEAaway

DEThomeTop matchup66 Final · 6–8

CWSaway

PHIhomeTop matchup85 Final · 5–3

BOSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup85 Final · 13–3

BALaway

TORhomeTop matchup88 Final · 6–0

TBaway

MIAhomeTop matchup61 Final · 3–6

PITaway

ATLhomeTop matchup64 Final · 1–5

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup73 Final · 3–10

CINaway

STLhomeTop matchup77 Final · 2–3

CLEaway

TEXhomeTop matchup77 Final · 3–5

KCaway

MINhomeTop matchup64 Final · 9–7

MILaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 14–1

WSHaway

AZhomeTop matchup71 Final · 5–0

NYMaway

SDhomeTop matchup60 Final · 0–1

LAAaway

LADhomeTop matchup75

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

143 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Casey SchmittLF
SF@CHC· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T1
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsCWS· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T1
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@TOR· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
4
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@TEX· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T4
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsSEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T4
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T4
Junior Caminero3B
TB@MIA· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T4
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsCIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T4
Yandy DíazDH
TB@MIA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T4
Daylen LileLF
WSH@AZ· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T4
Henry BolteCF
ATH@HOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T4
Sterlin ThompsonRF
COLvsMIL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T4
Jonah CoxCF
SF@CHC· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
14
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T14
Luis Arraez2B
SF@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T14
George SpringerDH
TORvsBAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T14
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T14
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@AZ· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T14
Tristan GraySS
MINvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T14
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsMIL· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T14
Blake DunnCF
CIN@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T14
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T14
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsCIN· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T14
Orlando ArciaSS
MINvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T14
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T14
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@COL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T14
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T14
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T14
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T14
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T14
Jared Young1B
NYM@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T14
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsSF· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T14
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsLAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T14
Michael Massey2B
KC@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T14
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T14
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T14
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BAL@TOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T14
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T14
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T14
Tommy TroyLF
AZvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T14
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T14
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T14
Marcell OzunaDH
PIT@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T14
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T14
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@MIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T14
Carson KellyC
CHCvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T14
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T14
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T14
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSH@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T14
Colton CowserCF
BAL@TOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T14
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T14
Ryan ViladeRF
TB@MIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T14
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T14
Adolis GarcíaRF
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T14
Brett Baty3B
NYM@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T14
Luis TorrensC
NYM@SD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T14
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
58
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T58
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T58
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T58
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T58
Brice Turang2B
MIL@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T58
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T58
JJ BledayLF
CIN@STL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T58
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T58
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T58
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T58
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T58
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T58
Zach NetoSS
LAA@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T58
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T58
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T58
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T58
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T58
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T58
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T58
Andy PagesCF
LADvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T58
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T58
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T58
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T58
Nick Madrigal3B
LAA@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T58
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T58
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T58
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T58
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T58
Josh BellDH
MINvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T58
Jesús SánchezRF
TORvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T58
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T58
Taylor WardDH
BAL@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T58
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TORvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T58
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T58
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T58
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T58
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T58
Brent RookerDH
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T58
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T58
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWS@PHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T58
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T58
José FermínLF
STLvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T58
Mitch GarverC
SEA@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T58
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T58
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T58
Aramis GarciaC
AZvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T58
Ty France1B
SDvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T58
Willi Castro2B
COLvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T58
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T58
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T58
Alex JacksonC
MINvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T58
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T58
Jo AdellRF
LAA@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T58
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T58
Cole Young2B
SEA@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T58
Richie Palacios2B
TB@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T58
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T58
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T58
Drew MillasC
WSH@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T58
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T58
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T58
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T58
Kyle IsbelCF
KC@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T58
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T58
Colt Keith3B
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T58
Manny Machado3B
SDvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T58
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T58
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T58
Jake MeyersCF
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T58
Austin MartinRF
MINvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T58
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T58
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T58
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T58
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T58
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T58
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T58
Taylor WallsSS
TB@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T58
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T58
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T58
Connor WongC
BOS@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T58
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T58
Zack ShortSS
DETvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T58
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TORvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T58
Victor Scott IICF
STLvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T58
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T58
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #270

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, June 5, 2026

Jackson Chourio (MIL) is the top hits matchup on the Friday, June 5, 2026 board at 100, with Ernie Clement (TOR) and Jung Hoo Lee (SF) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jackson Chourio

Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The righty is hitting .286 H/PA against righties this year — and .300 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been mostly holding up against righties lately — .222 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .091 in 11 career PA against Ryan Feltner, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Ernie Clement (TOR) (88) vs RHP Brandon Young: an elite bat at .308 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
Jung Hoo Lee (SF) (88) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: an elite bat at .344 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Christian Yelich (MIL) (88) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .252 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), hitter's park.
Chase Meidroth (CWS) (85) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.243), hot bat.
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (85) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: an excellent bat at .294 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375).
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (82) vs RHP Brandon Young: an excellent bat at .298 into an arm tough on the same side (.129), hot bat.
Tyler Freeman (COL) (80) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: a solid bat at .243 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.304), hitter's park, hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and Blake Dunn (CIN).
RHP Ryan Gusto has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Victor Mesa Jr. (TB).
LHP Ryan Weathers has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Jarren Duran (BOS), and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS).
RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ernie Clement (TOR), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).

Platoon edges to target

Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .321 against righties this year.
Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year.
Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .318 against lefties this year.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .310 against righties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jackson Chourio (MIL) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Ernie Clement (TOR), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Chase Meidroth (CWS), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Tyler Freeman (COL). Cold but due to bounce back: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Jake Bauers (MIL), Michael Conforto (CHC), and Zach Neto (LAA).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jackson Chourio finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, June 5, 2026)?: Jackson Chourio (MIL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, June 5, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Friday, June 5, 2026: Jackson Chourio (100), Ernie Clement (88), Jung Hoo Lee (88), Christian Yelich (88), Chase Meidroth (85). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, June 5, 2026?: No — Jackson Chourio didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .321 against righties this year. Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year. Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .318 against lefties this year. Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .310 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jackson Chourio (MIL) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Bleday (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and Blake Dunn (CIN). RHP Ryan Gusto has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Victor Mesa Jr. (TB). LHP Ryan Weathers has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Jarren Duran (BOS), and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS). RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ernie Clement (TOR), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Ernie Clement (TOR), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Chase Meidroth (CWS), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Tyler Freeman (COL). Cold but due to bounce back: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Jake Bauers (MIL), Michael Conforto (CHC), and Zach Neto (LAA).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.