Best MLB earned runs matchups — Friday, May 29, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Friday, May 29, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload8.1 BF
Expected batters faced8.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection0.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)11.7%1.0
2. José Ramírez (R)11.7%1.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)11.7%1.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)11.7%1.0
5. Kyle Manzardo (L)11.7%1.0
6. Angel Martínez (R)11.7%1.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)11.7%1.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)11.7%1.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (R)11.7%0.1
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload9.7 BF
Expected batters faced9.7
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)11.7%1.7
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)11.7%1.0
3. Adley Rutschman (R)11.7%1.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)11.7%1.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)11.7%1.0
6. Leody Taveras (R)11.7%1.0
7. Tyler O'Neill (R)11.7%1.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)11.7%1.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload10.0 BF
Expected batters faced10.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.1 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)11.7%2.0
2. Sung-Mun Song (L)11.7%1.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)11.7%1.0
4. Manny Machado (R)11.7%1.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)11.7%1.0
6. Miguel Andujar (R)11.7%1.0
7. Ramón Laureano (R)11.7%1.0
8. Ty France (R)11.7%1.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.6 BF
Expected batters faced14.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection1.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)11.7%2.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)11.7%2.0
3. Brice Turang (L)11.7%2.0
4. William Contreras (R)11.7%2.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)11.7%2.0
6. Blake Perkins (L)11.7%1.6
7. Luis Rengifo (L)11.7%1.0
8. Sal Frelick (L)11.7%1.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)11.7%1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.2 BF
Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)11.7%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)11.7%3.0
3. Taylor Walls (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)11.7%2.2
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.7%2.0
6. Oliver Dunn (L)11.7%2.0
7. Richie Palacios (L)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Fortes (R)11.7%2.0
9. Cedric Mullins (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
DKDraftKings+109-145
FANFanatics-105-135
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.3 BF
Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lawrence Butler (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)11.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)11.7%3.0
4. Brent Rooker (R)11.7%2.3
5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)11.7%2.0
6. Henry Bolte (R)11.7%2.0
7. Zack Gelof (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)11.7%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-160
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.6 BF
Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.4 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)11.7%3.0
2. Ernie Clement (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)11.7%2.6
5. Daulton Varsho (L)11.7%2.0
6. Andrés Giménez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Nathan Lukes (L)11.7%2.0
8. Yohendrick Piñango (L)11.7%2.0
9. Brandon Valenzuela (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+121-161
FANFanatics+105-155
We project 2.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.7 BF
Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)11.7%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
3. Maikel Garcia (R)11.7%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)11.7%2.7
5. Starling Marte (R)11.7%2.0
6. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)11.7%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)11.7%2.0
8. Jac Caglianone (L)11.7%2.0
9. Kyle Isbel (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
DKDraftKings+132-176
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Brice Matthews (R)11.7%3.0
2. Zach Dezenzo (R)11.7%3.0
3. Yordan Alvarez (L)11.7%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)11.7%2.8
5. Cam Smith (R)11.7%2.0
6. Jeremy Peña (R)11.7%2.0
7. Jake Meyers (R)11.7%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-175+125
DKDraftKings-156+117
We project 2.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)11.7%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)11.7%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)11.7%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)11.7%2.9
5. Dominic Smith (L)11.7%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)11.7%2.0
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)11.7%2.0
8. Jorge Mateo (R)11.7%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+105
DKDraftKings-122-109
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.0 BF
Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)11.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)11.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)11.7%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)11.7%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)11.7%2.0
7. José Tena (L)11.7%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jorbit Vivas (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-139+104
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)11.7%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)11.7%3.0
3. Hao-Yu Lee (R)11.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)11.7%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)11.7%2.1
6. Wenceel Pérez (L)11.7%2.0
7. Matt Vierling (R)11.7%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)11.7%2.0
9. Zack Short (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.5 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)11.7%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)11.7%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)11.7%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)11.7%3.0
5. Victor Robles (R)11.7%2.4
6. Cole Young (L)11.7%2.0
7. Rob Refsnyder (R)11.7%2.0
8. Mitch Garver (R)11.7%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+131-175
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.6 BF
Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Blake Dunn (R)11.7%3.0
2. Elly De La Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)11.7%3.0
4. Sal Stewart (R)11.7%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)11.7%2.6
6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)11.7%2.0
7. Spencer Steer (R)11.7%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)11.7%2.0
9. Will Benson (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-110
DKDraftKings-127-105
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)11.7%3.0
2. Derek Hill (R)11.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)11.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)11.7%3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)11.7%2.8
6. Andrew Benintendi (L)11.7%2.0
7. Tristan Peters (L)11.7%2.0
8. Rikuu Nishida (L)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-165
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+115-153
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)11.7%3.0
2. Vidal Bruján (L)11.7%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)11.7%3.0
4. MJ Melendez (L)11.7%3.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)11.7%2.9
6. Mark Vientos (R)11.7%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)11.7%2.0
8. Marcus Semien (R)11.7%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-160
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+126-168
FANFanatics+115-165
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Byron Buxton (R)11.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)11.7%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)11.7%3.0
4. James Outman (L)11.7%3.0
5. Trevor Larnach (L)11.7%3.0
6. Austin Martin (R)11.7%2.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)11.7%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)11.7%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+110
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-131-101
We project 2.6 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jarren Duran (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)11.7%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)11.7%3.0
4. Nick Sogard (L)11.7%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)11.7%3.0
6. Mickey Gasper (L)11.7%2.1
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)11.7%2.0
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)11.7%2.0
9. Caleb Durbin (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-155
DKDraftKings+113-151
FANFanatics+105-150
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Willy Adames (R)11.7%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)11.7%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)11.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Matt Chapman (R)11.7%3.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.7%2.2
7. Daniel Susac (R)11.7%2.0
8. Bryce Eldridge (L)11.7%2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+111-147
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.6 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.6 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)11.7%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)11.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)11.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)11.7%3.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)11.7%3.0
6. Max Muncy (L)11.7%2.3
7. Will Smith (R)11.7%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)11.7%2.0
9. Miguel Rojas (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-125
DKDraftKings-104-127
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)11.7%3.0
2. Nico Hoerner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)11.7%3.0
6. Seiya Suzuki (R)11.7%2.5
7. Michael Conforto (L)11.7%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)11.7%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-140
DKDraftKings+108-144
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)11.7%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)11.7%3.0
3. Sam Haggerty (L)11.7%3.0
4. Justin Foscue (R)11.7%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)11.7%3.0
6. Evan Carter (L)11.7%2.9
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)11.7%2.0
8. Danny Jansen (R)11.7%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-145
DKDraftKings+105-139
FANFanatics+100-140
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Tyler Callihan (L)11.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)11.7%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)11.7%3.0
4. Nick Gonzales (R)11.7%3.0
5. Oneil Cruz (L)11.7%3.0
6. Konnor Griffin (R)11.7%3.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)11.7%2.3
8. Jake Mangum (L)11.7%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-160
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+120-160
FANFanatics+110-155
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.3 BF
Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)11.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)11.7%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)11.7%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)11.7%3.0
5. Wade Meckler (L)11.7%3.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)11.7%3.0
7. Nick Madrigal (R)11.7%2.3
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)11.7%2.0
9. Jose Siri (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-175
DKDraftKings+120-160
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.4 BF
Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.7 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Xavier Edwards (L)11.7%3.0
2. Liam Hicks (L)11.7%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)11.7%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jakob Marsee (L)11.7%3.0
6. Connor Norby (R)11.7%3.0
7. Owen Caissie (L)11.7%2.4
8. Javier Sanoja (R)11.7%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-160
DKDraftKings+125-166
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)11.7%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)11.7%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)11.7%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)11.7%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)11.7%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)11.7%3.0
7. José Fermín (R)11.7%2.5
8. Nolan Gorman (L)11.7%2.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-150
DKDraftKings+115-153
FANFanatics+125-180
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)11.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)11.7%3.0
3. Aaron Judge (R)11.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)11.7%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)11.7%3.0
6. Paul Goldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)11.7%2.8
8. J.C. Escarra (L)11.7%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+115
DKDraftKings-161+121
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)11.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)11.7%3.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)11.7%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)11.7%3.0
5. Tim Tawa (R)11.7%3.0
6. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)11.7%3.0
7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)11.7%2.8
8. Jose Fernandez (R)11.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+115
DKDraftKings-145+109
FANFanatics-165+115
We project 2.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.2 BF
Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.8 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)11.7%3.0
2. Tyler Freeman (R)11.7%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)11.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)11.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)11.7%3.0
6. Willi Castro (L)11.7%3.0
7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)11.7%3.0
8. Edouard Julien (L)11.7%2.2
9. Chad Stevens (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-135
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+104-138
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Pitcher earned runs Rate10.8% Runs / BF
vs LHB10.8%
vs RHB10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.4 BF
Expected batters faced25.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.9 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness11.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)11.7%3.0
2. Trea Turner (R)11.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)11.7%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)11.7%3.0
5. Bryson Stott (L)11.7%3.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.7%3.0
7. Brandon Marsh (L)11.7%3.0
8. Adolis García (R)11.7%2.4
9. Steward Berroa (R)11.7%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over
BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135-105
DKDraftKings-138+104
FANFanatics-130-110
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
27 with a ERLive count — updates as games play
1
Zac GallenP
AZ@SEA· proj #13
5ERFinal
T1
Max MeyerP
MIA@NYM· proj #16
5ERFinal
T1
Jared JonesP
PITvsMIN· proj #17
5ERFinal
T1
Shota ImanagaP
CHC@STL· proj #26
5ERFinal
5
Tyler SamaniegoP
BOS@CLE· proj #1
4ERFinal
T5
Trevor RogersP
BALvsTOR· proj #7
4ERFinal
T5
Chris PaddackP
CINvsATL· proj #10
4ERFinal
T5
Lucas GiolitoP
SD@WSH· proj #11
4ERFinal
T5
Zack WheelerP
PHI@LAD· proj #20
4ERFinal
T5
Andre PallanteP
STLvsCHC· proj #21
4ERFinal
T5
Stephen KolekP
KC@TEX· proj #22
4ERFinal
T5
Taj BradleyP
MIN@PIT· proj #23
4ERFinal
T5
Freddy PeraltaP
NYMvsMIA· proj #25
4ERFinal
T5
George KirbyP
SEAvsAZ· proj #28
4ERFinal
15
Kai-Wei TengP
HOUvsMIL· proj #4
3ERFinal
T15
Grant HolmesP
ATL@CIN· proj #14
3ERFinal
T15
Slade CecconiP
CLEvsBOS· proj #18
3ERFinal
T15
Michael LorenzenP
COLvsSF· proj #19
3ERFinal
19
Coleman CrowP
MIL@HOU· proj #9
2ERFinal
T19
Erick FeddeP
CWSvsDET· proj #12
2ERFinal
T19
Nick MartinezP
TBvsLAA· proj #24
2ERFinal
22
Paxton SchultzP
WSHvsSD· proj #3
1ERFinal
T22
Walbert UreñaP
LAA@TB· proj #5
1ERFinal
T22
Carlos RodónP
NYY@ATH· proj #6
1ERFinal
T22
Troy MeltonP
DET@CWS· proj #15
1ERFinal
T22
Logan WebbP
SF@COL· proj #29
1ERFinal
T22
Justin WrobleskiP
LADvsPHI· proj #30
1ERFinal
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked hitters that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
1/1100%
season 52%+48 pts-4% ROI
Top 10
4/667%
season 52%+15 pts-6% ROI
Top 20
12/1675%
season building
Top 50
18/2669%
season building
Full slate
18/2669%
season 49%+20 pts-9% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Friday, May 29, 2026
Tyler Samaniego (BOS) is the top earned runs spot on the Friday, May 29, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.9 ER, with Adam Macko (TOR) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Tyler Samaniego
Tyler Samaniego (BOS) tops the Friday, May 29, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.9 ER vs CLE. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Adam Macko (TOR) (91) — about 1.1 ER vs BAL.
Paxton Schultz (WSH) (89) — about 1.1 ER vs SD.
Kai-Wei Teng (HOU) (62) — about 1.7 ER vs MIL.
Walbert Ureña (LAA) (24) — about 2.4 ER vs TB.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (23) — about 2.4 ER vs ATH.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.0 ER. Tyler Samaniego finished with 4. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Friday, May 29, 2026)?
Tyler Samaniego (BOS) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 0.9 ER against CLE.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Friday, May 29, 2026: Tyler Samaniego (~0.9 ER), Adam Macko (~1.1 ER), Paxton Schultz (~1.1 ER), Kai-Wei Teng (~1.7 ER), Walbert Ureña (~2.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
