Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, October 7, 2026
Top runs spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP the starter. The righty is scoring at .168 R/PA against righties this year — and .350 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And the starter has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against the starter. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ben Rice (NYY) (81) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.238).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (80) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .133 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (79) vs RHP Tyler Glasnow: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (79) vs RHP Daniel Espino: a strong bat at .145 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (78) vs RHP Daniel Espino: a strong bat at .144 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (77) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .149 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (75) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .143 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .146 against lefties this year.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .148 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays