Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, October 7, 2026
Top rbis spot: Jo Adell
Jo Adell (CLE) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Sean Newcomb. The righty is driving in runs at .236 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .059 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 19% of his trips. And Sean Newcomb has been stingy with runs against lefties lately — .000 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Sean Newcomb, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (93) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .132 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (80) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .137 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Manny Machado (SD) (79) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .139 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (79) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .109 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (77) vs RHP Nick Martinez: a strong bat at .128 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.238).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (76) vs RHP Tyler Glasnow: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (76) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .138 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Platoon edges to target
- Jo Adell (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .236 against lefties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .134 against lefties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Jackson Chourio (MIL) at 93.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays