MatchWiz

Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill — our top-20 calls on him have hit 68% this season. His matchups, projections, and the full graded record.

Last scored board
81.2
Triples · vs MIL · 2026-10-07
Our calls on him · hits
68%
1+ hit in 28/41 top-20 calls
Games graded
163
this season, box-score final
Jackson Merrill
CFBats LThrows RSan Diego Padres
Triples81.2/100proj 0#2Doubles76/100proj 0.2#2Hits70.1/100proj 1#6Total Bases53.3/100proj 1.6#5Fantasy Points45.4/100proj 6.4#11H+R+RBI44.6/100proj 1.7#11Singles40.5/100proj 0.6#10Walks39.1/100proj 0.4#12RBIs37.1/100proj 0.4#13Home Runs36.5/100proj 0.1#12Stolen Bases31.6/100proj 0.1#6Runs28.6/100proj 0.5#14

Last scored matchup

Jackson isn't on today's slate. He was last scored yesterday, at home against Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, where he landed on triples (81.2/100), doubles (76/100), hits (70.1/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.

Recent form

Jackson is 11-for-38 (.289) over his last 10 games, in line with his .254 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Jackson has 26 home runs and 57 extra-base hits in 635 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a left-handed bat

Jackson hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Jackson has recorded at least one hit in 100 of 162 games he's batted in — 62% — with 45 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Jackson is hitting .261 at home (80-for-307) and .247 on the road (81-for-328) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

Against Milwaukee Brewers

Jackson is 3-for-17 (.176) against Milwaukee Brewers in our log, over 4 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 17 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

His best game in the log

Jackson's biggest night was Wednesday, September 30, 2026 against CHC — 2-for-3. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Jackson have graded

We've ranked Jackson a top-20 hitter matchup 41 times this season. He got a hit in 28 of them — 68%. That's the model reading him well, and it's the number we'd point to if you asked why we keep ranking him. It's also a season-sized sample on one player, which is smaller than it sounds; don't extrapolate it into a promise about tonight.

Where he lands across our boards

Jackson was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: triples graded 81.2/100 while runs came in at 28.6/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Jackson gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.

What we'd flag

Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Wednesday, October 7vs MIL41000
Tuesday, October 6vs MIL41010
Sunday, October 4@ MIL41000
Saturday, October 3@ MIL50000
Wednesday, September 30vs CHC32010
Tuesday, September 29vs CHC42002
Saturday, September 26vs AZ42021
Friday, September 25vs AZ21010
Thursday, September 24@ LAD41010
Wednesday, September 23@ LAD40000
Tuesday, September 22@ LAD40000
Sunday, September 20vs MIA41010

Jackson Merrill — FAQ

Is Jackson Merrill playing today?

Jackson Merrill isn't in a confirmed lineup on the current slate, and was last scored on Wednesday, October 7, 2026. This page updates with fresh projections as soon as he's back in one.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Jackson Merrill graded?

In the 41 games where our model ranked Jackson a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 28 times — 68%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Jackson Merrill been hitting lately?

Jackson is 11-for-38 (.289) over his last 10 games, against .254 on the season across 635 at-bats in our log, with 26 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Jackson Merrill appear on?

Jackson was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — triples, doubles, hits, total bases, fantasy points. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Jackson Merrill's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).