MatchWiz

Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: runs at 80.1/100.

Today's top board
80.1
Runs · vs MIN
Our calls on him · hits
57%
1+ hit in 13/23 top-20 calls
Games graded
126
this season, box-score final
Jackson Merrill
CFBats LThrows RSan Diego Padres
Runs80.1/100proj 0.5#14Total Bases79.6/100proj 1.8#5RBIs71/100proj 0.5#20H+R+RBI68.3/100proj 1.8#26Fantasy Points64.6/100proj 7.4#9Hits58.7/100proj 1#41Doubles48.6/100proj 0.2#27Home Runs41.1/100proj 0.2#13Walks39.2/100proj 0.4#52Stolen Bases37.3/100proj 0.1#20Singles36.2/100proj 0.6#56Triples17/100proj 0#29

Today's matchup

Jackson draws Minnesota Twins at home today. He shows up on 12 boards — runs (80.1/100, #14), total bases (79.6/100, #5), rbis (71/100, #20), h+r+rbi (68.3/100, #26). We've got him at 0.5 on the runs board. That's one of the stronger spots on the board today. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Jackson is 7-for-36 (.194) over his last 10 games, in line with his .238 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Jackson has 20 home runs and 42 extra-base hits in 488 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a left-handed bat

Jackson hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Jackson has recorded at least one hit in 74 of 125 games he's batted in — 59% — with 32 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

Jackson is hitting .246 at home (58-for-236) and .230 on the road (58-for-252) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Jackson's biggest night was Saturday, August 22, 2026 against MIN — 2-for-3 with 1 homer, 2 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Jackson have graded

In the 23 games where we ranked Jackson a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 13 times — 57%. Middle of the road, which is what most players look like. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

Jackson was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: runs graded 80.1/100 while triples came in at 17/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Jackson gets scored the same way a backup infielder does — same inputs, same scale, no thumb on it. What he's done against arms of this handedness, what this particular pitcher and bullpen give up, his likely plate appearances, the ballpark, the conditions, his recent form. The weighting behind those is ours and gets re-tuned weekly against what actually happened. The output is public and graded, which is the only claim worth making.

What we'd flag

Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22vs MIN32112
Friday, August 21vs MIN40000
Wednesday, August 19@ NYM40000
Tuesday, August 18@ NYM40000
Monday, August 17@ NYM41000
Sunday, August 16@ CLE31010
Saturday, August 15@ CLE30000
Friday, August 14@ CLE30020
Wednesday, August 12vs MIL41001
Tuesday, August 11vs MIL42011
Monday, August 10vs MIL31112
Sunday, August 9vs HOU42111

Jackson Merrill — FAQ

Who is Jackson Merrill facing today?

Jackson Merrill is hosting Minnesota Twins on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 80.1/100 on our runs board, ranked #14.

What is Jackson Merrill's projection today?

We project Jackson for 0.5 on the runs board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Jackson Merrill graded?

In the 23 games where our model ranked Jackson a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 13 times — 57%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Jackson Merrill been hitting lately?

Jackson is 7-for-36 (.194) over his last 10 games, against .238 on the season across 488 at-bats in our log, with 20 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Jackson Merrill appear on?

Jackson was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — runs, total bases, rbis, h+r+rbi, fantasy points. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Jackson Merrill's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).