MatchWiz

José Caballero

José Caballero — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: stolen bases at 69.1/100.

Today's top board
69.1
Stolen Bases · vs TOR
Our calls on him · hits
50%
record builds as games settle
Games graded
105
this season, box-score final
José Caballero
SSBats RThrows RNew York Yankees
Stolen Bases69.1/100proj 0.5#2Fantasy Points56.2/100proj 7.4#30Walks29.8/100proj 0.3#218RBIs18.7/100proj 0.4#217Runs17.2/100proj 0.4#263Singles17.1/100proj 0.5#242Hits11.4/100proj 0.8#264Total Bases10.8/100proj 1.2#267Home Runs9.7/100proj 0.1#244Doubles7/100proj 0.1#265H+R+RBI7/100proj 1.4#263Triples0/100proj 0#270

Today's matchup

Today it's Toronto Blue Jays for José, at home. He shows up on 12 boards — stolen bases (69.1/100, #2), fantasy points (56.2/100, #30), walks (29.8/100, #218), rbis (18.7/100, #217). We've got him at 0.5 on the stolen bases board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

He's in a cold stretch

José is 1-for-21 (.048) across his last 10 games, down from .240 on the season. Slumps this size are mostly noise at this sample — 21 at-bats is a fortnight, not a trend — and the model treats it that way, discounting the cold run rather than writing him off. If the matchup underneath is good, he'll still grade well here. That's a feature, and sometimes it's wrong.

What kind of hitter he is

José has 12 home runs and 24 extra-base hits in 329 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

José hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

José has recorded at least one hit in 55 of 99 games he's batted in — 56% — with 22 multi-hit games among them. That's a boom-or-bust profile. He'll carry a game outright and then go quiet for three, so his hits-board score tends to sit below hitters with worse power and better contact.

Home and away

José is hitting .211 at home (30-for-142) and .262 on the road (49-for-187) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

Against Toronto Blue Jays

José is 1-for-11 (.091) against Toronto Blue Jays in our log, over 4 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 11 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

No graded record on him yet

We haven't ranked José a top-20 hitter matchup often enough this season to have a record worth publishing — 4 times so far. He's appeared in 105 graded games, so the log below is real; there just isn't a track record on our calls to show. It'll build here if the matchups start landing his way.

Where he lands across our boards

José was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: stolen bases graded 69.1/100 while triples came in at 0/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

José's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working. For José specifically, we don't have a meaningful graded record on him yet.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Sunday, August 23vs TOR40000
Saturday, August 22vs TOR30000
Friday, August 21vs TOR20001
Thursday, August 20@ BAL40001
Wednesday, August 19@ 00000
Tuesday, August 18@ BAL10000
Sunday, August 16@ TOR21011
Saturday, August 15@ 00000
Thursday, August 13vs SEA20000
Saturday, August 8vs ATL30000
Friday, August 7@ 00000
Wednesday, August 5@ 00000

José Caballero — FAQ

Who is José Caballero facing today?

José Caballero is hosting Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 69.1/100 on our stolen bases board, ranked #2.

What is José Caballero's projection today?

We project José for 0.5 on the stolen bases board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How has José Caballero been hitting lately?

José is 1-for-21 (.048) over his last 10 games, against .240 on the season across 329 at-bats in our log, with 12 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does José Caballero appear on?

José was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — stolen bases, fantasy points, walks, rbis, runs. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are José Caballero's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).