MatchWiz

Mauricio Dubón

Mauricio Dubón — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: singles at 59.7/100.

Today's top board
59.7
Singles · @ MIL
Our calls on him · hits
63%
1+ hit in 5/8 top-20 calls
Games graded
122
this season, box-score final
Mauricio Dubón
LFBats RThrows RAtlanta Braves
Singles59.7/100proj 0.6#27Hits51.4/100proj 1#46H+R+RBI41.1/100proj 1.6#55Total Bases38.3/100proj 1.5#66Runs37.2/100proj 0.5#64RBIs33.3/100proj 0.4#58Doubles32.3/100proj 0.2#55Walks25.9/100proj 0.3#82Fantasy Points22.8/100proj 5.8#76Home Runs8.3/100proj 0.1#74Triples5.4/100proj 0#68Stolen Bases2.6/100proj 0#83

Today's matchup

Mauricio is on the road against Milwaukee Brewers on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate. He shows up on 12 boards — singles (59.7/100, #27), hits (51.4/100, #46), h+r+rbi (41.1/100, #55), total bases (38.3/100, #66). We've got him at 0.6 on the singles board. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

Recent form

Mauricio is 9-for-33 (.273) over his last 10 games, in line with his .268 season line. No hot streak to fade, no slump to buy — the matchup is doing the work in his score, which is the normal case. The full game log is below.

What kind of hitter he is

Mauricio has 10 home runs and 35 extra-base hits in 455 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a right-handed bat

Mauricio hits from the right side, so the platoon math runs the other way from a lefty's. Right-handed bats face right-handed pitching most of the time, meaning his baseline is built against the harder side and a left-handed starter is the upgrade. That's why a righty's score can jump on a day nothing else about the matchup changed. The model weighs his rates against the specific handedness he's drawing rather than a blended season number, which is where a lot of the day-to-day movement in his score comes from.

Floor and ceiling

Mauricio has recorded at least one hit in 82 of 122 games he's batted in — 67% — with 31 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Mauricio is hitting .287 at home (62-for-216) and .251 on the road (60-for-239) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

His best game in the log

Mauricio's biggest night was Thursday, August 20, 2026 at CWS — 3-for-4. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Mauricio have graded

In the 8 games where we ranked Mauricio a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 5 times — 63%. That's a thin sample and we'd treat it as such. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

Mauricio was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: singles graded 59.7/100 while stolen bases came in at 2.6/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Take the name off Mauricio and the model still produces the same number, because it's scoring the matchup rather than the player. His splits against this handedness, what the opposing starter and bullpen actually allow, how many plate appearances he's likely to get, the park, the weather, how he's swinging lately. All of it lands on a 0–100 scale against everyone else playing today. We don't publish how it's weighted. We publish every result it produces.

What we'd flag

Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Saturday, August 22@ MIL42000
Friday, August 21@ MIL42000
Thursday, August 20@ CWS43010
Wednesday, August 19@ MIN21000
Tuesday, August 18@ MIN30000
Monday, August 17@ MIN30000
Saturday, August 15vs AZ40000
Friday, August 14vs AZ31000
Wednesday, August 12vs NYM40000
Tuesday, August 11vs NYM20001
Monday, August 10vs NYM51002
Saturday, August 8@ NYY41010

Mauricio Dubón — FAQ

Who is Mauricio Dubón facing today?

Mauricio Dubón is facing Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 59.7/100 on our singles board, ranked #27.

What is Mauricio Dubón's projection today?

We project Mauricio for 0.6 on the singles board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Mauricio Dubón graded?

In the 8 games where our model ranked Mauricio a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 5 times — 63%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Mauricio Dubón been hitting lately?

Mauricio is 9-for-33 (.273) over his last 10 games, against .268 on the season across 455 at-bats in our log, with 10 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Mauricio Dubón appear on?

Mauricio was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — singles, hits, h+r+rbi, total bases, runs. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Mauricio Dubón's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).