MatchWiz

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsThursday, July 30, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 30, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61%a +11% return.

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.3% K / BF

vs LHB27.2%
vs RHB27.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30@ TOR7
Jul 5@ ATL5
Jul 10vs BOS7
Jul 19@ PHI10
Jul 25vs LAD7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)13.8%3.0
2. Xavier Edwards (L)17.6%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)16.4%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)29.3%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)27.7%3.0
6. Griffin Conine (L)26.4%2.8
7. Jakob Marsee (L)21.7%2.0
8. Graham Pauley (L)23.4%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline-125-103
BRBetRivers-108-122
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-121-105
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-104-122

We project 6.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Nolan McLean's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB25.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ PIT4
Jun 30vs LAA5
Jul 7@ MIA5
Jul 18vs SF7
Jul 25@ TEX5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Tommy Edman (L)19.0%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)22.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.5%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)22.9%3.0
5. Mookie Betts (R)17.3%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)18.4%2.8
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.2%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)27.0%2.0
9. Enrique Hernández (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOLBetOnline+118-154
BRBetRivers+118-159
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+117-149
FDFanDuel+106-136

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryan Woo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB25.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29@ BAL8
Jul 4@ CLE11
Jul 10vs ATH9
Jul 19@ TOR5
Jul 25vs HOU10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)17.9%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.5%3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.0%3.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)25.4%3.0
5. Spencer Jones (L)30.1%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.1%2.4
7. Anthony Volpe (R)25.1%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)27.1%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-130
BOLBetOnline-108-120
BRBetRivers+100-134
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings+102-129
FANFanatics-105-125
FDFanDuel+102-130

We project 6.5 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Sean Burke's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB27.0%
vs RHB23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29vs DET3
Jul 5vs MIN6
Jul 10@ WSH6
Jul 20vs PIT5
Jul 25@ PHI7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.7%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.9%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.0%3.0
4. Randal Grichuk (R)24.5%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)24.3%2.2
6. Everson Pereira (R)26.7%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (R)23.7%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.0%2.0
9. Edgar Quero (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline+112-145
BRBetRivers+120-162
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+123-157
FDFanDuel+124-160

We project 5.7 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB27.0%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30@ COL8
Jul 5@ ATH8
Jul 11vs CLE6
Jul 19@ MIL9
Jul 25vs SD2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)25.5%3.0
2. Francisco Lindor (L)20.8%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)20.3%3.0
4. Carson Benge (L)22.1%3.0
5. Luis Robert Jr. (R)23.8%2.1
6. Brett Baty (L)24.6%2.0
7. Marcus Semien (R)22.4%2.0
8. Jorge Polanco (L)23.3%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-169+130
BRBetRivers-143+107
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-149+117
FDFanDuel-148+116

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs NYY9
Jul 4@ LAA7
Jul 10@ NYM3
Jul 19vs TB5
Jul 25vs TOR3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.4%3.0
2. Jacob Wilson (R)14.7%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.7%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L)21.6%3.0
5. Tommy White (R)22.0%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)24.3%2.9
7. Jeff McNeil (L)14.8%2.0
8. Carlos Cortes (L)16.6%2.0
9. Donovan Walton (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BOLBetOnline-152+116
BRBetRivers-162+120
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-157+123
FANFanatics-145+110
FDFanDuel-142+112

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Sonny Gray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs ATL2
Jul 4@ COL4
Jul 10vs COL4
Jul 19@ SEA6
Jul 25vs LAA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.9%3.0
2. Luis Rengifo (R)19.9%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)21.9%3.0
4. Ty France (R)21.8%3.0
5. Jackson Merrill (L)21.3%3.0
6. Luis Campusano (R)21.9%3.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.3%2.0
8. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.7%2.0
9. Jase Bowen (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-106-122
BRBetRivers-104-129
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-107-119
FDFanDuel-102-125

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Robbie Ray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs ATL5
Jun 30@ CHC4
Jul 5@ LAD5
Jul 10vs TOR3
Jul 20@ ATL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)14.1%3.0
2. Heliot Ramos (R)24.8%3.0
3. Bryce Eldridge (L)22.9%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)26.5%2.4
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.7%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)26.6%2.0
7. Daniel Susac (R)19.9%2.0
8. Grant McCray (L)33.8%2.0
9. Christian Koss (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-116-111
BRBetRivers-108-124
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings-117-109
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-106-120

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

JP Sears's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs KC4
Jul 1@ KC4
Jul 8vs NYY5
Jul 19@ BOS3
Jul 24vs CLE3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)22.9%3.0
2. Ezequiel Duran (R)25.6%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)19.9%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)26.8%3.0
5. Justin Foscue (R)23.7%2.4
6. Cam Cauley (R)22.0%2.0
7. Nicky Lopez (L)19.2%2.0
8. Austin Wynns (R)20.9%2.0
9. Alejandro Osuna (L)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BRBetRivers-165+123
DKDraftKings-163+127
FANFanatics-165+125

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane McClanahan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs MIA4
Jul 3@ CHC2
Jul 9vs MIL2
Jul 19@ AZ3
Jul 25vs CIN8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.4%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)27.2%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)24.0%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)19.5%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)26.1%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.2%2.7
7. Michael Conforto (L)25.7%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)19.1%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+130-175
BOLBetOnline+136-179
BOVBovada+140-185
DKDraftKings+124-158
FDFanDuel+140-180

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Andre Pallante's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB17.9%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 24@ BOS3
May 30@ PIT3
Jul 9vs CLE5
Jul 17@ CHC7
Jul 22@ CLE2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)25.7%3.0
2. John Rave (L)26.9%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.6%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)21.4%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)18.7%3.0
6. Nick Loftin (R)18.3%2.1
7. Isaac Collins (L)24.0%2.0
8. Josh Rojas (L)19.6%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+125
BOLBetOnline-161+124
BRBetRivers-162+120
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-163+128
FANFanatics-170+130
FDFanDuel-162+126

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bailey Ober's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ TB5
Jun 30vs TB0
Jul 6vs PHI7
Jul 11@ BAL9
Jul 19vs SD1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)19.1%3.0
2. Ryan Jeffers (R)17.6%3.0
3. Royce Lewis (R)19.7%3.0
4. Josh Bell (R)21.5%3.0
5. Kody Clemens (L)22.0%3.0
6. Luke Keaschall (R)20.5%2.9
7. Brooks Lee (R)21.5%2.0
8. Alex Jackson (R)26.7%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-127-102
BRBetRivers-139+105
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-131+103
FDFanDuel-132+104

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19@ NYY5
Jun 24vs MIL6
Jun 30@ MIL8
Jul 18@ COL2
Jul 24@ STL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)18.8%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.4%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.7%2.6
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)32.4%2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.5%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.5%2.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)22.8%2.0
8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0
9. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-141+108
BRBetRivers-125-107
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-140+110
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-132+104

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Rhett Lowder's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 22@ SD4
Jul 3vs NYM2
Jul 8@ PIT5
Jul 19vs TEX2
Jul 24@ BAL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)26.1%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)20.0%3.0
3. Dylan Crews (R)23.3%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)17.8%2.1
5. Daylen Lile (L)19.0%2.0
6. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.1%2.0
7. José Tena (L)26.5%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.0%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+120-156
BRBetRivers+110-148
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+111-142
FANFanatics+110-145
FDFanDuel+108-138

We project 4.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.2 BF

Expected batters faced14.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.0%2.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)22.0%2.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)21.7%2.0
4. Tyler Stephenson (R)27.1%2.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.5%2.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)30.3%1.3
7. Dane Myers (R)25.7%1.0
8. Noelvi Marte (R)20.0%1.0
9. Matt McLain (R)28.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Yohan Ramírez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.0 BF

Expected batters faced15.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 1vs MIL5
May 7vs MIN2
May 13@ CIN4
May 18vs NYM6
May 23@ ATL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)19.2%2.0
2. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.3%2.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.0%2.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)20.3%2.0
5. Ozzie Albies (L)21.4%2.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)15.4%2.0
7. Dominic Smith (L)17.1%1.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.5%1.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline-114-114
BRBetRivers-117-114
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-117-109
FDFanDuel-120-106

We project 3.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jake Irvin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB24.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26@ SD2
Jul 2vs SD3
Jul 8vs COL5
Jul 17@ NYY5
Jul 24@ NYM9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)16.7%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)22.7%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)21.1%3.0
4. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.1%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)15.0%2.6
6. Cal Raleigh (L)25.0%2.0
7. Luke Raley (L)28.7%2.0
8. Weston Wilson (R)23.3%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-156+120
BRBetRivers-130-103
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-135+106
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-125-102

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB18.1%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.1 BF

Expected batters faced15.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)20.1%2.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.0%2.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)24.2%2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)26.9%2.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)13.1%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)17.0%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)26.4%1.1
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.3%1.0
9. Connor Wong (R)26.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mason Barnett's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB17.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12@ SF5
Jun 17vs COL1
Jun 24@ NYM5
Jul 5vs STL2
Jul 11@ CIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.6%3.0
2. Jordan Walker (R)24.9%2.8
3. Alec Burleson (L)17.1%2.0
4. Iván Herrera (R)21.3%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)20.5%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.2%2.0
7. Bryan Torres (L)20.9%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)17.0%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-122-106
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-127-101
FANFanatics-120-110
FDFanDuel-115-111

We project 3.5 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Javier Assad's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%
vs RHB23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.2 BF

Expected batters faced13.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.6%2.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.7%2.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)19.4%2.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.8%2.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.7%1.3
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)25.2%1.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)19.1%1.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)26.0%1.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)23.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cole Winn's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +11% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.