MatchWiz

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsWednesday, July 29, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 29, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 61% ratea +10% return.

Δ1.5Tarik SkubalNEW1:10 PM BAL @ DETwe project 7.0 K vs the 8.5 lineUnder 8.51uDKDraftKings-104

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

PROJ21 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch
#Pitcher · MatchupScore
★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 7.0 K, but the book line is 8.5 — so the play is Under 8.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 61% ratea +10% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.9% K / BF

vs LHB28.6%
vs RHB29.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30@ NYY9
Jul 7vs ATH9
Jul 12vs PHI5
Jul 18@ LAA9
Jul 24vs KC12

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)21.3%3.0
2. Pete Alonso (R)23.9%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.5%3.0
4. Tyler O'Neill (R)22.0%3.0
5. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R)21.8%2.9
6. Coby Mayo (R)26.4%2.0
7. Leody Taveras (R)26.1%2.0
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.0%2.0
9. Chadwick Tromp (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 8.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline-114-114
BRBetRivers+102-136
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings-122-104
FANFanatics-120-110
FDFanDuel+102-130

We project 7.0 K vs the 8.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.5% K / BF

vs LHB31.3%
vs RHB25.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30vs DET5
Jul 6@ TB8
Jul 11@ WSH6
Jul 19vs LAD8
Jul 24@ PHI12

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.6%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.1%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)29.6%3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)23.0%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (L)18.8%2.9
7. Tristan Peters (L)20.3%2.0
8. Chase Meidroth (R)21.9%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOLBetOnline+104-135
BRBetRivers+115-155
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+100-128
FDFanDuel+112-142

We project 7.3 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%
vs RHB29.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ SF10
Jul 4vs NYM3
Jul 10@ STL5
Jul 17vs TEX6
Jul 23vs SD11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)24.7%3.0
2. Francisco Lindor (R)17.8%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)17.6%3.0
4. Luis Robert Jr. (R)23.2%3.0
5. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.1%3.0
6. Jared Young (L)24.0%2.1
7. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.1%2.0
8. Marcus Semien (R)20.6%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada-105-125
FANFanatics-105-125
FDFanDuel-104-122

We project 6.5 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.7% K / BF

vs LHB29.3%
vs RHB27.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ NYM6
Jul 4@ KC9
Jul 9@ CIN11
Jul 18vs NYM7
Jul 24vs NYY9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)16.4%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)24.9%3.0
3. Liam Hicks (L)19.4%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R)20.7%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)22.0%2.5
6. Kyle Stowers (L)27.6%2.0
7. Esteury Ruiz (R)22.0%2.0
8. Brian Navarreto (R)23.0%2.0
9. Jakob Marsee (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BRBetRivers+110-148
BOVBovada+125-165
FDFanDuel+126-162

We project 6.2 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jesús Luzardo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB25.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)28.9%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)25.0%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)14.4%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)29.6%3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.8%3.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)24.8%2.0
7. Jo Adell (R)24.0%2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R)23.9%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-124-108
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-133+104
FDFanDuel-125-102

We project 6.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Hayden Wesneski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB28.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29vs NYM3
Jul 5@ SEA7
Jul 11@ SD1
Jul 19vs CWS9
Jul 24@ BOS9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)26.1%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)20.0%3.0
3. Brady House (R)25.7%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)17.8%3.0
5. Harry Ford (R)21.9%2.8
6. Daylen Lile (L)19.0%2.0
7. Jacob Young (R)19.4%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.0%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+100-130
BRBetRivers-109-122
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings-104-123
FDFanDuel+106-136

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB19.4%
vs RHB26.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs TEX4
Jul 7@ MIN7
Jul 12@ MIA9
Jul 19vs PIT7
Jul 24@ TB4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (R)25.3%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)22.4%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)23.1%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)29.5%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.3%3.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)20.5%2.0
7. Dane Myers (R)22.6%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (R)22.0%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOLBetOnline+120-156
BRBetRivers+120-159
BOVBovada+120-160
FDFanDuel+124-158

We project 5.9 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB26.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs LAD9
Jun 30@ HOU5
Jul 5@ NYY9
Jul 11vs LAA6
Jul 20@ CLE3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)25.7%3.0
2. Lane Thomas (R)26.9%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.6%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)21.4%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)16.6%2.0
6. Nick Loftin (R)18.3%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)18.7%2.0
8. Isaac Collins (L)24.0%2.0
9. Josh Rojas (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline+104-135
BRBetRivers+105-139
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings+102-130
FDFanDuel+104-132

We project 5.4 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.6% K / BF

vs LHB27.0%
vs RHB25.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs PHI6
Jul 3@ ATL7
Jul 8vs KC5
Jul 16@ PHI7
Jul 22@ MIL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.3%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)19.2%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.0%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (L)21.4%2.3
5. Michael Harris II (L)20.3%2.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)15.4%2.0
7. Austin Riley (R)29.4%2.0
8. Joey Bart (R)23.1%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)18.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOVBovada+105-135
FDFanDuel+104-132

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 2@ ATL1
Jul 6vs MIL7
Jul 12vs ATL4
Jul 18@ AZ6
Jul 24vs CIN8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.4%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)27.2%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)24.0%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)19.5%2.6
5. Ian Happ (L)26.1%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.2%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)25.7%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)19.1%2.0
9. Pedro Ramírez (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BRBetRivers-159+118
BOVBovada-165+125
FDFanDuel-162+128

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Dustin May's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs CIN7
Jul 6@ STL2
Jul 11@ PIT6
Jul 18vs MIA9
Jul 24vs COL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)14.1%3.0
2. Heliot Ramos (R)24.8%3.0
3. Bryce Eldridge (L)22.9%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)26.5%3.0
5. Casey Schmitt (R)19.5%3.0
6. Drew Gilbert (L)26.9%2.3
7. Willy Adames (R)26.6%2.0
8. Grant McCray (L)33.8%2.0
9. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+130-169
BRBetRivers+117-157
BOVBovada+135-180
DKDraftKings+129-165
FDFanDuel+136-174

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%
vs RHB22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs KC3
Jul 2@ CLE0
Jul 8vs BOS2
Jul 18@ TOR5
Jul 24vs HOU3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)25.4%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.5%3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R)26.7%3.0
4. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.0%3.0
5. Trent Grisham (L)17.9%2.4
6. Anthony Volpe (R)25.1%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.1%2.0
8. Max Schuemann (R)23.2%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-159+122
BRBetRivers-162+120
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-160+125
FANFanatics-145+110
FDFanDuel-146+114

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.8 BF

Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs ATL6
Jul 3@ COL2
Jul 8vs TOR2
Jul 18@ SEA5
Jul 24vs LAA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)24.5%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.7%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)22.9%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)16.8%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)27.9%3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.3%3.0
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)27.5%2.8
8. Cooper Pratt (R)18.2%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline+112-145
BRBetRivers+116-155
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings+114-146
FANFanatics+110-145
FDFanDuel+106-136

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB25.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1@ CLE7
Jul 8vs LAA7
Jul 12vs HOU4
Jul 18@ ATL7
Jul 24vs SEA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.6%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.7%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)17.0%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)19.7%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)15.7%3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)20.4%2.3
7. Richie Palacios (L)22.0%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (R)22.5%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOLBetOnline+107-139
BRBetRivers+107-141
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+101-129
FANFanatics+110-145
FDFanDuel+114-146

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.4% K / BF

vs LHB29.2%
vs RHB22.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.4 BF

Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs CIN4
Jul 2@ PHI6
Jul 8vs ATL8
Jul 18@ CLE9
Jul 24vs CHC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Corbin Carroll (L)23.2%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.1%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.4%2.4
4. Ketel Marte (L)18.4%2.0
5. Max Kepler (L)19.6%2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)21.2%2.0
7. Tim Tawa (R)21.5%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)22.0%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-156+120
DKDraftKings-159+124
FDFanDuel-162+126

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jared Jones's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%
vs RHB19.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26vs WSH7
Jul 3@ CIN4
Jul 9vs CHC4
Jul 18@ HOU8
Jul 24vs ATL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)21.8%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)21.1%3.0
3. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.0%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)23.8%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)26.7%3.0
6. Eduardo Valencia (R)22.0%2.6
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)25.1%2.0
8. Matt Vierling (R)22.0%2.0
9. Javier Báez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-143+110
BRBetRivers-141+107
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-142+111
FDFanDuel-130+102

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Trevor Rogers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.2%
vs RHB19.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29@ TOR4
Jul 4@ ATL4
Jul 9vs KC6
Jul 18@ PHI7
Jul 24vs LAD3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)25.6%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)21.6%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)25.5%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)13.8%3.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)18.7%3.0
6. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.8%2.1
7. Austin Riley (R)25.0%2.0
8. Eli White (R)22.0%2.0
9. Joey Bart (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BOVBovada-150+115
FDFanDuel-146+114

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Sean Manaea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30vs SD2
Jul 7@ BAL7
Jul 12@ CIN3
Jul 18vs MIN4
Jul 24@ PIT4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.5%3.0
2. Jordan Walker (R)21.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)18.4%3.0
4. Iván Herrera (R)18.6%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)23.0%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)19.0%2.4
7. Nathan Church (L)21.7%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)16.1%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline-110-118
BRBetRivers-122-108
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings+109-139
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel-102-125

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)25.5%3.0
2. Francisco Lindor (L)20.8%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)20.3%3.0
4. Carson Benge (L)22.1%3.0
5. Jared Young (L)20.5%3.0
6. Jorge Polanco (L)22.0%2.0
7. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.4%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)24.6%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOLBetOnline-119-109
BRBetRivers-112-120
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-121-106
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-115-111

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

AJ Smith-Shawver's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 9@ CWS5
Jul 18vs TB5
Jul 24vs TOR3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)13.8%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.5%3.0
3. Jonah Heim (R)19.9%3.0
4. Colby Thomas (R)25.6%3.0
5. Tommy White (R)22.0%2.5
6. Jeff McNeil (L)15.8%2.0
7. Henry Bolte (R)28.5%2.0
8. Alika Williams (R)21.8%2.0
9. Lawrence Butler (L)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-120-108
BRBetRivers-105-127
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-116-110
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-125-102

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Patrick Sandoval's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB18.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ PIT6
Jul 3vs BAL6
Jul 9vs PHI5
Jul 17@ COL6
Jul 22@ SEA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)13.2%3.0
2. José Ramírez (L)16.3%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)16.3%3.0
4. Travis Bazzana (L)21.3%3.0
5. Brayan Rocchio (L)18.4%3.0
6. Kyle Manzardo (L)29.7%2.8
7. Angel Martínez (L)25.0%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)22.5%2.0
9. Petey Halpin (L)18.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline-108-120
BRBetRivers-109-122
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-104-123
FANFanatics+100-130
FDFanDuel-104-122

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Brady Singer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB20.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs BOS6
Jun 28@ CLE6
Jul 5vs TOR5
Jul 12@ TB2
Jul 22vs CIN3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.6%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)22.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.5%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)22.9%2.7
5. Mookie Betts (R)17.3%2.0
6. Tommy Edman (L)19.0%2.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L)18.4%2.0
8. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.2%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+112-145
BRBetRivers+110-148
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+123-157
FANFanatics+115-150
FDFanDuel+112-142

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB24.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.4 BF

Expected batters faced18.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15@ PHI1
Jun 21vs SF6
Jun 27@ STL4
Jul 2@ COL2
Jul 24vs SD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)25.1%2.4
2. Bryson Stott (L)22.1%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)21.2%2.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)18.9%2.0
5. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.0%2.0
6. Brandon Marsh (L)22.9%2.0
7. Bryan De La Cruz (R)22.8%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)20.0%2.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
BOLBetOnline-135+104
BRBetRivers-143+108
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-129+101
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-128+100

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Gusto's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 8@ LAD7
Jul 17vs CIN6
Jul 22vs WSH5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)18.9%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.0%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)19.6%3.0
4. Ty France (R)22.0%2.8
5. Jackson Merrill (L)23.3%2.0
6. Luis Rengifo (L)16.1%2.0
7. Gavin Sheets (L)19.2%2.0
8. Luis Campusano (R)22.9%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BRBetRivers+112-148
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+124-159
FANFanatics+125-165
FDFanDuel+118-150

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Gabriel Hughes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%
vs RHB16.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ PIT5
Jun 15vs TB4
Jun 29@ ATH2
Jul 6vs COL3
Jul 22@ PHI5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)19.4%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.8%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)21.5%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)21.0%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)17.7%3.0
6. Luke Raley (L)25.0%2.0
7. Mitch Garver (R)25.5%2.0
8. J.P. Crawford (L)20.1%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+126-164
BRBetRivers+125-167
BOVBovada+135-180
DKDraftKings+122-157
FDFanDuel+138-178

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.1% K / BF

vs LHB15.7%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8vs HOU6
Jun 14vs TB1
Jul 10@ MIN0
Jul 18vs DET3
Jul 24@ SF3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)18.4%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.4%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)15.6%3.0
4. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)22.0%2.8
5. Jose Altuve (R)21.1%2.0
6. Taylor Trammell (L)27.4%2.0
7. Christian Walker (R)26.9%2.0
8. Lucas Spence (L)26.7%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+113-147
BRBetRivers-109-122
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+122-156
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+118-148

We project 4.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Grayson Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.5% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29vs SF1
Jul 5vs MIL3
Jul 10@ LAD5
Jul 19vs STL3
Jul 24@ WSH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)19.2%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)28.8%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)24.2%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)26.2%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.2%2.3
6. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.0%2.0
7. Jared Triolo (R)22.0%2.0
8. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)22.0%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-125-103
BRBetRivers-125-107
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-145+114
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-132+104

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.6% K / BF

vs LHB17.6%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ AZ4
Jun 12vs SEA0
Jun 17vs KC2
Jun 28@ BAL3
Jul 18@ ATH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)14.2%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.6%3.0
4. George Springer (R)17.9%2.3
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)13.9%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)20.6%2.0
7. Ernie Clement (R)13.2%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)20.6%2.0
9. Davis Schneider (R)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BOLBetOnline-156+120
BRBetRivers-148+110
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-154+121
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-128+100

We project 3.5 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Zack Littell's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ LAA2
May 31vs NYY3
Jul 10@ CWS1
Jul 19vs WSH6
Jul 24@ MIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Masataka Yoshida (L)18.4%3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R)20.2%2.9
3. Willson Contreras (R)19.1%2.0
4. Wilyer Abreu (L)17.2%2.0
5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)24.2%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)16.3%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)23.8%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)23.2%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline-105-123
BRBetRivers-112-120
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-108-118
FDFanDuel-104-122

We project 3.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob Lopez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.9% K / BF

vs LHB16.9%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 18vs SD3
Jul 23@ DET3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)19.4%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)23.7%3.0
3. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.2%3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L)23.2%3.0
5. Josh Bell (L)23.5%2.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)17.9%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)16.1%2.0
8. Brooks Lee (L)16.6%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline-111-116
BRBetRivers-132+100
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-114-112
FANFanatics-110-120
FDFanDuel-113-115

We project 3.8 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Randy Dobnak's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB18.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.1 BF

Expected batters faced14.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ LAA1
Jun 25vs KC0
Jul 23@ TOR2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)21.3%2.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)22.8%2.0
3. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.5%2.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)24.4%2.0
5. Evan Carter (L)21.2%2.0
6. Jake Burger (R)24.3%1.1
7. Nicky Lopez (L)18.2%1.0
8. Josh Smith (L)18.4%1.0
9. Austin Wynns (R)26.3%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Casey Legumina's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.