Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, July 31, 2026)?

Paul Skenes (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.3 K against CIN. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, July 31, 2026: Paul Skenes (~7.3 K), Dylan Cease (~6.4 K), Hunter Greene (~6.4 K), Nathan Eovaldi (~5.7 K), Ranger Suarez (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, July 31, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61% — a +11% return.

2:20 PM ET

NYYaway

CHChomeTop matchup47 6:10 PM ET

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 7:05 PM ET

PHIaway

BALhomeTop matchup43 7:07 PM ET

STLaway

TORhomeTop matchup78 7:10 PM ET

AZaway

CLEhomeTop matchup16 7:10 PM ET

CWSaway

TBhomeTop matchup10 7:10 PM ET

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup31 7:15 PM ET

WSHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup34 8:15 PM ET

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup58 8:40 PM ET

KCaway

COLhomeTop matchup22 9:38 PM ET

MILaway

LAAhomeTop matchup38 9:40 PM ET

DETaway

ATHhomeTop matchup42 9:45 PM ET

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup28 10:10 PM ET

BOSaway

LADhomeTop matchup52 10:10 PM ET

MINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup49

PROJ29 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.8% K / BF

vs LHB28.6%

vs RHB28.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1@ PHI5

Jul 7vs ATL4

Jul 12vs MIL7

Jul 19@ CLE8

Jul 25vs CHC11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.0%3.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)22.0%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)21.7%3.0

4. Tyler Stephenson (R)27.1%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)23.5%3.0

6. Eugenio Suárez (R)30.3%2.2

7. Dane Myers (R)25.7%2.0

8. Noelvi Marte (R)20.0%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)28.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Paul Skenes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate31.8% K / BF

vs LHB31.0%

vs RHB29.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs TEX10

Jul 3@ SEA9

Jul 8@ SF11

Jul 20vs TB7

Jul 25@ BOS12

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.6%3.0

2. Jordan Walker (R)24.9%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.1%3.0

4. Iván Herrera (R)21.3%3.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)20.5%2.8

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.2%2.0

7. Bryan Torres (L)20.9%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)17.0%2.0

9. Nathan Church (L)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.9% K / BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4vs BAL7

Jul 10vs CHC12

Jul 19@ COL7

Jul 25@ STL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (L)18.8%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.4%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.7%3.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)32.4%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.5%3.0

6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.5%2.2

7. Endy Rodríguez (L)22.8%2.0

8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

9. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Greene's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26@ TOR9

Jul 2vs DET9

Jul 9vs LAA10

Jul 19@ ATL2

Jul 25vs SEA8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)18.4%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.4%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)15.6%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)26.9%3.0

5. Jose Altuve (R)21.1%3.0

6. Taylor Trammell (L)27.4%2.6

7. Yainer Diaz (R)17.4%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)24.7%2.0

9. Lucas Spence (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nathan Eovaldi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB26.3%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19@ SEA5

Jun 24@ COL9

Jun 29vs WSH8

Jul 5@ LAA5

Jul 26vs TOR6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.0%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)20.6%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)22.1%3.0

4. Max Muncy (L)23.4%3.0

5. Tommy Edman (R)21.0%2.6

6. Mookie Betts (R)14.0%2.0

7. Kyle Tucker (L)19.9%2.0

8. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.7%2.0

9. Dalton Rushing (L)26.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25@ PIT11

Jul 2vs LAA8

Jul 9@ MIA3

Jul 17vs SF6

Jul 24@ TEX0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)21.2%3.0

2. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.2%3.0

3. Royce Lewis (R)23.2%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)23.5%3.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)23.2%3.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)16.1%2.1

7. Brooks Lee (L)16.6%2.0

8. Alex Jackson (R)23.9%2.0

9. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryce Miller's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29vs SD4

Jul 4vs STL8

Jul 10@ CIN5

Jul 19vs MIN4

Jul 25@ PIT4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.6%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)26.8%3.0

3. Jasson Domínguez (R)21.5%3.0

4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)20.1%3.0

5. Spencer Jones (L)22.8%2.7

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)30.5%2.0

7. Anthony Volpe (R)20.7%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)26.8%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shota Imanaga's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26@ BOS0

Jul 1vs DET7

Jul 7@ TB3

Jul 12@ WSH2

Jul 26@ PHI5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.4%3.0

2. Seiya Suzuki (R)27.2%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)24.0%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)19.5%2.4

5. Ian Happ (L)26.1%2.0

6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.2%2.0

7. Michael Conforto (L)25.7%2.0

8. Carson Kelly (R)19.1%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27vs WSH8

Jul 4@ CIN5

Jul 10vs KC5

Jul 19@ HOU7

Jul 25vs ATL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)25.1%3.0

2. Bryson Stott (L)22.1%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.2%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.9%3.0

5. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.3%3.0

6. Brandon Marsh (L)22.9%3.0

7. Bryan De La Cruz (R)22.8%2.1

8. Justin Crawford (L)20.0%2.0

9. Edmundo Sosa (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Young's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28@ DET4

Jul 4vs TB3

Jul 10@ TEX4

Jul 19vs BAL4

Jul 25@ CWS7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Wyatt Langford (R)22.8%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.5%3.0

3. Brandon Nimmo (L)24.4%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)24.3%3.0

5. Justin Foscue (R)25.3%2.6

6. Cam Cauley (R)22.0%2.0

7. Nicky Lopez (L)18.2%2.0

8. Austin Wynns (R)26.3%2.0

9. Alejandro Osuna (L)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Brown's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29@ NYY10

Jul 5@ TEX4

Jul 11vs PHI5

Jul 19@ LAA5

Jul 25vs KC3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)14.7%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)26.4%3.0

3. Tommy White (R)22.0%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.7%3.0

5. Jonah Heim (L)21.6%2.1

6. Colby Thomas (R)26.8%2.0

7. Henry Bolte (R)22.6%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)24.3%2.0

9. Alika Williams (R)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Casey Mize's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1vs CIN7

Jul 6@ STL2

Jul 11@ PIT6

Jul 18vs MIA9

Jul 24vs COL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.5%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)23.3%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.6%3.0

4. Vaughn Grissom (R)16.8%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)23.3%3.0

6. Wade Meckler (L)26.2%2.3

7. Denzer Guzman (R)27.1%2.0

8. Josh Lowe (L)26.3%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.2%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27@ BAL9

Jul 3vs PIT2

Jul 8vs HOU9

Jul 19@ ATH2

Jul 25vs AZ2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)21.6%3.0

2. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)25.6%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)25.5%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)18.7%3.0

5. Ozzie Albies (R)13.8%2.6

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.8%2.0

7. Dominic Smith (L)20.2%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)27.5%2.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Foster Griffin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 1@ TOR4

Jul 6@ ATL6

Jul 11vs BOS6

Jul 20@ MIL6

Jul 26vs LAD3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Liam Hicks (L)13.8%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)17.6%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)16.4%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)29.3%3.0

5. Heriberto Hernández (R)27.7%2.4

6. Griffin Conine (L)26.4%2.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)21.7%2.0

8. Graham Pauley (L)23.4%2.0

9. Joe Mack (L)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs MIL6

Jun 27@ SF4

Jul 9@ PIT3

Jul 20vs SD4

Jul 25@ BAL8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.1%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)20.0%3.0

3. Dylan Crews (R)23.3%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)17.8%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)19.0%3.0

6. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.1%2.1

7. José Tena (L)26.5%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.0%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryce Elder's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ ATL2

Jul 9vs COL4

Jul 26vs LAA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.9%3.0

2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.7%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)21.9%3.0

4. Ty France (R)21.8%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)21.3%2.8

6. Luis Rengifo (R)19.9%2.0

7. Gavin Sheets (L)23.9%2.0

8. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.3%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Carson Whisenhunt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 20vs ATL3

May 25@ TOR3

Jul 9vs SEA5

Jul 20@ HOU3

Jul 26vs SD6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)25.5%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (L)20.8%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)20.3%3.0

4. Carson Benge (L)22.1%3.0

5. Luis Robert Jr. (R)23.8%2.9

6. Brett Baty (L)24.6%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)22.4%2.0

8. Jorge Polanco (L)23.3%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Janson Junk's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs MIA5

Jul 4@ CHC6

Jul 10vs ATL2

Jul 20@ LAA4

Jul 26vs CIN9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)14.2%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.6%3.0

4. George Springer (R)17.9%2.7

5. Alejandro Kirk (R)13.9%2.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)20.6%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)13.2%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)20.6%2.0

9. Davis Schneider (R)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Leahy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29@ HOU7

Jul 4@ NYY5

Jul 10vs LAA3

Jul 19@ CHC4

Jul 24vs ATH1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Cole Young (L)16.7%3.0

2. Randy Arozarena (R)22.7%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.1%3.0

4. Dominic Canzone (L)21.1%3.0

5. Cal Raleigh (L)25.0%3.0

6. Josh Naylor (L)15.0%2.8

7. Rob Refsnyder (R)25.0%2.0

8. Weston Wilson (R)23.3%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zebby Matthews's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 27@ CWS7

Jul 4vs PHI7

Jul 9@ NYM5

Jul 20vs SF5

Jul 25@ DET3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.9%3.0

2. Cole Carrigg (L)20.1%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.3%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.5%3.0

5. Willi Castro (L)25.3%3.0

6. Tyler Freeman (R)15.9%2.1

7. Mickey Moniak (L)22.8%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.0%2.0

9. Brett Sullivan (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael Wacha's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.1 BF

Expected batters faced20.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 29@ SEA3

Jul 5vs BOS6

Jul 11@ MIN1

Jul 19vs DET5

Jul 25@ SF4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)22.9%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.7%3.0

3. Jake Bauers (L)27.9%2.1

4. Christian Yelich (L)24.5%2.0

5. Gary Sánchez (R)21.2%2.0

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)27.5%2.0

7. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)22.8%2.0

9. Cooper Pratt (R)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Johnson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 30vs TEX2

Jul 5vs CWS1

Jul 11@ MIA3

Jul 20vs MIN5

Jul 25@ TB5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Corbin Carroll (L)23.2%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.1%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.4%3.0

4. Ketel Marte (L)18.4%3.0

5. Max Kepler (L)19.6%3.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)21.2%2.6

7. Tim Tawa (R)21.5%2.0

8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)13.1%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 25@ SF6

Jun 30vs LAD2

Jul 8@ DET4

Jul 20@ AZ2

Jul 26@ MIN0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gleyber Torres (R)21.8%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)21.1%3.0

3. Hao-Yu Lee (R)21.5%3.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)23.8%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)26.7%2.1

6. Eduardo Valencia (R)22.0%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)25.1%2.0

8. Matt Vierling (R)18.9%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jeffrey Springs's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.5% K / BF

vs LHB17.2%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ ATH2

Jun 20vs PIT5

Jun 26@ MIN2

Jul 18vs CIN3

Jul 24@ MIL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)25.7%3.0

2. John Rave (L)26.9%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)23.6%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)21.4%3.0

5. Michael Massey (L)18.7%2.7

6. Nick Loftin (R)18.3%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)24.0%2.0

8. Josh Rojas (L)19.6%2.0

9. Tyler Tolbert (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17vs CHC2

Jun 3@ MIN2

Jun 30@ BAL3

Jul 20@ TEX6

Jul 26vs HOU2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.6%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.7%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)19.4%2.7

4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.8%2.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.7%2.0

6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)25.2%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)19.1%2.0

8. Taylor Walls (L)26.0%2.0

9. Hunter Feduccia (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Erick Fedde's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB15.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26vs AZ3

Jul 3@ HOU3

Jul 10vs SEA1

Jul 20@ TOR0

Jul 25vs CLE5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)21.9%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.7%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.1%3.0

4. Randal Grichuk (R)20.0%2.4

5. Colson Montgomery (L)29.6%2.0

6. Everson Pereira (R)26.4%2.0

7. Braden Montgomery (L)18.8%2.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)21.7%2.0

9. Edgar Quero (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nick Martinez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.9% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.8 BF

Expected batters faced13.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jahmai Jones (R)26.1%2.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.0%2.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)24.2%2.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)26.9%2.0

5. Caleb Durbin (R)17.0%1.8

6. Romy Gonzalez (R)24.1%1.0

7. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.3%1.0

8. Nick Sogard (L)21.3%1.0

9. Connor Wong (R)26.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Edgardo Henriquez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.1% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ STL3

Jul 12@ LAD0

Jul 20vs ATH4

Jul 25@ WSH3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)16.0%3.0

2. José Ramírez (R)15.0%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)19.1%3.0

4. Travis Bazzana (L)22.6%2.6

5. Brayan Rocchio (R)18.1%2.0

6. Kyle Manzardo (L)24.7%2.0

7. Gabriel Arias (R)34.0%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (R)26.7%2.0

9. Petey Halpin (L)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mitch Bratt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.7%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.5 BF

Expected batters faced13.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

May 6@ SF0

May 12@ MIL1

Jun 17@ STL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)8.9%2.0

2. Bryce Eldridge (L)27.7%2.0

3. Heliot Ramos (R)25.2%2.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)24.9%2.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.7%1.5

6. Willy Adames (R)27.5%1.0

7. Daniel Susac (R)23.6%1.0

8. Grant McCray (L)25.5%1.0

9. Christian Koss (R)22.2%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bradgley Rodriguez's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026

Paul Skenes (PIT) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, July 31, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.3 K, with Dylan Cease (TOR) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Paul Skenes

Paul Skenes (PIT) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.3 K against CIN. He's missing bats at a 30% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CIN has been whiff-prone, going down 25% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Dylan Cease (TOR) (78) — about 6.4 K vs STL: a 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Hunter Greene (CIN) (67) — about 6.4 K vs PIT: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) (58) — about 5.7 K vs HOU: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Ranger Suarez (BOS) (52) — about 5.7 K vs LAD: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Bryce Miller (SEA) (49) — about 5.3 K vs MIN: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

CIN is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Paul Skenes is the arm to exploit it (100).
NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Shota Imanaga is the arm to exploit it (47).
PIT is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Hunter Greene is the arm to exploit it (67).
MIL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Ryan Johnson is the arm to exploit it (20).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, July 31, 2026)?: Paul Skenes (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.3 K against CIN. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, July 31, 2026: Paul Skenes (~7.3 K), Dylan Cease (~6.4 K), Hunter Greene (~6.4 K), Nathan Eovaldi (~5.7 K), Ranger Suarez (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +11% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays