Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, May 27, 2026
Top total bases spot: Spencer Horwitz
Spencer Horwitz (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jameson Taillon. The lefty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Jameson Taillon has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against Jameson Taillon. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Chad Stevens (COL) (100) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (100) vs RHP Eury Pérez: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (100) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) (100) vs LHP Steven Matz: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (100) vs RHP Trey Gibson: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Jameson Taillon has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
- RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
- RHP Shohei Ohtani has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chad Stevens (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Spencer Horwitz finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.