Who has the best total bases matchup today (Wednesday, May 27, 2026)?

Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Jameson Taillon. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Wednesday, May 27, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Wednesday, May 27, 2026: Spencer Horwitz (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Chad Stevens (100), Nathan Lukes (100). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Wednesday, May 27, 2026?

Yes — Spencer Horwitz got 1 total base.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Jameson Taillon has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT). RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC). RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). RHP Shohei Ohtani has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chad Stevens (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, May 27, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/4 (75%) on our total-bases over/under, against 48% on the season.

Top 5

3/475%

season 48%

Top 10

5/863%

season 51%

Full slate

111/23048%

season 50%

Top call Pete Crow-Armstrong came through. Spencer Horwitz didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–2

MIAaway

TORhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–3

WSHaway

CLEhomeTop matchup78 Final · 1–2

STLaway

MILhomeTop matchup87 Final · 9–1

SEAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup91 Final · 3–2

AZaway

SFhomeTop matchup91 Final · 3–0

PHIaway

SDhomeTop matchup91 Final · 2–11

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–4

LAAaway

DEThomeTop matchup87 Final · 10–4

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–8

ATLaway

BOShomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–4

CINaway

NYMhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–15

MINaway

CWShomeTop matchup87 Final · 7–0

NYYaway

KChomeTop matchup87 Final · 4–3

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup87 Final · 1–4

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

144 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsHOU· 3-for-4
9TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T1
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 3-for-4
9TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
3
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsLAA· 3-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
4
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsATL· 4-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #9
T4
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsTB· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #224
6
Andy PagesCF
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T6
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T6
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T6
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsCIN· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #57
T6
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #65
T6
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsTB· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #76
T6
Ian HappLF
CHC@PIT· 2-for-6
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #108
T6
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@KC· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #216
14
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #3
T14
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@TOR· 3-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T14
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsAZ· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #14
T14
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #20
T14
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #22
T14
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@SD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T14
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsCHC· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T14
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsWSH· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #59
T14
Ben RiceDH
NYY@KC· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T14
Otto LopezSS
MIA@TOR· 4-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T14
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsMIA· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #127
T14
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #144
T14
Konnor GriffinSS
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #149
T14
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@PIT· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #170
T14
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@ATH· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #249
29
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@ATH· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #13
T29
Blake DunnCF
CIN@NYM· 3-for-6
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #18
T29
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsATL· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #24
T29
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsNYY· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T29
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsAZ· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T29
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@PIT· 2-for-6
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #78
T29
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsLAA· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T29
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsMIN· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #121
T29
Taylor TrammellCF
HOU@TEX· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #126
T29
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #134
T29
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@CLE· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #138
T29
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsPHI· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #194
T29
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsSEA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #200
T29
Bryan TorresLF
STL@MIL· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #210
T29
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@PIT· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #230
T29
Hunter FeducciaC
TB@BAL· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #236
T29
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsMIN· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #243
46
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@PIT· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #2
T46
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsMIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #5
T46
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsCIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #11
T46
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SF· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #15
T46
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsPHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #16
T46
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@SD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #17
T46
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@PIT· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #23
T46
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@MIL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T46
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@KC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T46
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsMIA· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T46
James WoodRF
WSH@CLE· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T46
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsLAA· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T46
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T46
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@ATH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #98
T46
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsWSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T46
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@MIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T46
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsWSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T46
Ramón LaureanoLF
SDvsPHI· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #164
T46
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T46
Will SmithC
LADvsCOL· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #171
T46
Jorge MateoSS
ATL@BOS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T46
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsSTL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T46
Edgar QueroC
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #182
T46
Cole Young2B
SEA@ATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #191
T46
Carson KellyC
CHC@PIT· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #203
T46
Marcelo Mayer2B
BOSvsATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #204
T46
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #213
T46
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #214
T46
Darell HernaizSS
ATHvsSEA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #235
T46
Chadwick TrompC
ATL@BOS· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #238
T46
Michael Massey2B
KCvsNYY· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #245
T46
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #269
78
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #1
T78
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T78
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #12
T78
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@BOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #25
T78
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T78
Christian YelichDH
MILvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T78
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@TEX· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T78
Michael Busch1B
CHC@PIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T78
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T78
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T78
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@BAL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T78
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsATL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T78
Iván HerreraDH
STL@MIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T78
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SF· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #73
T78
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #81
T78
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsATL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #82
T78
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@BOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #83
T78
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T78
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T78
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T78
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
T78
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTB· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T78
Nick FortesC
TB@BAL· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T78
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T78
Richie Palacios2B
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #112
T78
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #113
T78
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #116
T78
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T78
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
T78
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #123
T78
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T78
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
T78
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #137
T78
Nolan Gorman3B
STL@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #140
T78
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@KC· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #146
T78
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@PIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #150
T78
Hyeseong KimSS
LADvsCOL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #151
T78
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #153
T78
Victor RoblesRF
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #154
T78
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #155
T78
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@SF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #163
T78
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@SD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T78
Marcell OzunaDH
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T78
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #173
T78
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T78
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
T78
Jared Young1B
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #177
T78
Masyn WinnSS
STL@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T78
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@NYM· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #196
T78
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #197
T78
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #199
T78
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #206
T78
Alex CallLF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #207
T78
Luis RengifoLF
MILvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #209
T78
Nick CastellanosRF
SDvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #222
T78
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@SD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #223
T78
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #227
T78
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOSvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #237
T78
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@DET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #242
T78
José CaballeroSS
NYY@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #246
T78
Danny JansenC
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #247
T78
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #248
T78
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #255
T78
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #257
T78
Drew MillasC
WSH@CLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #258
T78
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #263
T78
Christian VázquezC
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #268

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Spencer Horwitz (PIT) is the top total bases matchup on the Wednesday, May 27, 2026 board at 100, with Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) and Shohei Ohtani (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jameson Taillon. The lefty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Jameson Taillon has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against Jameson Taillon. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Chad Stevens (COL) (100) vs RHP Shohei Ohtani: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Nathan Lukes (TOR) (100) vs RHP Eury Pérez: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Xavier Edwards (MIA) (100) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Jackson Holliday (BAL) (100) vs LHP Steven Matz: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Chandler Simpson (TB) (100) vs RHP Trey Gibson: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Jameson Taillon has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
RHP Shohei Ohtani has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chad Stevens (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Spencer Horwitz finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Wednesday, May 27, 2026)?: Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Jameson Taillon. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Wednesday, May 27, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Wednesday, May 27, 2026: Spencer Horwitz (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Chad Stevens (100), Nathan Lukes (100). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Wednesday, May 27, 2026?: Yes — Spencer Horwitz got 1 total base.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Jameson Taillon has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT). RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC). RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). RHP Shohei Ohtani has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chad Stevens (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.