Who has the best total bases matchup today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?

Randy Arozarena (SEA) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Boyd. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Friday, August 21, 2026: Randy Arozarena (100), Chase Meidroth (100), Pete Alonso (100), Ildemaro Vargas (100), Zach Neto (100). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Friday, August 21, 2026?

Yes — Randy Arozarena got 1 total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .381 against lefties this year. Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .446 against lefties this year. Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .515 against lefties this year. Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .405 against lefties this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .476 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Ryan Gusto has been getting squared up by righties — .452 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andrés Chaparro (WSH), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Abimelec Ortiz (WSH). LHP Matthew Boyd has been getting squared up by lefties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Brendan Donovan (SEA). LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Corbin Carroll (AZ). LHP Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to lefties — .406 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase Meidroth (CWS), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Randal Grichuk (CWS).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Friday, August 21, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, August 21, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, August 21, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on our total-bases over/under, against 45% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 45%

Top 10

3/1030%

season 45%

Full slate

129/26149%

season 50%

Top call Pete Alonso came through. Randy Arozarena didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–2

ATLaway

MILhomeTop matchup75 Final · 6–7

STLaway

PHIhomeTop matchup80 Final · 1–3

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup61 Final · 4–6

SFaway

BOShomeTop matchup74 Final · 2–3

WSHaway

MIAhomeTop matchup90 Final · 3–5

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–6

NYMaway

CWShomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

DETaway

KChomeTop matchup92 Final · 0–4

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup86 Final · 1–2

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup100 Final · 9–1

CLEaway

COLhomeTop matchup97 Final · 2–6

MINaway

SDhomeTop matchup97 Final · 0–9

CINaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–5

PITaway

LADhomeTop matchup91 Final · 5–6

CHCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 335 shownScore

161 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@SEA· 3-for-5
9TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #20
2
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsNYM· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #21
T2
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@PHI· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T2
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsDET· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #59
T2
Ian HappLF
CHC@SEA· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T2
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@NYY· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #107
T2
Jordan LawlarLF
AZvsCIN· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #145
T2
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@COL· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T2
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsDET· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
10
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #3
T10
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsNYM· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T10
Drew GilbertCF
SF@BOS· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T10
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsSF· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T10
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsSTL· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #168
T10
Keibert RuizC
WSH@MIA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #212
T10
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsLAA· 4-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #223
17
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsMIN· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T17
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@SEA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T17
Carter JensenC
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T17
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsATH· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T17
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsCIN· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T17
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T17
Michael Busch1B
CHC@SEA· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #65
T17
Max Muncy3B
LADvsPIT· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #67
T17
Rafael Devers1B
SF@BOS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #71
T17
Ty France1B
SDvsMIN· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T17
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #98
T17
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsSTL· 3-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
T17
Joshua BáezLF
STL@PHI· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #112
T17
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@COL· 4-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #121
T17
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsSF· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T17
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@COL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T17
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
T17
Kenny PiperC
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #154
T17
William ContrerasC
MILvsATL· 4-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T17
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #164
T17
Oneil CruzCF
PIT@LAD· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T17
Jake RogersC
CWSvsNYM· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T17
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #241
T17
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #244
T17
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsSF· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #262
42
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLE@COL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #19
T42
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsCIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #24
T42
Junior Caminero3B
TB@BAL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #68
T42
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@LAD· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #75
T42
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T42
Daylen LileLF
WSH@MIA· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T42
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@SD· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T42
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@MIL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T42
Tim Tawa1B
AZvsCIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T42
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@NYY· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #172
T42
José FermínLF
STL@PHI· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T42
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsSTL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T42
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@LAD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #216
T42
Brett Baty3B
NYM@CWS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #222
T42
Christian Koss3B
SF@BOS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #249
T42
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #267
58
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsCIN· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T58
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T58
Ryan ViladeRF
TB@BAL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T58
Jo AdellRF
CLE@COL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T58
Luis RengifoLF
SDvsMIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T58
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsDET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T58
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T58
Brendan Donovan3B
SEAvsCHC· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #48
T58
Manny Machado3B
SDvsMIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #51
T58
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #58
T58
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsCLE· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #60
T58
Angel Genao2B
CLE@COL· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #62
T58
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@KC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #64
T58
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T58
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T58
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsSF· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #101
T58
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsATH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #119
T58
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #128
T58
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@LAD· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #135
T58
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #139
T58
Michael Massey2B
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #143
T58
Jordan BeckLF
COLvsCLE· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T58
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsCIN· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #188
T58
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@CWS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #193
T58
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsPIT· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #196
T58
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@MIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #201
T58
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #207
T58
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #208
T58
Carson KellyC
CHC@SEA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #226
T58
Turner HillCF
SF@BOS· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #231
T58
Hunter FeducciaC
LADvsPIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #233
T58
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #243
T58
Jake MangumCF
PIT@LAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #250
T58
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@MIL· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #254
T58
Javier BáezSS
DET@KC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #260
T58
Luis LaraRF
MILvsATL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #270
T58
Colt Keith3B
DET@KC· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
T58
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@KC· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T58
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsWSH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
97
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #1
T97
Zach NetoSS
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #5
T97
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@COL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T97
Steven KwanLF
CLE@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T97
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsPIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T97
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@SEA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #14
T97
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T97
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #18
T97
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T97
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T97
Dane MyersCF
CIN@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T97
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T97
Brice Turang2B
MILvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T97
Jose SiriCF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #50
T97
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #57
T97
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@HOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #61
T97
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsCIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #63
T97
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #72
T97
Jared Young1B
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #74
T97
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@NYY· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T97
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T97
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T97
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #91
T97
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T97
Matt Olson1B
ATL@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T97
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T97
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
T97
Brady House3B
WSH@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T97
Iván HerreraDH
STL@PHI· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T97
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@PHI· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #113
T97
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@KC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #120
T97
Willi Castro2B
COLvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #126
T97
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #127
T97
Austin HaysLF
SDvsMIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T97
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@SEA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #133
T97
Jose FernandezDH
AZvsCIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T97
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T97
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #148
T97
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsDET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #157
T97
Heliot RamosLF
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #160
T97
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #161
T97
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T97
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@BOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T97
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
T97
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T97
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsPIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #177
T97
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #181
T97
Everson PereiraRF
STL@PHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #190
T97
Donovan Walton2B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #200
T97
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #210
T97
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #220
T97
Dominic SmithDH
ATL@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #225
T97
Cole Young2B
SEAvsCHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #229
T97
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@NYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #230
T97
Adley RutschmanC
BOSvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #232
T97
Pedro PagésC
STL@PHI· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #236
T97
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CIN@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #239
T97
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsDET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #242
T97
Bryan TorresLF
STL@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #258
T97
Cody Freeman3B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #263
T97
Elias DíazC
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #264
T97
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #269
T97
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsWSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T97
Alec Burleson1B
STL@PHI· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T97
Connor Norby2B
COLvsCLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, August 21, 2026

Randy Arozarena (SEA) is the top total bases matchup on the Friday, August 21, 2026 board at 100, with Chase Meidroth (CWS) and Pete Alonso (BAL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Boyd. The righty is racking up bases at .381 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .391 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 38% of his trips. And Matthew Boyd has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .622 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Matthew Boyd, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Chase Meidroth (CWS) (100) vs LHP Sean Manaea: a strong bat at .432 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.488).
Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a strong bat at .479 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400), hot bat.
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (100) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a solid bat at .394 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.586).
Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: a solid bat at .406 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.540).
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (97) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a strong bat at .443 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.481).
Chase DeLauter (CLE) (97) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .394 into an arm tough on the same side (.176).
Steven Kwan (CLE) (96) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a league-average bat at .362 into an arm tough on the same side (.176).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Ryan Gusto has been getting squared up by righties — .452 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andrés Chaparro (WSH), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Abimelec Ortiz (WSH).
LHP Matthew Boyd has been getting squared up by lefties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Brendan Donovan (SEA).
LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Corbin Carroll (AZ).
LHP Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to lefties — .406 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase Meidroth (CWS), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Randal Grichuk (CWS).

Platoon edges to target

Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .381 against lefties this year.
Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .446 against lefties this year.
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .515 against lefties this year.
Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .405 against lefties this year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .476 against lefties this year.

How it played out

7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Randy Arozarena finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?: Randy Arozarena (SEA) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Matthew Boyd. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Friday, August 21, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Friday, August 21, 2026: Randy Arozarena (100), Chase Meidroth (100), Pete Alonso (100), Ildemaro Vargas (100), Zach Neto (100). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Friday, August 21, 2026?: Yes — Randy Arozarena got 1 total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .381 against lefties this year. Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .446 against lefties this year. Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .515 against lefties this year. Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .405 against lefties this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .476 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Ryan Gusto has been getting squared up by righties — .452 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andrés Chaparro (WSH), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Abimelec Ortiz (WSH). LHP Matthew Boyd has been getting squared up by lefties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Brendan Donovan (SEA). LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Corbin Carroll (AZ). LHP Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to lefties — .406 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase Meidroth (CWS), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Randal Grichuk (CWS).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.