Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, August 20, 2026)?

Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Jacob deGrom. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, August 20, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Thursday, August 20, 2026: Abimelec Ortiz (100), Randy Arozarena (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), Alec Burleson (100), Ronald Acuña Jr. (100). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, August 20, 2026?

No — Abimelec Ortiz didn't record a total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .667 against righties this year. Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .386 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .513 against righties this year. LaMonte Wade Jr. (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .289 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .445 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL). LHP Robert Gasser has been getting squared up by lefties — .443 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Taylor Ward (SEA). RHP Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties — .416 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Jake Bauers (MIL).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Thursday, August 20, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, August 20, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, August 20, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on our total-bases over/under, against 45% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 45%

Top 10

3/1030%

season 45%

Full slate

73/16145%

season 50%

Top call Yordan Alvarez came through. Abimelec Ortiz didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–9

STLaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–1

TORaway

TBhomeTop matchup89 Final · 2–5

SFaway

CLEhomeTop matchup86 Final · 2–0

ATLaway

CWShomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–6

ATHaway

KChomeTop matchup81 Final · 4–7

SEAaway

MILhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–1

NYYaway

BALhomeTop matchup96 Final · 0–2

WSHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup100 Final · 18–3

LAAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100

Not starting47 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 209 shownScore

99 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Zach NetoSS
LAA@HOU· 5-for-6
9TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #34
2
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsSEA· 3-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #113
3
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@TB· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T3
Luis García Jr.1B
NYY@BAL· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #52
T3
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #60
T3
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@BAL· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #142
7
Daz CameronRF
TOR@TB· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #18
T7
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsATH· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #40
9
Willy AdamesSS
SF@CLE· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T9
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #66
T9
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #76
T9
Michael Massey2B
KCvsATH· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #106
T9
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@HOU· 3-for-6
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #107
T9
Matt McLain2B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #112
T9
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsNYY· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #119
T9
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@TB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #153
T9
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@HOU· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
18
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsATH· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #43
T18
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsLAA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #48
T18
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsATH· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #70
T18
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@CWS· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #82
T18
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #84
T18
Austin Riley3B
ATL@CWS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #86
T18
Brendan Donovan3B
SEA@MIL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #89
T18
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #98
T18
David Hamilton3B
MILvsSEA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #103
T18
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAA@HOU· 2-for-6
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #150
T18
Adam Frazier2B
LAA@HOU· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #159
29
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #3
T29
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsNYY· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #9
T29
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@KC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T29
George SpringerDH
TOR@TB· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #39
T29
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsTOR· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #42
T29
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsATH· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #45
T29
Gary SánchezC
MILvsSEA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #46
T29
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #55
T29
Heliot RamosLF
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #71
T29
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@KC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #91
T29
Donovan Walton2B
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #127
T29
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@CWS· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #132
T29
Josh LoweLF
LAA@HOU· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #140
T29
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsLAA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #148
T29
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsSF· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #149
T29
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TOR@TB· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T29
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@HOU· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
46
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #4
T46
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T46
Brice Turang2B
MILvsSEA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T46
Charles McAdoo2B
TOR@TB· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T46
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T46
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #16
T46
Rafael Devers1B
SF@CLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #20
T46
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #22
T46
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #24
T46
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@MIL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #25
T46
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsSEA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #26
T46
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T46
Christian YelichDH
MILvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T46
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T46
Ben RiceDH
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T46
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T46
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T46
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T46
JJ BledayLF
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T46
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@HOU· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #54
T46
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #56
T46
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #57
T46
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #58
T46
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsSF· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #61
T46
Henry BolteCF
ATH@KC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #65
T46
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@CLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #67
T46
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWSvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #69
T46
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #72
T46
Osleivis Basabe2B
SF@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T46
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #79
T46
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #81
T46
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@TB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #83
T46
Bryan TorresLF
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #85
T46
Brady House3B
WSH@TEX· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #88
T46
Jhonny PeredaC
SEA@MIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #92
T46
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #94
T46
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@MIL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #97
T46
Sean MurphyC
ATL@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #99
T46
Angel Genao2B
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #104
T46
Brock RoddenSS
SEA@MIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #111
T46
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@TB· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #115
T46
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #118
T46
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #122
T46
Héctor RodríguezRF
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #128
T46
Brian ServenC
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #138
T46
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #139
T46
Austin WellsC
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #141
T46
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #152
T46
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #154
T46
Darell HernaizSS
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #155
T46
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #156
T46
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #160
T46
Tyler HeinemanC
LAA@HOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #161
T46
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsSTL· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, August 20, 2026

Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) is the top total bases matchup on the Thursday, August 20, 2026 board at 100, with Randy Arozarena (SEA) and Yordan Alvarez (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Abimelec Ortiz

Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jacob deGrom. The lefty is racking up bases at .667 TB/PA against righties this year — and .615 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 46% of his trips. And Jacob deGrom has been getting squared up by righties lately — .471 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jacob deGrom. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Randy Arozarena (SEA) (100) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a solid bat at .387 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.629).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .390 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400).
Alec Burleson (STL) (100) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .468 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.615), hot bat.
Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (100) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a solid bat at .370 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.543).
LaMonte Wade Jr. (HOU) (96) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a league-average bat at .353 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.400).
Trent Grisham (NYY) (96) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .460 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.355).
Brice Turang (MIL) (92) vs RHP George Kirby: a league-average bat at .361 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.650), due to bounce back.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .445 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
LHP Robert Gasser has been getting squared up by lefties — .443 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Taylor Ward (SEA).
RHP Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties — .416 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN).
RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Jake Bauers (MIL).

Platoon edges to target

Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .667 against righties this year.
Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .386 against lefties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .513 against righties this year.
LaMonte Wade Jr. (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .289 against righties this year.

How it played out

6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Abimelec Ortiz finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, August 20, 2026)?: Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Jacob deGrom. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, August 20, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Thursday, August 20, 2026: Abimelec Ortiz (100), Randy Arozarena (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), Alec Burleson (100), Ronald Acuña Jr. (100). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, August 20, 2026?: No — Abimelec Ortiz didn't record a total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .667 against righties this year. Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .386 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .513 against righties this year. LaMonte Wade Jr. (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .289 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .445 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL). LHP Robert Gasser has been getting squared up by lefties — .443 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Julio Rodríguez (SEA), and Taylor Ward (SEA). RHP Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties — .416 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). RHP George Kirby has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Jake Bauers (MIL).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.