Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026
Top total bases spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is racking up bases at .504 TB/PA against righties this year — and .943 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 52% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been getting squared up by righties lately — .657 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tanner Gordon too — .600 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (96) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .399 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.657).
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (94) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .451 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.000), hot bat.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (91) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a strong bat at .450 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (85) vs RHP Hunter Greene: a strong bat at .433 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.714), hot bat.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (83) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .487 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Matt Vierling (DET) (78) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a league-average bat at .348 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.789).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (77) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a solid bat at .399 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting squared up by righties — .480 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Rafael Devers (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Heliot Ramos (SF).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Vierling (DET), Spencer Torkelson (DET), and Hao-Yu Lee (DET).
- RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kody Clemens (MIN), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and Brooks Lee (MIN).
- LHP Shota Imanaga has been vulnerable to lefties — .408 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and Spencer Steer (CIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .504 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .410 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .613 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .496 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.