Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026
Top total bases spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is racking up bases at .506 TB/PA against righties this year — and .821 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 51% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been getting squared up by righties lately — .657 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tanner Gordon too — .600 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .406 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.657).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (90) vs RHP Hunter Greene: a strong bat at .453 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.714), hot bat.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (88) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .441 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.000), hot bat.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (86) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .379 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.688).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (84) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .482 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (83) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a strong bat at .441 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.419).
- James Wood (WSH) (78) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: a strong bat at .422 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting squared up by righties — .480 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Rafael Devers (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Heliot Ramos (SF).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Torkelson (DET), Riley Greene (DET), and Colt Keith (DET).
- RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kody Clemens (MIN), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and Josh Bell (MIN).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .506 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .413 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .488 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .594 against lefties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Rafael Devers finished with 6 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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