Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026
Top total bases spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is racking up bases at .506 TB/PA against righties this year — and .821 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 51% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been getting squared up by righties lately — .657 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tanner Gordon too — .600 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .406 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.657).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (90) vs RHP Hunter Greene: a strong bat at .453 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.714), hot bat.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (88) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .441 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.000), hot bat.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (86) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .379 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.688).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (84) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .482 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (83) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a strong bat at .441 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.419).
- James Wood (WSH) (78) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: a strong bat at .422 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting squared up by righties — .480 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Rafael Devers (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Heliot Ramos (SF).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .453 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Spencer Torkelson (DET), Riley Greene (DET), and Colt Keith (DET).
- RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kody Clemens (MIN), Trevor Larnach (MIN), and Josh Bell (MIN).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting squared up by righties — .440 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .506 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .413 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .488 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .594 against lefties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Rafael Devers finished with 6 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.