Who has the best total bases matchup today (Saturday, July 11, 2026)?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Cam Schlittler. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Saturday, July 11, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Saturday, July 11, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), Kyle Stowers (94), Ernie Clement (93), Sal Stewart (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Saturday, July 11, 2026?

Yes — Luis García Jr. got 1 total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .563 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year. Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year. Anthony Seigler (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .400 against righties this year. Randal Grichuk (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .549 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Gage Jump has been getting squared up by lefties — .454 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randal Grichuk (CWS), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Chase Meidroth (CWS). LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .442 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). RHP Tanner Bibee has been getting squared up by righties — .441 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA). RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .441 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ernie Clement (TOR), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and George Springer (TOR).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, July 11, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, July 11, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on our total-bases over/under, against 48% on the season.

Top 5

1/520%

season 48%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 47%

Full slate

121/26745%

season 50%

Top call Yordan Alvarez came through. Luis García Jr. didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–7

MILaway

PIThomeTop matchup83 Final · 3–5

LAAaway

MINhomeTop matchup68 Final · 0–1

ATHaway

CWShomeTop matchup89 Final · 2–3

MILaway

PIThomeTop matchup76 Final · 2–4

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup85 Final · 4–2

NYYaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–0

BOSaway

NYMhomeTop matchup90 Final · 1–6

SEAaway

TBhomeTop matchup74 Final · 4–1

CLEaway

MIAhomeTop matchup94 Final · 4–2

PHIaway

DEThomeTop matchup88 Final · 9–3

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–6

KCaway

BALhomeTop matchup80 Final · 5–3

CHCaway

CINhomeTop matchup91 Final · 1–4

ATLaway

STLhomeTop matchup67 Final · 7–8

TORaway

SDhomeTop matchup93 Final · 9–2

AZaway

LADhomeTop matchup81

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 350 shownScore

166 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsMIL· 3-for-4
9TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
2
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsHOU· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #157
T2
James McCannC
AZ@LAD· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #264
4
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@NYM· 2-for-3
7TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #203
5
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #2
T5
James WoodRF
WSHvsNYY· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #19
T5
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsKC· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T5
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsLAA· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #154
9
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@SD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #14
T9
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DETvsPHI· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #26
T9
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsSEA· 3-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T9
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CINvsCHC· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #113
T9
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsCHC· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #131
T9
Curtis Mead3B
WSHvsNYY· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #133
T9
Carson KellyC
CHC@CIN· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T9
Ty France1B
SDvsTOR· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #160
T9
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@WSH· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #161
T9
Ben Williamson2B
TBvsSEA· 4-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #253
T9
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@LAD· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #254
20
Taylor WardDH
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T20
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@NYM· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #27
T20
JJ BledayLF
CINvsCHC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T20
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsKC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
T20
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #77
T20
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #80
T20
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T20
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #105
T20
Kyle Karros3B
COL@SF· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #107
T20
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T20
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #121
T20
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsATL· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #128
T20
Michael Busch1B
CHC@CIN· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #134
T20
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@CWS· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #135
T20
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@CIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #152
T20
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T20
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@STL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #209
T20
Jonatan ClaseLF
TOR@SD· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #217
T20
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@LAD· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #256
T20
Christian VázquezC
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #280
40
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsPHI· 3-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #8
T40
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsATH· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #46
T40
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsATH· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #91
T40
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsMIL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #116
T40
William ContrerasC
MIL@PIT· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
T40
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #129
T40
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@SD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
T40
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@DET· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T40
Bryan TorresLF
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T40
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsMIL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #158
T40
Mike TroutCF
LAA@MIN· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T40
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@TEX· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #182
T40
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATH@CWS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T40
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@PIT· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #185
T40
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@MIA· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #193
T40
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@MIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #210
T40
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@PIT· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #262
57
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #7
T57
Liam HicksC
MIAvsCLE· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #9
T57
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #11
T57
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #13
T57
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsCHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T57
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@SF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #40
T57
Andy PagesCF
LADvsAZ· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T57
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #54
T57
Brice Turang2B
MIL@PIT· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #57
T57
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@SF· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #59
T57
Josh BellDH
MINvsLAA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #69
T57
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsPHI· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T57
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsSEA· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #73
T57
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@NYM· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T57
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsSEA· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T57
Ben RiceDH
NYY@WSH· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #95
T57
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #98
T57
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@NYM· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T57
Luis LaraRF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T57
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #124
T57
Cole Young2B
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T57
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #126
T57
Joe MackC
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #148
T57
Zach NetoSS
LAA@MIN· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #170
T57
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsTOR· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T57
Christian Walker1B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T57
Kahlil WatsonRF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #181
T57
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@LAD· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #190
T57
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsLAA· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #196
T57
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #205
T57
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #218
T57
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsHOU· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T57
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@DET· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #222
T57
Jesus RodriguezC
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #226
T57
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@MIN· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #228
T57
Yainer DiazC
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #234
T57
TJ FriedlCF
CINvsCHC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #235
T57
Victor RoblesRF
SEA@TB· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #241
T57
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #247
T57
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@DET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #252
T57
Brett SullivanC
COL@SF· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #258
T57
Ian HappLF
CHC@CIN· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #259
T57
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsBOS· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #261
T57
Eli WhiteRF
ATL@STL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #265
T57
Steven KwanLF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #268
T57
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsTOR· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #274
103
Luis García Jr.1B
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 2.1 TB, #1
T103
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #3
T103
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #4
T103
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsCHC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #5
T103
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T103
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T103
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T103
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #24
T103
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@TB· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #28
T103
Christian YelichDH
MIL@PIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #33
T103
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T103
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #37
T103
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T103
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsAZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T103
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #41
T103
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T103
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #47
T103
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T103
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T103
Manny Machado3B
SDvsTOR· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T103
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #67
T103
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #74
T103
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #75
T103
Matt Olson1B
ATL@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T103
Jake MangumCF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #79
T103
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T103
Cal RaleighC
SEA@TB· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T103
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@MIA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T103
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
T103
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T103
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@PIT· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #110
T103
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #112
T103
Ben MalgeriRF
DETvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #118
T103
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsKC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #122
T103
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #139
T103
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #145
T103
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T103
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@STL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #159
T103
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #163
T103
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLE@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #171
T103
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
T103
Max KeplerLF
AZ@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T103
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #187
T103
Michael Massey2B
KC@BAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #191
T103
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #192
T103
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #197
T103
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #198
T103
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T103
Alan RodenRF
MINvsLAA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #215
T103
Petey HalpinCF
CLE@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #230
T103
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #231
T103
Henry DavisC
PITvsMIL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #236
T103
Derek HillCF
PHI@DET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #237
T103
Elias DíazC
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #246
T103
Billy CookCF
PITvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #249
T103
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsLAA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #250
T103
Tristan GraySS
MINvsLAA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #251
T103
Nick FortesC
TBvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #267
T103
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #269
T103
Miguel AmayaC
CHC@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #272
T103
Austin Riley3B
ATL@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #276
T103
Blaze Jordan3B
STLvsATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #277
T103
Sung-Mun Song2B
SDvsTOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #285
T103
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsCHC· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026

Luis García Jr. (WSH) is the top total bases matchup on the Saturday, July 11, 2026 board at 100, with Yordan Alvarez (HOU) and Kyle Stowers (MIA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Luis García Jr.

Luis García Jr. (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cam Schlittler. The lefty is racking up bases at .563 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.125 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 59% of his trips. And Cam Schlittler has been getting squared up by righties lately — .571 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Cam Schlittler too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .473 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
Kyle Stowers (MIA) (94) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: a strong bat at .465 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.769).
Ernie Clement (TOR) (93) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a league-average bat at .355 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.741), hot bat.
Sal Stewart (CIN) (91) vs RHP Javier Assad: a strong bat at .454 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.421).
Anthony Seigler (BOS) (90) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a solid bat at .381 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.533).
Randal Grichuk (CWS) (89) vs LHP Gage Jump: a league-average bat at .366 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.889), due to bounce back.
Matt Vierling (DET) (88) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a league-average bat at .338 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.628).

Arms giving up extra bases today

LHP Gage Jump has been getting squared up by lefties — .454 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randal Grichuk (CWS), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Chase Meidroth (CWS).
LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .442 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
RHP Tanner Bibee has been getting squared up by righties — .441 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .441 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ernie Clement (TOR), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and George Springer (TOR).

Platoon edges to target

Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .563 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year.
Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year.
Anthony Seigler (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .400 against righties this year.
Randal Grichuk (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .549 against lefties this year.

How it played out

9 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Luis García Jr. finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Saturday, July 11, 2026)?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Cam Schlittler. An elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Saturday, July 11, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Saturday, July 11, 2026: Luis García Jr. (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), Kyle Stowers (94), Ernie Clement (93), Sal Stewart (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Saturday, July 11, 2026?: Yes — Luis García Jr. got 1 total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .563 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year. Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .436 against righties this year. Anthony Seigler (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .400 against righties this year. Randal Grichuk (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .549 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Gage Jump has been getting squared up by lefties — .454 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Randal Grichuk (CWS), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Chase Meidroth (CWS). LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .442 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). RHP Tanner Bibee has been getting squared up by righties — .441 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA). RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .441 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ernie Clement (TOR), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and George Springer (TOR).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.