Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026
Top total bases spot: Amed Rosario
Amed Rosario (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The righty is racking up bases at .508 TB/PA against righties this year — and .462 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 39% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been getting squared up by righties lately — .774 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Miles Mikolas too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (97) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .393 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.800).
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (88) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a league-average bat at .360 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.741), hot bat.
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (86) vs LHP Gage Jump: a league-average bat at .338 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.889).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (86) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .441 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) (84) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .440 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.360).
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) (84) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .440 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.471).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (84) vs RHP Javier Assad: a strong bat at .457 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.421).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Miles Mikolas has been getting squared up by righties — .478 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Amed Rosario (NYY), Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), and Ben Rice (NYY).
- LHP Gage Jump has been getting squared up by lefties — .454 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Miguel Vargas (CWS), Braden Montgomery (CWS), and Colson Montgomery (CWS).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .442 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Heliot Ramos (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
- RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .441 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ernie Clement (TOR), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and George Springer (TOR).
Platoon edges to target
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .475 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .520 against righties this year.
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .430 against righties this year.
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .430 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .448 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.