Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?

Rafael Devers (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Thursday, July 9, 2026: Rafael Devers (100), Michael Harris II (100), Matt Olson (93), Elly De La Cruz (91), Luis Arraez (88). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, July 9, 2026?

Yes — Rafael Devers got 3 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .504 against righties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .521 against righties this year. Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .613 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .410 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Mitch Keller has been getting squared up by righties — .460 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL). RHP Janson Junk has been getting squared up by righties — .444 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Cal Raleigh (SEA). RHP Bailey Ober has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brayan Rocchio (CLE), Travis Bazzana (CLE), and Chase DeLauter (CLE). RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on our total-bases over/under, against 48% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 48%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 47%

Full slate

107/23047%

season 51%

Top call Rafael Devers came through. Michael Harris II didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–5

ATLaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–7

KCaway

NYMhomeTop matchup84 Final · 12–4

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup67 Final · 2–3

CHCaway

BALhomeTop matchup81 Final · 5–2

CLEaway

MINhomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–1

BOSaway

CWShomeTop matchup72 Final · 1–4

ATHaway

DEThomeTop matchup78 Final · 4–8

SEAaway

MIAhomeTop matchup79 Final · 1–0

PHIaway

CINhomeTop matchup91 Final · 8–4

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup74 Final · 6–7

LAAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup65 Final · 3–1

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–8

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100

Not starting59 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 293 shownScore

139 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T1
Jake MangumCF
PITvsATL· 4-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
3
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@BAL· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #109
T3
Jim JarvisSS
ATL@PIT· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T3
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsSEA· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #195
6
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T6
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@TEX· 4-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T6
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #130
T6
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #135
10
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@MIA· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T10
Manny Machado3B
SDvsAZ· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #42
T10
Brice Turang2B
MIL@STL· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #76
T10
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsCLE· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T10
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #110
T10
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T10
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsLAA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #138
17
Matt Olson1B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #3
T17
Lane ThomasLF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T17
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T17
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsCHC· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T17
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #31
T17
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsKC· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #36
T17
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsNYY· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T17
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T17
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #72
T17
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T17
Jake RogersC
DETvsATH· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T17
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@CWS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #133
T17
Jared Young1B
NYMvsKC· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #137
T17
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #139
T17
Gabriel Arias3B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #143
T17
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #144
T17
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsCOL· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #152
T17
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T17
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@MIN· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #179
T17
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #181
T17
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@TB· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #184
T17
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #191
T17
Willi Castro2B
COL@SF· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #208
T17
Austin WellsC
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #220
41
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #1
T41
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsCOL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #5
T41
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T41
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@TB· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T41
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@STL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #81
T41
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsMIL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T41
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #206
48
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #6
T48
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@CIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #13
T48
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #18
T48
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@MIN· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T48
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@PIT· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #37
T48
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@BAL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T48
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #65
T48
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsKC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #79
T48
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@TB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #82
T48
Liam HicksC
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #83
T48
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsBOS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T48
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsNYY· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T48
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@CIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T48
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@MIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T48
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T48
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@DET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
T48
Nick Loftin3B
KC@NYM· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T48
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #113
T48
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@TB· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T48
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLE@MIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #145
T48
Drew CavanaughC
SFvsCOL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #154
T48
Tyler CallihanLF
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T48
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@NYM· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #167
T48
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsMIL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #170
T48
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #171
T48
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@TEX· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T48
Sal FrelickRF
MIL@STL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #203
T48
Ben Williamson2B
TBvsNYY· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #205
T48
Ian HappLF
CHC@BAL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #221
T48
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@STL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #222
T48
Braxton FulfordDH
COL@SF· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #227
T48
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #228
T48
Leo Jiménez3B
MIAvsSEA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #231
T48
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
82
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-6
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #2
T82
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #7
T82
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsAZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #10
T82
Taylor WardDH
BALvsCHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T82
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsKC· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #23
T82
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@STL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #27
T82
Heliot RamosLF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #28
T82
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #29
T82
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #38
T82
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@DET· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #39
T82
Jonah HeimC
ATH@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #40
T82
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T82
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T82
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T82
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #64
T82
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #66
T82
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T82
Romy GonzalezDH
BOS@CWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T82
Dominic SmithDH
ATL@PIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #73
T82
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #77
T82
Zach NetoSS
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #80
T82
Starling MarteRF
KC@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T82
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #101
T82
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #112
T82
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@NYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #122
T82
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #126
T82
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #127
T82
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@TEX· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #128
T82
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #132
T82
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T82
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@CIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T82
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@CWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T82
José CaballeroSS
NYY@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #148
T82
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #153
T82
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #160
T82
JJ BledayLF
CINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #163
T82
Michael Busch1B
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #168
T82
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #172
T82
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #173
T82
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T82
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #182
T82
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #187
T82
Max KeplerLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #189
T82
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #193
T82
Connor WongC
BOS@CWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #194
T82
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #198
T82
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T82
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #210
T82
Lars NootbaarLF
STLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #211
T82
Nick FortesC
TBvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T82
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #214
T82
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
T82
Tristan GraySS
MINvsCLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #216
T82
Tommy TroyLF
AZ@SD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #218
T82
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsBOS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #219
T82
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsLAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #230
T82
TJ FriedlCF
CINvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #233
T82
Jo AdellRF
LAA@TEX· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Rafael Devers (SF) is the top total bases matchup on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 board at 100, with Michael Harris II (ATL) and Matt Olson (ATL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Rafael Devers

Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is racking up bases at .504 TB/PA against righties this year — and .943 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 52% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been getting squared up by righties lately — .762 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Ryan Feltner, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Michael Harris II (ATL) (100) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .442 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.727), hot bat.
Matt Olson (ATL) (93) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .454 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.727).
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (91) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: a strong bat at .450 into an arm tough on the same side (.276).
Luis Arraez (SF) (88) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .399 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.762).
Ozzie Albies (ATL) (88) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a solid bat at .396 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.727), hot bat.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (87) vs RHP Brady Singer: a solid bat at .400 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.593).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (87) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .428 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.593), due to bounce back.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Mitch Keller has been getting squared up by righties — .460 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL).
RHP Janson Junk has been getting squared up by righties — .444 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Cal Raleigh (SEA).
RHP Bailey Ober has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brayan Rocchio (CLE), Travis Bazzana (CLE), and Chase DeLauter (CLE).
RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).

Platoon edges to target

Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .504 against righties this year.
Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .521 against righties this year.
Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .613 against lefties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .410 against righties this year.

How it played out

8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Rafael Devers finished with 3 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?: Rafael Devers (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, July 9, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Thursday, July 9, 2026: Rafael Devers (100), Michael Harris II (100), Matt Olson (93), Elly De La Cruz (91), Luis Arraez (88). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, July 9, 2026?: Yes — Rafael Devers got 3 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .504 against righties this year. Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .521 against righties this year. Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .613 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .410 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Mitch Keller has been getting squared up by righties — .460 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL). RHP Janson Junk has been getting squared up by righties — .444 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Cal Raleigh (SEA). RHP Bailey Ober has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brayan Rocchio (CLE), Travis Bazzana (CLE), and Chase DeLauter (CLE). RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.