Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026
Top total bases spot: Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is racking up bases at .519 TB/PA against righties this year — and .579 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 45% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been getting squared up by righties lately — .760 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .267 in 15 career PA against Mitch Keller. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Matt Olson (ATL) (94) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .464 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.760).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (91) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .534 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.762).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (90) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .441 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.593), due to bounce back.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (89) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a solid bat at .402 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.760), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (82) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .412 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.762).
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (82) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .450 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.593).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (77) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .388 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Mitch Keller has been getting squared up by righties — .494 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Harris II (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL).
- RHP Janson Junk has been getting squared up by righties — .444 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dominic Canzone (SEA), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Cal Raleigh (SEA).
- RHP Bailey Ober has been getting squared up by righties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Brayan Rocchio (CLE), and Travis Bazzana (CLE).
- RHP Brady Singer has been getting squared up by righties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Brandon Marsh (PHI), and Kyle Schwarber (PHI).
Platoon edges to target
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .519 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .509 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .512 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .530 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .362 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.