Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets
The quarters and both box scores, and how the model saw it.
Heat110
Hornets115FinalSpectrum CenterScoring by quarter
Final| Scoring | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Heat | 31 | 27 | 17 | 35 | 110 |
 Hornets | 31 | 35 | 30 | 19 | 115 |
Box score
FinalMiami Heat
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam AdebayoC | 39 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 7-17 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Davion MitchellG | 37 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 8-13 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Pelle LarssonG | 36 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Klay ThompsonG | 27 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5-12 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Bobby PortisF | 27 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Giannis AntetokounmpoF | 25 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr.G | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 3-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew WigginsF | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Nikola JovicF | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan ConwellG | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | — | 110 | 37 | 22 | 37-86 | 13-35 | 23-25 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 23 |
Did not play Dru Smith coach's decision · Myron Gardner coach's decision · Nick Richards coach's decision · Simone Fontecchio coach's decision
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | OR | STL | BLK | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis SchroderG | 38 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 8-18 | 3-7 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Naz ReidC | 37 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 9-16 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Brandon MillerF | 36 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 10-29 | 3-10 | 11-12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Grayson AllenG | 34 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 6-12 | 4-10 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Sion JamesG | 26 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Ryan KalkbrennerC | 23 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Moussa DiabateF | 22 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Royce O'NealeF | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tidjane SalaunF | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Christian AndersonG | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | — | 115 | 46 | 22 | 38-88 | 16-43 | 23-25 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 22 |
Did not play Hannes Steinbach coach's decision · Liam McNeeley coach's decision · PJ Hall coach's decision
Team stats
Final| Heat | Hornets | |
|---|---|---|
| 37-86 | FG | 38-88 |
| 43.0% | FG% | 43.2% |
| 13-35 | 3PT | 16-43 |
| 37.1% | 3PT% | 37.2% |
| 23-25 | FT | 23-25 |
| 37 | Rebounds | 46 |
| 8 | Off reb | 10 |
| 22 | Assists | 22 |
| 9 | Steals | 3 |
| 5 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 23 | Fouls | 22 |
103.5 possessions each, estimated off the box the standard way. Both clubs on the back of a back-to-back.
What the model says
Saturday, October 24ProjectedHeat 116.3 · Hornets 119.2
Our lineHornets −2.8
Total235.5
Win probHornets 61% · Heat 39%
These are projections, not picks. We publish our number next to the market's and grade it in the open — on game markets the book has beaten us in every sport we've measured, and we say so rather than dressing a projection up as an edge.