NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Thu, Oct 1, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedThu, Oct 1+5.32u76-62 · 55.1%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Thu, Oct 1 · graded at the close
139 skaters a book priced, across 8 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games8
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
CBJ vs BUFKent JohnsonCWizLine 1.29 · 63.2% underBook 43.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+116Hit+1.16u
CBJ vs BUF1SOG
CBJ vs BUFKent JohnsonCWizLine 1.29 · 63.2% underBook 43.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+116Hit+1.16uCBJ vs BUF1SOG2
MIN @ NSHMaxim ShabanovRWWizLine 1.29 · 63.2% underBook 44.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10u
MIN @ NSH0SOG
MIN @ NSHMaxim ShabanovRWWizLine 1.29 · 63.2% underBook 44.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uMIN @ NSH0SOG3
EDM @ VANIsaac HowardLWWizLine 1.36 · 61.1% underBook 44.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00u
EDM @ VAN3SOG
EDM @ VANIsaac HowardLWWizLine 1.36 · 61.1% underBook 44.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uEDM @ VAN3SOG4
EDM @ VANColton DachCWizLine 1.05 · 71.6% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uEDM @ VAN2SOG
EDM @ VANColton DachCWizLine 1.05 · 71.6% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uEDM @ VAN2SOG5
VAN vs EDMElias PetterssonCWizLine 1.79 · 73.0% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63u
VAN vs EDM2SOG
VAN vs EDMElias PetterssonCWizLine 1.79 · 73.0% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uVAN vs EDM2SOG6
NJD vs PHIBrett PesceDWizLine 1.14 · 68.6% underBook 54.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74u
NJD vs PHI0SOG
NJD vs PHIBrett PesceDWizLine 1.14 · 68.6% underBook 54.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uNJD vs PHI0SOG7
BUF @ CBJRasmus DahlinDWizLine 2.27 · 60.7% underBook 46.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+102Miss−1.00u
BUF @ CBJ4SOG
BUF @ CBJRasmus DahlinDWizLine 2.27 · 60.7% underBook 46.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+102Miss−1.00uBUF @ CBJ4SOG8
SJS vs FLADmitry OrlovDWizLine 1.07 · 71.2% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63u
SJS vs FLA1SOG
SJS vs FLADmitry OrlovDWizLine 1.07 · 71.2% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uSJS vs FLA1SOG9
CHI @ UTABowen ByramDWizLine 1.23 · 65.5% underBook 52.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80u
CHI @ UTA0SOG
CHI @ UTABowen ByramDWizLine 1.23 · 65.5% underBook 52.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uCHI @ UTA0SOG10
EDM @ VANVasily PodkolzinRWWizLine 2.06 · 66.0% underBook 52.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uEDM @ VAN4SOG
EDM @ VANVasily PodkolzinRWWizLine 2.06 · 66.0% underBook 52.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uEDM @ VAN4SOG11
CGY vs SEAMatvei GridinRWWizLine 2.09 · 65.5% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83u
CGY vs SEA0SOG
CGY vs SEAMatvei GridinRWWizLine 2.09 · 65.5% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uCGY vs SEA0SOG12
EDM @ VANLeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.59 · 52.8% underBook 40.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+140Miss−1.00uEDM @ VAN5SOG
EDM @ VANLeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.59 · 52.8% underBook 40.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+140Miss−1.00uEDM @ VAN5SOG13
BUF @ CBJJosh DoanRWWizLine 1.88 · 70.9% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uBUF @ CBJ3SOG
BUF @ CBJJosh DoanRWWizLine 1.88 · 70.9% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uBUF @ CBJ3SOG14
NJD vs PHILuke EvangelistaRWWizLine 1.81 · 72.6% underBook 60.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uNJD vs PHI4SOG
NJD vs PHILuke EvangelistaRWWizLine 1.81 · 72.6% underBook 60.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uNJD vs PHI4SOG15
SJS vs FLALuca CagnoniDWizLine 1.16 · 67.9% underBook 55.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−150Miss−1.00uSJS vs FLA3SOG
SJS vs FLALuca CagnoniDWizLine 1.16 · 67.9% underBook 55.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−150Miss−1.00uSJS vs FLA3SOG16
EDM @ VANMattias EkholmDWizLine 1.57 · 54.0% underBook 42.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+120Hit+1.20uEDM @ VAN0SOG
EDM @ VANMattias EkholmDWizLine 1.57 · 54.0% underBook 42.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+120Hit+1.20uEDM @ VAN0SOG17
CGY vs SEAMorgan FrostCWizLine 1.90 · 70.4% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Hit+0.61uCGY vs SEA2SOG
CGY vs SEAMorgan FrostCWizLine 1.90 · 70.4% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Hit+0.61uCGY vs SEA2SOG18
SEA @ CGYAdam LarssonDWizLine 1.34 · 61.5% underBook 49.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91u
SEA @ CGY1SOG
SEA @ CGYAdam LarssonDWizLine 1.34 · 61.5% underBook 49.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uSEA @ CGY1SOG19
VAN vs EDMZeev BuiumDWizLine 1.09 · 70.2% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−170Miss−1.00uVAN vs EDM3SOG
VAN vs EDMZeev BuiumDWizLine 1.09 · 70.2% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−170Miss−1.00uVAN vs EDM3SOG20
MIN @ NSHMatt BoldyLWWizLine 2.98 · 65.2% underBook 53.7% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uMIN @ NSH5SOG
MIN @ NSHMatt BoldyLWWizLine 2.98 · 65.2% underBook 53.7% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uMIN @ NSH5SOG21
CHI @ UTAAnton FrondellCWizLine 2.11 · 64.9% underBook 53.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uCHI @ UTA3SOG
CHI @ UTAAnton FrondellCWizLine 2.11 · 64.9% underBook 53.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uCHI @ UTA3SOG22
VAN vs EDMJake DeBruskLWWizLine 2.39 · 57.7% underBook 46.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+108Miss−1.00uVAN vs EDM4SOG
VAN vs EDMJake DeBruskLWWizLine 2.39 · 57.7% underBook 46.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+108Miss−1.00uVAN vs EDM4SOG23
CBJ vs BUFConor GarlandRWWizLine 1.55 · 54.6% underBook 43.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+115Hit+1.15uCBJ vs BUF0SOG
CBJ vs BUFConor GarlandRWWizLine 1.55 · 54.6% underBook 43.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+115Hit+1.15uCBJ vs BUF0SOG24
UTA vs CHIAnders LeeLWWizLine 2.46 · 68.8% overBook 58.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63u
UTA vs CHI4SOG
UTA vs CHIAnders LeeLWWizLine 2.46 · 68.8% overBook 58.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uUTA vs CHI4SOG25
EDM @ VANJake WalmanDWizLine 1.51 · 55.9% underBook 45.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uEDM @ VAN1SOG
EDM @ VANJake WalmanDWizLine 1.51 · 55.9% underBook 45.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uEDM @ VAN1SOG26
SJS vs FLAMacklin CelebriniCWizLine 3.09 · 62.8% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uSJS vs FLA7SOG
SJS vs FLAMacklin CelebriniCWizLine 3.09 · 62.8% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uSJS vs FLA7SOG27
SEA @ CGYVince DunnDWizLine 2.00 · 67.7% underBook 57.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−157Hit+0.64uSEA @ CGY2SOG
SEA @ CGYVince DunnDWizLine 2.00 · 67.7% underBook 57.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−157Hit+0.64uSEA @ CGY2SOG28
SEA @ CGYBrandon MontourDWizLine 2.50 · 55.1% underBook 45.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uSEA @ CGY4SOG
SEA @ CGYBrandon MontourDWizLine 2.50 · 55.1% underBook 45.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uSEA @ CGY4SOG29
MIN @ NSHBlake ColemanLWWizLine 2.70 · 49.6% overBook 40.0% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+136Miss−1.00uMIN @ NSH2SOG
MIN @ NSHBlake ColemanLWWizLine 2.70 · 49.6% overBook 40.0% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+136Miss−1.00uMIN @ NSH2SOG30
TBL @ NYRNikita KucherovRWWizLine 2.94 · 66.1% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−150Hit+0.67u
TBL @ NYR1SOG
TBL @ NYRNikita KucherovRWWizLine 2.94 · 66.1% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−150Hit+0.67uTBL @ NYR1SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →