NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Fri, Oct 2, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedFri, Oct 2−2.74u37-33 · 52.9%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Fri, Oct 2 · graded at the close
70 skaters a book priced, across 5 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games5
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
DAL vs STLMiro HeiskanenDWizLine 1.69 · 75.6% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59u
DAL vs STL1SOG
DAL vs STLMiro HeiskanenDWizLine 1.69 · 75.6% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uDAL vs STL1SOG2
VGK vs ANATrevor ConnellyLWWizLine 1.41 · 59.2% underBook 43.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+115Hit+1.15u
VGK vs ANA0SOG
VGK vs ANATrevor ConnellyLWWizLine 1.41 · 59.2% underBook 43.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+115Hit+1.15uVGK vs ANA0SOG3
ANA @ VGKCutter GauthierLWWizLine 2.72 · 70.7% underBook 55.7% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−146Miss−1.00u
ANA @ VGK5SOG
ANA @ VGKCutter GauthierLWWizLine 2.72 · 70.7% underBook 55.7% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−146Miss−1.00uANA @ VGK5SOG4
DAL vs STLTyler SeguinCWizLine 1.37 · 60.5% underBook 47.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uDAL vs STL4SOG
DAL vs STLTyler SeguinCWizLine 1.37 · 60.5% underBook 47.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uDAL vs STL4SOG5
VGK vs ANAShea TheodoreDWizLine 1.62 · 52.5% underBook 40.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+136Miss−1.00uVGK vs ANA4SOG
VGK vs ANAShea TheodoreDWizLine 1.62 · 52.5% underBook 40.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+136Miss−1.00uVGK vs ANA4SOG6
BOS @ WPGDavid PastrnakRWWizLine 3.06 · 63.5% underBook 52.9% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00u
BOS @ WPG4SOG
BOS @ WPGDavid PastrnakRWWizLine 3.06 · 63.5% underBook 52.9% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uBOS @ WPG4SOG7
WSH @ CARAlex OvechkinLWWizLine 2.35 · 58.7% underBook 48.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00u
WSH @ CAR1SOG
WSH @ CARAlex OvechkinLWWizLine 2.35 · 58.7% underBook 48.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uWSH @ CAR1SOG8
ANA @ VGKRyan PoehlingCWizLine 1.28 · 63.6% underBook 53.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uANA @ VGK2SOG
ANA @ VGKRyan PoehlingCWizLine 1.28 · 63.6% underBook 53.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uANA @ VGK2SOG9
WPG vs BOSJosh MorrisseyDWizLine 1.90 · 70.3% underBook 60.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−185Miss−1.00u
WPG vs BOS4SOG
WPG vs BOSJosh MorrisseyDWizLine 1.90 · 70.3% underBook 60.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−185Miss−1.00uWPG vs BOS4SOG10
DAL vs STLThomas HarleyDWizLine 1.58 · 53.9% underBook 44.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+118Hit+1.18uDAL vs STL1SOG
DAL vs STLThomas HarleyDWizLine 1.58 · 53.9% underBook 44.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+118Hit+1.18uDAL vs STL1SOG11
ANA @ VGKBeckett SenneckeRWWizLine 2.02 · 67.2% underBook 57.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uANA @ VGK1SOG
ANA @ VGKBeckett SenneckeRWWizLine 2.02 · 67.2% underBook 57.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uANA @ VGK1SOG12
BOS @ WPGJJ PeterkaRWWizLine 1.83 · 72.0% underBook 62.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−195Miss−1.00uBOS @ WPG5SOG
BOS @ WPGJJ PeterkaRWWizLine 1.83 · 72.0% underBook 62.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−195Miss−1.00uBOS @ WPG5SOG13
BOS @ WPGHampus LindholmDWizLine 1.37 · 60.8% underBook 52.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uBOS @ WPG2SOG
BOS @ WPGHampus LindholmDWizLine 1.37 · 60.8% underBook 52.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uBOS @ WPG2SOG14
DAL vs STLWyatt JohnstonCWizLine 2.44 · 56.6% underBook 48.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uDAL vs STL4SOG
DAL vs STLWyatt JohnstonCWizLine 2.44 · 56.6% underBook 48.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uDAL vs STL4SOG15
VGK vs ANABrett HowdenCWizLine 1.52 · 55.6% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uVGK vs ANA3SOG
VGK vs ANABrett HowdenCWizLine 1.52 · 55.6% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uVGK vs ANA3SOG16
DAL vs STLJustin HryckowianCWizLine 1.37 · 60.5% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uDAL vs STL1SOG
DAL vs STLJustin HryckowianCWizLine 1.37 · 60.5% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uDAL vs STL1SOG17
DET vs NYRLucas RaymondLWWizLine 2.14 · 64.2% underBook 56.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71u
DET vs NYR2SOG
DET vs NYRLucas RaymondLWWizLine 2.14 · 64.2% underBook 56.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uDET vs NYR2SOG18
DET vs NYRAndrew CoppCWizLine 1.74 · 51.1% overBook 44.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uDET vs NYR1SOG
DET vs NYRAndrew CoppCWizLine 1.74 · 51.1% overBook 44.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uDET vs NYR1SOG19
NYR @ DETAdam FoxDWizLine 1.48 · 57.0% underBook 50.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−114Miss−1.00u
NYR @ DET2SOG
NYR @ DETAdam FoxDWizLine 1.48 · 57.0% underBook 50.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−114Miss−1.00uNYR @ DET2SOG20
NYR @ DETAlexis LafrenièreLWWizLine 2.05 · 66.3% underBook 59.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uNYR @ DET1SOG
NYR @ DETAlexis LafrenièreLWWizLine 2.05 · 66.3% underBook 59.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uNYR @ DET1SOG21
DAL vs STLMikko RantanenRWWizLine 2.17 · 63.3% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−146Hit+0.68uDAL vs STL1SOG
DAL vs STLMikko RantanenRWWizLine 2.17 · 63.3% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−146Hit+0.68uDAL vs STL1SOG22
VGK vs ANAMitch MarnerRWWizLine 2.12 · 64.5% underBook 57.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uVGK vs ANA1SOG
VGK vs ANAMitch MarnerRWWizLine 2.12 · 64.5% underBook 57.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uVGK vs ANA1SOG23
NYR @ DETJ.T. MillerCWizLine 1.87 · 45.3% underBook 39.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+144Miss−1.00uNYR @ DET2SOG
NYR @ DETJ.T. MillerCWizLine 1.87 · 45.3% underBook 39.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+144Miss−1.00uNYR @ DET2SOG24
CAR vs WSHAndrei SvechnikovRWWizLine 2.34 · 58.9% underBook 52.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00u
CAR vs WSH6SOG
CAR vs WSHAndrei SvechnikovRWWizLine 2.34 · 58.9% underBook 52.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uCAR vs WSH6SOG25
ANA @ VGKMikael GranlundCWizLine 2.01 · 58.6% overBook 52.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uANA @ VGK0SOG
ANA @ VGKMikael GranlundCWizLine 2.01 · 58.6% overBook 52.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uANA @ VGK0SOG26
NYR @ DETPavel DorofeyevRWWizLine 2.62 · 52.3% underBook 46.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uNYR @ DET2SOG
NYR @ DETPavel DorofeyevRWWizLine 2.62 · 52.3% underBook 46.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uNYR @ DET2SOG27
CAR vs WSHJackson BlakeRWWizLine 2.20 · 62.5% underBook 56.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−154Miss−1.00uCAR vs WSH3SOG
CAR vs WSHJackson BlakeRWWizLine 2.20 · 62.5% underBook 56.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−154Miss−1.00uCAR vs WSH3SOG28
VGK vs ANATomas HertlCWizLine 2.10 · 65.0% underBook 59.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−174Miss−1.00uVGK vs ANA5SOG
VGK vs ANATomas HertlCWizLine 2.10 · 65.0% underBook 59.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−174Miss−1.00uVGK vs ANA5SOG29
STL @ DALDylan HollowayLWWizLine 2.51 · 54.8% underBook 49.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91u
STL @ DAL1SOG
STL @ DALDylan HollowayLWWizLine 2.51 · 54.8% underBook 49.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uSTL @ DAL1SOG30
CAR vs WSHSebastian AhoCWizLine 2.35 · 58.8% underBook 53.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uCAR vs WSH2SOG
CAR vs WSHSebastian AhoCWizLine 2.35 · 58.8% underBook 53.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uCAR vs WSH2SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →