NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Sat, Oct 3, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedSat, Oct 3−17.96u122-119 · 50.6%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Sat, Oct 3 · graded at the close
242 skaters a book priced, across 13 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games13
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
EDM vs SEAVasily PodkolzinRWWizLine 2.08 · 65.6% underBook 45.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10u
EDM vs SEA2SOG
EDM vs SEAVasily PodkolzinRWWizLine 2.08 · 65.6% underBook 45.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uEDM vs SEA2SOG2
CBJ vs UTAKent JohnsonCWizLine 1.21 · 66.1% underBook 46.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+106Miss−1.00u
CBJ vs UTA5SOG
CBJ vs UTAKent JohnsonCWizLine 1.21 · 66.1% underBook 46.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+106Miss−1.00uCBJ vs UTA5SOG3
CBJ vs UTADmitri VoronkovLWWizLine 1.06 · 71.3% underBook 51.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uCBJ vs UTA1SOG
CBJ vs UTADmitri VoronkovLWWizLine 1.06 · 71.3% underBook 51.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uCBJ vs UTA1SOG4
EDM vs SEALeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.67 · 71.7% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−128Miss−1.00uEDM vs SEA5SOG
EDM vs SEALeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.67 · 71.7% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−128Miss−1.00uEDM vs SEA5SOG5
SJS vs LAKMichael KesselringDWizLine 0.98 · 74.2% underBook 55.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69u
SJS vs LAK0SOG
SJS vs LAKMichael KesselringDWizLine 0.98 · 74.2% underBook 55.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uSJS vs LAK0SOG6
SJS vs LAKLuca CagnoniDWizLine 1.34 · 61.7% underBook 44.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uSJS vs LAK3SOG
SJS vs LAKLuca CagnoniDWizLine 1.34 · 61.7% underBook 44.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uSJS vs LAK3SOG7
SJS vs LAKMichael MisaCWizLine 1.37 · 60.5% underBook 43.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+114Hit+1.14uSJS vs LAK0SOG
SJS vs LAKMichael MisaCWizLine 1.37 · 60.5% underBook 43.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+114Hit+1.14uSJS vs LAK0SOG8
MIN vs BOSMaxim ShabanovRWWizLine 1.29 · 63.5% underBook 47.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10u
MIN vs BOS0SOG
MIN vs BOSMaxim ShabanovRWWizLine 1.29 · 63.5% underBook 47.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uMIN vs BOS0SOG9
TBL vs WSHVictor HedmanDWizLine 1.31 · 62.6% underBook 46.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00u
TBL vs WSH1SOG
TBL vs WSHVictor HedmanDWizLine 1.31 · 62.6% underBook 46.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uTBL vs WSH1SOG10
EDM vs SEAJake WalmanDWizLine 1.48 · 57.1% underBook 41.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+125Miss−1.00uEDM vs SEA2SOG
EDM vs SEAJake WalmanDWizLine 1.48 · 57.1% underBook 41.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+125Miss−1.00uEDM vs SEA2SOG11
EDM vs SEAOwen MichaelsRWWizLine 1.20 · 66.3% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uEDM vs SEA3SOG
EDM vs SEAOwen MichaelsRWWizLine 1.20 · 66.3% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uEDM vs SEA3SOG12
COL vs STLCale MakarDWizLine 2.27 · 60.7% underBook 45.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00u
COL vs STL3SOG
COL vs STLCale MakarDWizLine 2.27 · 60.7% underBook 45.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uCOL vs STL3SOG13
EDM vs SEAIsaac HowardLWWizLine 1.39 · 60.0% underBook 45.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uEDM vs SEA1SOG
EDM vs SEAIsaac HowardLWWizLine 1.39 · 60.0% underBook 45.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uEDM vs SEA1SOG14
LAK @ SJSTrevor MooreLWWizLine 2.50 · 69.5% overBook 55.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69u
LAK @ SJS2SOG
LAK @ SJSTrevor MooreLWWizLine 2.50 · 69.5% overBook 55.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uLAK @ SJS2SOG15
COL vs STLNazem KadriCWizLine 2.12 · 64.5% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uCOL vs STL4SOG
COL vs STLNazem KadriCWizLine 2.12 · 64.5% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uCOL vs STL4SOG16
SJS vs LAKDmitry OrlovDWizLine 1.09 · 70.4% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uSJS vs LAK1SOG
SJS vs LAKDmitry OrlovDWizLine 1.09 · 70.4% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uSJS vs LAK1SOG17
CBJ vs UTADenton MateychukDWizLine 1.20 · 66.3% underBook 53.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uCBJ vs UTA1SOG
CBJ vs UTADenton MateychukDWizLine 1.20 · 66.3% underBook 53.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uCBJ vs UTA1SOG18
DAL @ NSHEsa LindellDWizLine 1.09 · 70.2% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63u
DAL @ NSH0SOG
DAL @ NSHEsa LindellDWizLine 1.09 · 70.2% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uDAL @ NSH0SOG19
VAN vs CGYFilip HronekDWizLine 1.88 · 70.9% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59u
VAN vs CGY1SOG
VAN vs CGYFilip HronekDWizLine 1.88 · 70.9% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uVAN vs CGY1SOG20
CBJ vs UTADanton HeinenLWWizLine 1.14 · 67.0% overBook 54.8% at the closeOver 0.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uCBJ vs UTA0SOG
CBJ vs UTADanton HeinenLWWizLine 1.14 · 67.0% overBook 54.8% at the closeOver 0.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uCBJ vs UTA0SOG21
TBL vs WSHJohn CarlsonDWizLine 2.13 · 64.4% underBook 52.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uTBL vs WSH0SOG
TBL vs WSHJohn CarlsonDWizLine 2.13 · 64.4% underBook 52.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uTBL vs WSH0SOG22
TOR vs OTTAuston MatthewsCWizLine 2.95 · 65.7% underBook 53.9% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00u
TOR vs OTT6SOG
TOR vs OTTAuston MatthewsCWizLine 2.95 · 65.7% underBook 53.9% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uTOR vs OTT6SOG23
OTT @ TORShane PintoCWizLine 2.42 · 68.0% overBook 56.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69u
OTT @ TOR4SOG
OTT @ TORShane PintoCWizLine 2.42 · 68.0% overBook 56.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uOTT @ TOR4SOG24
MIN vs BOSMatt BoldyLWWizLine 2.97 · 65.4% underBook 53.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uMIN vs BOS4SOG
MIN vs BOSMatt BoldyLWWizLine 2.97 · 65.4% underBook 53.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uMIN vs BOS4SOG25
STL @ COLColton ParaykoDWizLine 1.27 · 64.2% underBook 52.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−128Miss−1.00u
STL @ COL2SOG
STL @ COLColton ParaykoDWizLine 1.27 · 64.2% underBook 52.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−128Miss−1.00uSTL @ COL2SOG26
OTT @ TORThomas ChabotDWizLine 2.10 · 60.8% overBook 49.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uOTT @ TOR2SOG
OTT @ TORThomas ChabotDWizLine 2.10 · 60.8% overBook 49.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uOTT @ TOR2SOG27
WSH @ TBLCole HutsonDWizLine 1.32 · 62.2% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83u
WSH @ TBL1SOG
WSH @ TBLCole HutsonDWizLine 1.32 · 62.2% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uWSH @ TBL1SOG28
PIT vs MTLSidney CrosbyCWizLine 2.05 · 66.5% underBook 55.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71u
PIT vs MTL2SOG
PIT vs MTLSidney CrosbyCWizLine 2.05 · 66.5% underBook 55.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uPIT vs MTL2SOG29
EDM vs SEAKasperi KapanenRWWizLine 1.82 · 72.3% underBook 61.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uEDM vs SEA1SOG
EDM vs SEAKasperi KapanenRWWizLine 1.82 · 72.3% underBook 61.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uEDM vs SEA1SOG30
COL vs STLGabriel LandeskogLWWizLine 2.05 · 66.4% underBook 55.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uCOL vs STL0SOG
COL vs STLGabriel LandeskogLWWizLine 2.05 · 66.4% underBook 55.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uCOL vs STL0SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →