NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Sun, Oct 4, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedSun, Oct 4+4.58u44-35 · 55.7%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Sun, Oct 4 · graded at the close
80 skaters a book priced, across 5 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games5
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
ANA vs FLATristan LuneauDWizLine 1.15 · 68.2% underBook 52.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80u
ANA vs FLA1SOG
ANA vs FLATristan LuneauDWizLine 1.15 · 68.2% underBook 52.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uANA vs FLA1SOG2
ANA vs FLACutter GauthierLWWizLine 2.93 · 66.3% underBook 54.1% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uANA vs FLA4SOG
ANA vs FLACutter GauthierLWWizLine 2.93 · 66.3% underBook 54.1% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uANA vs FLA4SOG3
NYR vs UTAPavel DorofeyevRWWizLine 2.42 · 57.0% underBook 45.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+114Miss−1.00u
NYR vs UTA3SOG
NYR vs UTAPavel DorofeyevRWWizLine 2.42 · 57.0% underBook 45.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+114Miss−1.00uNYR vs UTA3SOG4
DET vs WPGLucas RaymondLWWizLine 2.09 · 65.5% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71u
DET vs WPG2SOG
DET vs WPGLucas RaymondLWWizLine 2.09 · 65.5% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uDET vs WPG2SOG5
CGY @ SEAMikael BacklundCWizLine 2.33 · 66.1% overBook 55.7% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69u
CGY @ SEA5SOG
CGY @ SEAMikael BacklundCWizLine 2.33 · 66.1% overBook 55.7% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uCGY @ SEA5SOG6
WPG @ DETNino NiederreiterRWWizLine 1.28 · 63.7% underBook 53.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74u
WPG @ DET0SOG
WPG @ DETNino NiederreiterRWWizLine 1.28 · 63.7% underBook 53.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uWPG @ DET0SOG7
NYR vs UTAAdam FoxDWizLine 1.40 · 59.5% underBook 50.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uNYR vs UTA1SOG
NYR vs UTAAdam FoxDWizLine 1.40 · 59.5% underBook 50.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uNYR vs UTA1SOG8
VAN vs VGKFilip HronekDWizLine 1.58 · 53.8% underBook 44.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10u
VAN vs VGK1SOG
VAN vs VGKFilip HronekDWizLine 1.58 · 53.8% underBook 44.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uVAN vs VGK1SOG9
DET vs WPGViktor ArvidssonLWWizLine 2.25 · 61.2% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−122Miss−1.00uDET vs WPG3SOG
DET vs WPGViktor ArvidssonLWWizLine 2.25 · 61.2% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−122Miss−1.00uDET vs WPG3SOG10
WPG @ DETViggo BjörckCWizLine 1.75 · 51.4% overBook 43.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uWPG @ DET1SOG
WPG @ DETViggo BjörckCWizLine 1.75 · 51.4% overBook 43.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uWPG @ DET1SOG11
WPG @ DETCole PerfettiCWizLine 2.04 · 66.8% underBook 58.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−168Hit+0.60uWPG @ DET2SOG
WPG @ DETCole PerfettiCWizLine 2.04 · 66.8% underBook 58.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−168Hit+0.60uWPG @ DET2SOG12
VAN vs VGKMarco RossiCWizLine 1.38 · 60.2% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−113Hit+0.89uVAN vs VGK1SOG
VAN vs VGKMarco RossiCWizLine 1.38 · 60.2% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−113Hit+0.89uVAN vs VGK1SOG13
DET vs WPGMoritz SeiderDWizLine 2.14 · 64.1% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−152Miss−1.00uDET vs WPG3SOG
DET vs WPGMoritz SeiderDWizLine 2.14 · 64.1% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−152Miss−1.00uDET vs WPG3SOG14
CGY @ SEAYegor SharangovichCWizLine 1.76 · 48.4% underBook 40.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+135Hit+1.35uCGY @ SEA1SOG
CGY @ SEAYegor SharangovichCWizLine 1.76 · 48.4% underBook 40.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+135Hit+1.35uCGY @ SEA1SOG15
FLA @ ANALars EllerCWizLine 1.18 · 67.0% underBook 59.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Miss−1.00u
FLA @ ANA2SOG
FLA @ ANALars EllerCWizLine 1.18 · 67.0% underBook 59.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Miss−1.00uFLA @ ANA2SOG16
NYR vs UTAGabe PerreaultRWWizLine 1.42 · 59.1% underBook 51.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uNYR vs UTA1SOG
NYR vs UTAGabe PerreaultRWWizLine 1.42 · 59.1% underBook 51.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uNYR vs UTA1SOG17
VAN vs VGKBrock BoeserRWWizLine 2.03 · 67.0% underBook 60.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−176Hit+0.57uVAN vs VGK0SOG
VAN vs VGKBrock BoeserRWWizLine 2.03 · 67.0% underBook 60.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−176Hit+0.57uVAN vs VGK0SOG18
VGK @ VANShea TheodoreDWizLine 1.75 · 48.6% underBook 41.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+132Miss−1.00u
VGK @ VAN2SOG
VGK @ VANShea TheodoreDWizLine 1.75 · 48.6% underBook 41.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+132Miss−1.00uVGK @ VAN2SOG19
NYR vs UTAMika ZibanejadCWizLine 2.37 · 58.4% underBook 51.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uNYR vs UTA0SOG
NYR vs UTAMika ZibanejadCWizLine 2.37 · 58.4% underBook 51.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uNYR vs UTA0SOG20
ANA vs FLAMikael GranlundCWizLine 2.08 · 60.3% overBook 53.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−132Hit+0.76uANA vs FLA2SOG
ANA vs FLAMikael GranlundCWizLine 2.08 · 60.3% overBook 53.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−132Hit+0.76uANA vs FLA2SOG21
NYR vs UTAJ.T. MillerCWizLine 1.74 · 48.9% underBook 42.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Hit+1.30uNYR vs UTA1SOG
NYR vs UTAJ.T. MillerCWizLine 1.74 · 48.9% underBook 42.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Hit+1.30uNYR vs UTA1SOG22
VAN vs VGKLinus KarlssonCWizLine 1.51 · 56.0% underBook 49.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−115Miss−1.00uVAN vs VGK2SOG
VAN vs VGKLinus KarlssonCWizLine 1.51 · 56.0% underBook 49.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−115Miss−1.00uVAN vs VGK2SOG23
VGK @ VANMark StoneRWWizLine 2.14 · 64.1% underBook 57.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uVGK @ VAN3SOG
VGK @ VANMark StoneRWWizLine 2.14 · 64.1% underBook 57.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uVGK @ VAN3SOG24
FLA @ ANAAnton LundellCWizLine 2.21 · 63.3% overBook 57.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uFLA @ ANA1SOG
FLA @ ANAAnton LundellCWizLine 2.21 · 63.3% overBook 57.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uFLA @ ANA1SOG25
ANA vs FLARyan PoehlingCWizLine 1.38 · 60.4% underBook 54.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uANA vs FLA1SOG
ANA vs FLARyan PoehlingCWizLine 1.38 · 60.4% underBook 54.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uANA vs FLA1SOG26
SEA vs CGYJared McCannLWWizLine 2.19 · 62.8% underBook 56.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71u
SEA vs CGY2SOG
SEA vs CGYJared McCannLWWizLine 2.19 · 62.8% underBook 56.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uSEA vs CGY2SOG27
DET vs WPGEmmitt FinnieCWizLine 1.59 · 53.6% underBook 47.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uDET vs WPG2SOG
DET vs WPGEmmitt FinnieCWizLine 1.59 · 53.6% underBook 47.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uDET vs WPG2SOG28
WPG @ DETKyle ConnorLWWizLine 3.13 · 61.9% underBook 56.2% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−146Miss−1.00uWPG @ DET5SOG
WPG @ DETKyle ConnorLWWizLine 3.13 · 61.9% underBook 56.2% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−146Miss−1.00uWPG @ DET5SOG29
FLA @ ANABrad MarchandLWWizLine 1.96 · 57.2% overBook 51.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uFLA @ ANA3SOG
FLA @ ANABrad MarchandLWWizLine 1.96 · 57.2% overBook 51.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uFLA @ ANA3SOG30
WPG @ DETJosh MorrisseyDWizLine 1.86 · 45.5% underBook 39.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+136Miss−1.00uWPG @ DET7SOG
WPG @ DETJosh MorrisseyDWizLine 1.86 · 45.5% underBook 39.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+136Miss−1.00uWPG @ DET7SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →