NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Mon, Oct 5, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedMon, Oct 5+4.55u34-28 · 54.8%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Mon, Oct 5 · graded at the close
64 skaters a book priced, across 4 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games4
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
PIT vs WPGSidney CrosbyCWizLine 2.03 · 66.8% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00u
PIT vs WPG5SOG
PIT vs WPGSidney CrosbyCWizLine 2.03 · 66.8% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uPIT vs WPG5SOG2
PIT vs WPGErik KarlssonDWizLine 1.98 · 68.1% underBook 50.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−114Hit+0.88uPIT vs WPG1SOG
PIT vs WPGErik KarlssonDWizLine 1.98 · 68.1% underBook 50.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−114Hit+0.88uPIT vs WPG1SOG3
OTT @ BOSCarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.08 · 70.7% underBook 56.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63u
OTT @ BOS1SOG
OTT @ BOSCarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.08 · 70.7% underBook 56.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uOTT @ BOS1SOG4
SJS @ DALDmitry OrlovDWizLine 1.05 · 71.8% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53u
SJS @ DAL0SOG
SJS @ DALDmitry OrlovDWizLine 1.05 · 71.8% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uSJS @ DAL0SOG5
PIT vs WPGRickard RakellRWWizLine 2.43 · 56.9% underBook 45.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uPIT vs WPG2SOG
PIT vs WPGRickard RakellRWWizLine 2.43 · 56.9% underBook 45.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uPIT vs WPG2SOG6
BOS vs OTTDavid PastrnakRWWizLine 2.83 · 68.4% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69u
BOS vs OTT2SOG
BOS vs OTTDavid PastrnakRWWizLine 2.83 · 68.4% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uBOS vs OTT2SOG7
OTT @ BOSDrake BathersonRWWizLine 2.03 · 66.8% underBook 56.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−144Hit+0.69uOTT @ BOS2SOG
OTT @ BOSDrake BathersonRWWizLine 2.03 · 66.8% underBook 56.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−144Hit+0.69uOTT @ BOS2SOG8
WPG @ PITCole PerfettiCWizLine 1.99 · 68.1% underBook 57.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00u
WPG @ PIT4SOG
WPG @ PITCole PerfettiCWizLine 1.99 · 68.1% underBook 57.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uWPG @ PIT4SOG9
SJS @ DALIvar StenbergLWWizLine 1.38 · 60.4% underBook 50.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uSJS @ DAL1SOG
SJS @ DALIvar StenbergLWWizLine 1.38 · 60.4% underBook 50.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uSJS @ DAL1SOG10
WPG @ PITNino NiederreiterRWWizLine 1.23 · 65.3% underBook 55.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155VoidWPG @ PIT—
WPG @ PITNino NiederreiterRWWizLine 1.23 · 65.3% underBook 55.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155VoidWPG @ PIT—11
OTT @ BOSWarren FoegeleLWWizLine 1.39 · 59.8% underBook 50.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−111Hit+0.90uOTT @ BOS0SOG
OTT @ BOSWarren FoegeleLWWizLine 1.39 · 59.8% underBook 50.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−111Hit+0.90uOTT @ BOS0SOG12
TBL vs PHIJohn CarlsonDWizLine 1.93 · 69.5% underBook 60.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Hit+0.61u
TBL vs PHI1SOG
TBL vs PHIJohn CarlsonDWizLine 1.93 · 69.5% underBook 60.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Hit+0.61uTBL vs PHI1SOG13
BOS vs OTTPavel ZachaCWizLine 1.51 · 56.0% underBook 46.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uBOS vs OTT1SOG
BOS vs OTTPavel ZachaCWizLine 1.51 · 56.0% underBook 46.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uBOS vs OTT1SOG14
TBL vs PHIBrayden PointCWizLine 2.06 · 66.1% underBook 57.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uTBL vs PHI3SOG
TBL vs PHIBrayden PointCWizLine 2.06 · 66.1% underBook 57.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uTBL vs PHI3SOG15
PHI @ TBLTrevor ZegrasCWizLine 1.82 · 53.3% overBook 44.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00u
PHI @ TBL0SOG
PHI @ TBLTrevor ZegrasCWizLine 1.82 · 53.3% overBook 44.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uPHI @ TBL0SOG16
BOS vs OTTHampus LindholmDWizLine 1.22 · 65.8% underBook 57.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uBOS vs OTT2SOG
BOS vs OTTHampus LindholmDWizLine 1.22 · 65.8% underBook 57.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uBOS vs OTT2SOG17
TBL vs PHINikita KucherovRWWizLine 2.77 · 48.8% underBook 40.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+150Hit+1.50uTBL vs PHI1SOG
TBL vs PHINikita KucherovRWWizLine 2.77 · 48.8% underBook 40.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+150Hit+1.50uTBL vs PHI1SOG18
OTT @ BOSJordan SpenceDWizLine 1.85 · 54.1% overBook 45.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uOTT @ BOS1SOG
OTT @ BOSJordan SpenceDWizLine 1.85 · 54.1% overBook 45.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uOTT @ BOS1SOG19
BOS vs OTTJJ PeterkaRWWizLine 1.81 · 46.9% underBook 40.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Hit+1.30uBOS vs OTT0SOG
BOS vs OTTJJ PeterkaRWWizLine 1.81 · 46.9% underBook 40.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Hit+1.30uBOS vs OTT0SOG20
PHI @ TBLChristian DvorakCWizLine 1.76 · 51.5% overBook 45.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uPHI @ TBL1SOG
PHI @ TBLChristian DvorakCWizLine 1.76 · 51.5% overBook 45.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uPHI @ TBL1SOG21
SJS @ DALLuca CagnoniDWizLine 1.42 · 59.1% underBook 52.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uSJS @ DAL0SOG
SJS @ DALLuca CagnoniDWizLine 1.42 · 59.1% underBook 52.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uSJS @ DAL0SOG22
DAL vs SJSThomas HarleyDWizLine 1.67 · 51.0% underBook 44.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10u
DAL vs SJS0SOG
DAL vs SJSThomas HarleyDWizLine 1.67 · 51.0% underBook 44.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uDAL vs SJS0SOG23
PHI @ TBLJamie DrysdaleDWizLine 1.20 · 66.5% underBook 60.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54uPHI @ TBL0SOG
PHI @ TBLJamie DrysdaleDWizLine 1.20 · 66.5% underBook 60.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54uPHI @ TBL0SOG24
DAL vs SJSMiro HeiskanenDWizLine 1.84 · 46.2% underBook 40.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uDAL vs SJS2SOG
DAL vs SJSMiro HeiskanenDWizLine 1.84 · 46.2% underBook 40.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uDAL vs SJS2SOG25
OTT @ BOSShane PintoCWizLine 2.34 · 66.4% overBook 60.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−182Hit+0.55uOTT @ BOS2SOG
OTT @ BOSShane PintoCWizLine 2.34 · 66.4% overBook 60.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−182Hit+0.55uOTT @ BOS2SOG26
WPG @ PITKyle ConnorLWWizLine 3.11 · 62.4% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uWPG @ PIT6SOG
WPG @ PITKyle ConnorLWWizLine 3.11 · 62.4% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uWPG @ PIT6SOG27
PIT vs WPGEgor ChinakhovRWWizLine 2.20 · 62.5% underBook 57.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uPIT vs WPG0SOG
PIT vs WPGEgor ChinakhovRWWizLine 2.20 · 62.5% underBook 57.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uPIT vs WPG0SOG28
OTT @ BOSFabian ZetterlundLWWizLine 1.53 · 55.3% underBook 50.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−114Miss−1.00uOTT @ BOS2SOG
OTT @ BOSFabian ZetterlundLWWizLine 1.53 · 55.3% underBook 50.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−114Miss−1.00uOTT @ BOS2SOG29
WPG @ PITViggo BjörckCWizLine 1.57 · 46.0% overBook 41.7% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uWPG @ PIT1SOG
WPG @ PITViggo BjörckCWizLine 1.57 · 46.0% overBook 41.7% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uWPG @ PIT1SOG30
OTT @ BOSClaude GirouxRWWizLine 1.73 · 50.9% overBook 46.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uOTT @ BOS1SOG
OTT @ BOSClaude GirouxRWWizLine 1.73 · 50.9% overBook 46.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uOTT @ BOS1SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →