NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Tue, Oct 6, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedTue, Oct 6+6.61u88-71 · 55.3%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Tue, Oct 6 · graded at the close
159 skaters a book priced, across 9 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games9
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
DET vs OTTViktor ArvidssonLWWizLine 2.15 · 63.9% underBook 44.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00u
DET vs OTT3SOG
DET vs OTTViktor ArvidssonLWWizLine 2.15 · 63.9% underBook 44.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uDET vs OTT3SOG2
OTT @ DETCarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.02 · 73.0% underBook 54.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00u
OTT @ DET2SOG
OTT @ DETCarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.02 · 73.0% underBook 54.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uOTT @ DET2SOG3
DET vs OTTAxel Sandin-PellikkaDWizLine 0.86 · 78.6% underBook 61.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uDET vs OTT1SOG
DET vs OTTAxel Sandin-PellikkaDWizLine 0.86 · 78.6% underBook 61.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uDET vs OTT1SOG4
OTT @ DETWarren FoegeleLWWizLine 1.31 · 62.5% underBook 46.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uOTT @ DET0SOG
OTT @ DETWarren FoegeleLWWizLine 1.31 · 62.5% underBook 46.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uOTT @ DET0SOG5
CHI vs STLRoman KantserovRWWizLine 1.66 · 76.4% underBook 61.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54u
CHI vs STL2SOG
CHI vs STLRoman KantserovRWWizLine 1.66 · 76.4% underBook 61.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54uCHI vs STL2SOG6
LAK vs FLAAdrian KempeRWWizLine 2.64 · 72.4% underBook 57.2% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65u
LAK vs FLA3SOG
LAK vs FLAAdrian KempeRWWizLine 2.64 · 72.4% underBook 57.2% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uLAK vs FLA3SOG7
STL @ CHIMason McTavishCWizLine 1.85 · 71.5% underBook 57.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−152Hit+0.66u
STL @ CHI2SOG
STL @ CHIMason McTavishCWizLine 1.85 · 71.5% underBook 57.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−152Hit+0.66uSTL @ CHI2SOG8
STL @ CHIColton ParaykoDWizLine 1.41 · 59.3% underBook 45.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uSTL @ CHI2SOG
STL @ CHIColton ParaykoDWizLine 1.41 · 59.3% underBook 45.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uSTL @ CHI2SOG9
NSH @ TORMavrik BourqueCWizLine 2.31 · 65.7% overBook 52.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00u
NSH @ TOR1SOG
NSH @ TORMavrik BourqueCWizLine 2.31 · 65.7% overBook 52.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uNSH @ TOR1SOG10
UTA @ NJDDawson MercerCWizLine 1.91 · 55.9% overBook 42.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+120Hit+1.20uUTA @ NJD2SOG
UTA @ NJDDawson MercerCWizLine 1.91 · 55.9% overBook 42.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+120Hit+1.20uUTA @ NJD2SOG11
MIN @ BUFMaxim ShabanovRWWizLine 1.23 · 65.3% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00u
MIN @ BUF2SOG
MIN @ BUFMaxim ShabanovRWWizLine 1.23 · 65.3% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uMIN @ BUF2SOG12
VGK @ SEAShea TheodoreDWizLine 1.73 · 74.7% underBook 62.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−195Miss−1.00u
VGK @ SEA4SOG
VGK @ SEAShea TheodoreDWizLine 1.73 · 74.7% underBook 62.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−195Miss−1.00uVGK @ SEA4SOG13
DET vs OTTDylan LarkinCWizLine 2.51 · 54.7% underBook 42.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uDET vs OTT4SOG
DET vs OTTDylan LarkinCWizLine 2.51 · 54.7% underBook 42.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uDET vs OTT4SOG14
OTT @ DETDrake BathersonRWWizLine 1.88 · 70.7% underBook 58.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uOTT @ DET2SOG
OTT @ DETDrake BathersonRWWizLine 1.88 · 70.7% underBook 58.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uOTT @ DET2SOG15
NSH @ TORAlexander KerfootCWizLine 1.56 · 45.6% overBook 34.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+175Miss−1.00uNSH @ TOR1SOG
NSH @ TORAlexander KerfootCWizLine 1.56 · 45.6% overBook 34.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+175Miss−1.00uNSH @ TOR1SOG16
MTL vs CARMike MathesonDWizLine 1.31 · 62.8% underBook 51.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00u
MTL vs CAR2SOG
MTL vs CARMike MathesonDWizLine 1.31 · 62.8% underBook 51.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uMTL vs CAR2SOG17
BUF vs MINRyan McLeodCWizLine 1.30 · 71.6% overBook 60.4% at the closeOver 0.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54u
BUF vs MIN1SOG
BUF vs MINRyan McLeodCWizLine 1.30 · 71.6% overBook 60.4% at the closeOver 0.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54uBUF vs MIN1SOG18
NYR vs NYIPavel DorofeyevRWWizLine 2.56 · 53.6% underBook 42.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+125Hit+1.25u
NYR vs NYI0SOG
NYR vs NYIPavel DorofeyevRWWizLine 2.56 · 53.6% underBook 42.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+125Hit+1.25uNYR vs NYI0SOG19
CAR @ MTLSean WalkerDWizLine 2.04 · 59.3% overBook 48.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00u
CAR @ MTL1SOG
CAR @ MTLSean WalkerDWizLine 2.04 · 59.3% overBook 48.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uCAR @ MTL1SOG20
MIN @ BUFMatt BoldyLWWizLine 2.86 · 67.7% underBook 57.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−156Miss−1.00uMIN @ BUF7SOG
MIN @ BUFMatt BoldyLWWizLine 2.86 · 67.7% underBook 57.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−156Miss−1.00uMIN @ BUF7SOG21
LAK vs FLATrevor MooreLWWizLine 2.27 · 64.7% overBook 54.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uLAK vs FLA2SOG
LAK vs FLATrevor MooreLWWizLine 2.27 · 64.7% overBook 54.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uLAK vs FLA2SOG22
DET vs OTTLucas RaymondLWWizLine 1.97 · 68.5% underBook 58.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uDET vs OTT6SOG
DET vs OTTLucas RaymondLWWizLine 1.97 · 68.5% underBook 58.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uDET vs OTT6SOG23
CAR @ MTLAndrei SvechnikovRWWizLine 2.46 · 56.2% underBook 46.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uCAR @ MTL3SOG
CAR @ MTLAndrei SvechnikovRWWizLine 2.46 · 56.2% underBook 46.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uCAR @ MTL3SOG24
MIN @ BUFKirill KaprizovLWWizLine 3.00 · 64.8% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uMIN @ BUF3SOG
MIN @ BUFKirill KaprizovLWWizLine 3.00 · 64.8% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uMIN @ BUF3SOG25
CHI vs STLBowen ByramDWizLine 1.28 · 63.5% underBook 53.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCHI vs STL2SOG
CHI vs STLBowen ByramDWizLine 1.28 · 63.5% underBook 53.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCHI vs STL2SOG26
UTA @ NJDMichael CarconeLWWizLine 1.88 · 55.0% overBook 45.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05u
UTA @ NJD3SOG
UTA @ NJDMichael CarconeLWWizLine 1.88 · 55.0% overBook 45.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uUTA @ NJD3SOG27
MTL vs CARAlexandre TexierLWWizLine 1.18 · 67.1% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uMTL vs CAR0SOG
MTL vs CARAlexandre TexierLWWizLine 1.18 · 67.1% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uMTL vs CAR0SOG28
NSH @ TORJonathan MarchessaultCWizLine 2.34 · 66.3% overBook 56.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−146Hit+0.68uNSH @ TOR2SOG
NSH @ TORJonathan MarchessaultCWizLine 2.34 · 66.3% overBook 56.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−146Hit+0.68uNSH @ TOR2SOG29
CAR @ MTLSebastian AhoCWizLine 2.39 · 57.8% underBook 48.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−108Miss−1.00uCAR @ MTL3SOG
CAR @ MTLSebastian AhoCWizLine 2.39 · 57.8% underBook 48.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−108Miss−1.00uCAR @ MTL3SOG30
TOR vs NSHEaston CowanRWWizLine 1.86 · 54.4% overBook 45.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05u
TOR vs NSH3SOG
TOR vs NSHEaston CowanRWWizLine 1.86 · 54.4% overBook 45.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uTOR vs NSH3SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →