NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Wed, Oct 7, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedWed, Oct 7−7.98u24-29 · 45.3%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Wed, Oct 7 · graded at the close
53 skaters a book priced, across 3 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games3
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
EDM @ ANALeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.68 · 71.5% underBook 56.9% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−148Hit+0.68u
EDM @ ANA2SOG
EDM @ ANALeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.68 · 71.5% underBook 56.9% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−148Hit+0.68uEDM @ ANA2SOG2
ANA vs EDMCutter GauthierLWWizLine 2.97 · 65.3% underBook 50.9% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−115Miss−1.00u
ANA vs EDM7SOG
ANA vs EDMCutter GauthierLWWizLine 2.97 · 65.3% underBook 50.9% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−115Miss−1.00uANA vs EDM7SOG3
EDM @ ANAVasily PodkolzinRWWizLine 2.07 · 65.8% underBook 53.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uEDM @ ANA3SOG
EDM @ ANAVasily PodkolzinRWWizLine 2.07 · 65.8% underBook 53.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uEDM @ ANA3SOG4
WSH vs PITCole HutsonDWizLine 1.37 · 60.8% underBook 49.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00u
WSH vs PIT3SOG
WSH vs PITCole HutsonDWizLine 1.37 · 60.8% underBook 49.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uWSH vs PIT3SOG5
PIT @ WSHEvgeni MalkinCWizLine 2.46 · 68.8% overBook 57.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00u
PIT @ WSH1SOG
PIT @ WSHEvgeni MalkinCWizLine 2.46 · 68.8% overBook 57.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uPIT @ WSH1SOG6
ANA vs EDMPavel MintyukovDWizLine 1.08 · 70.8% underBook 60.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−185Miss−1.00uANA vs EDM2SOG
ANA vs EDMPavel MintyukovDWizLine 1.08 · 70.8% underBook 60.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−185Miss−1.00uANA vs EDM2SOG7
WSH vs PITPierre-Luc DuboisCWizLine 1.45 · 57.9% underBook 47.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uWSH vs PIT3SOG
WSH vs PITPierre-Luc DuboisCWizLine 1.45 · 57.9% underBook 47.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uWSH vs PIT3SOG8
WPG vs COLCole PerfettiCWizLine 1.96 · 68.8% underBook 58.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−164Hit+0.61u
WPG vs COL2SOG
WPG vs COLCole PerfettiCWizLine 1.96 · 68.8% underBook 58.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−164Hit+0.61uWPG vs COL2SOG9
WSH vs PITAlex OvechkinLWWizLine 2.42 · 57.0% underBook 46.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uWSH vs PIT2SOG
WSH vs PITAlex OvechkinLWWizLine 2.42 · 57.0% underBook 46.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uWSH vs PIT2SOG10
COL @ WPGArtturi LehkonenLWWizLine 2.19 · 63.0% overBook 53.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00u
COL @ WPG0SOG
COL @ WPGArtturi LehkonenLWWizLine 2.19 · 63.0% overBook 53.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCOL @ WPG0SOG11
WPG vs COLKyle ConnorLWWizLine 3.07 · 63.3% underBook 54.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−140Miss−1.00uWPG vs COL4SOG
WPG vs COLKyle ConnorLWWizLine 3.07 · 63.3% underBook 54.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−140Miss−1.00uWPG vs COL4SOG12
PIT @ WSHErik KarlssonDWizLine 1.97 · 68.3% underBook 59.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uPIT @ WSH4SOG
PIT @ WSHErik KarlssonDWizLine 1.97 · 68.3% underBook 59.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uPIT @ WSH4SOG13
WSH vs PITJakob ChychrunDWizLine 2.32 · 59.6% underBook 51.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uWSH vs PIT1SOG
WSH vs PITJakob ChychrunDWizLine 2.32 · 59.6% underBook 51.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uWSH vs PIT1SOG14
WSH vs PITBoone JennerCWizLine 1.92 · 56.2% overBook 48.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uWSH vs PIT2SOG
WSH vs PITBoone JennerCWizLine 1.92 · 56.2% overBook 48.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uWSH vs PIT2SOG15
COL @ WPGNazem KadriCWizLine 2.21 · 62.2% underBook 54.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCOL @ WPG4SOG
COL @ WPGNazem KadriCWizLine 2.21 · 62.2% underBook 54.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCOL @ WPG4SOG16
WSH vs PITAliaksei ProtasLWWizLine 1.80 · 52.7% overBook 45.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uWSH vs PIT1SOG
WSH vs PITAliaksei ProtasLWWizLine 1.80 · 52.7% overBook 45.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uWSH vs PIT1SOG17
COL @ WPGCale MakarDWizLine 2.28 · 60.5% underBook 53.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCOL @ WPG4SOG
COL @ WPGCale MakarDWizLine 2.28 · 60.5% underBook 53.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCOL @ WPG4SOG18
COL @ WPGSam MalinskiDWizLine 2.05 · 59.4% overBook 52.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCOL @ WPG1SOG
COL @ WPGSam MalinskiDWizLine 2.05 · 59.4% overBook 52.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCOL @ WPG1SOG19
PIT @ WSHBryan RustRWWizLine 2.39 · 67.3% overBook 60.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54uPIT @ WSH3SOG
PIT @ WSHBryan RustRWWizLine 2.39 · 67.3% overBook 60.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54uPIT @ WSH3SOG20
ANA vs EDMBeckett SenneckeRWWizLine 2.23 · 61.7% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uANA vs EDM7SOG
ANA vs EDMBeckett SenneckeRWWizLine 2.23 · 61.7% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uANA vs EDM7SOG21
COL @ WPGBrock NelsonCWizLine 2.24 · 64.1% overBook 57.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uCOL @ WPG0SOG
COL @ WPGBrock NelsonCWizLine 2.24 · 64.1% overBook 57.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uCOL @ WPG0SOG22
WPG vs COLJosh MorrisseyDWizLine 1.81 · 47.0% underBook 40.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Hit+1.30uWPG vs COL1SOG
WPG vs COLJosh MorrisseyDWizLine 1.81 · 47.0% underBook 40.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Hit+1.30uWPG vs COL1SOG23
PIT @ WSHKris LetangDWizLine 1.38 · 60.3% underBook 53.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uPIT @ WSH3SOG
PIT @ WSHKris LetangDWizLine 1.38 · 60.3% underBook 53.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uPIT @ WSH3SOG24
WSH vs PITAnthony BeauvillierRWWizLine 1.86 · 54.5% overBook 48.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uWSH vs PIT1SOG
WSH vs PITAnthony BeauvillierRWWizLine 1.86 · 54.5% overBook 48.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uWSH vs PIT1SOG25
PIT @ WSHSidney CrosbyCWizLine 2.26 · 61.0% underBook 55.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uPIT @ WSH2SOG
PIT @ WSHSidney CrosbyCWizLine 2.26 · 61.0% underBook 55.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uPIT @ WSH2SOG26
WSH vs PITDylan StromeCWizLine 1.64 · 52.1% underBook 47.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uWSH vs PIT1SOG
WSH vs PITDylan StromeCWizLine 1.64 · 52.1% underBook 47.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uWSH vs PIT1SOG27
EDM @ ANAEvan BouchardDWizLine 2.65 · 51.5% underBook 46.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uEDM @ ANA4SOG
EDM @ ANAEvan BouchardDWizLine 2.65 · 51.5% underBook 46.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uEDM @ ANA4SOG28
WPG vs COLGabriel VilardiCWizLine 1.65 · 51.6% underBook 46.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uWPG vs COL2SOG
WPG vs COLGabriel VilardiCWizLine 1.65 · 51.6% underBook 46.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uWPG vs COL2SOG29
ANA vs EDMJackson LaCombeDWizLine 1.77 · 48.1% underBook 43.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+115Hit+1.15uANA vs EDM0SOG
ANA vs EDMJackson LaCombeDWizLine 1.77 · 48.1% underBook 43.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+115Hit+1.15uANA vs EDM0SOG30
WSH vs PITTom WilsonRWWizLine 1.94 · 43.3% underBook 38.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+140Miss−1.00uWSH vs PIT2SOG
WSH vs PITTom WilsonRWWizLine 1.94 · 43.3% underBook 38.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+140Miss−1.00uWSH vs PIT2SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →