NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Thu, Oct 8, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedThu, Oct 8+15.17u105-79 · 57.1%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Thu, Oct 8 · graded at the close
186 skaters a book priced, across 10 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games10
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
STL vs SJSAdam JiricekDWizLine 1.35 · 61.1% underBook 39.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+140Hit+1.40u
STL vs SJS1SOG
STL vs SJSAdam JiricekDWizLine 1.35 · 61.1% underBook 39.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+140Hit+1.40uSTL vs SJS1SOG2
OTT vs PHICarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.05 · 71.9% underBook 51.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00u
OTT vs PHI2SOG
OTT vs PHICarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.05 · 71.9% underBook 51.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uOTT vs PHI2SOG3
SJS @ STLDmitry OrlovDWizLine 1.06 · 71.3% underBook 56.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63u
SJS @ STL0SOG
SJS @ STLDmitry OrlovDWizLine 1.06 · 71.3% underBook 56.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uSJS @ STL0SOG4
PHI @ OTTJamie DrysdaleDWizLine 1.09 · 70.5% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00u
PHI @ OTT3SOG
PHI @ OTTJamie DrysdaleDWizLine 1.09 · 70.5% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uPHI @ OTT3SOG5
SJS @ STLIvar StenbergLWWizLine 1.40 · 59.6% underBook 45.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uSJS @ STL2SOG
SJS @ STLIvar StenbergLWWizLine 1.40 · 59.6% underBook 45.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uSJS @ STL2SOG6
PHI @ OTTCarl GrundstromRWWizLine 1.07 · 71.0% underBook 57.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−165VoidPHI @ OTT—
PHI @ OTTCarl GrundstromRWWizLine 1.07 · 71.0% underBook 57.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−165VoidPHI @ OTT—7
BOS vs UTAMark KastelicCWizLine 1.05 · 71.7% underBook 58.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Hit+0.57u
BOS vs UTA1SOG
BOS vs UTAMark KastelicCWizLine 1.05 · 71.7% underBook 58.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Hit+0.57uBOS vs UTA1SOG8
TBL vs MINCharle-Edouard D'AstousDWizLine 1.11 · 69.5% underBook 57.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00u
TBL vs MIN2SOG
TBL vs MINCharle-Edouard D'AstousDWizLine 1.11 · 69.5% underBook 57.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uTBL vs MIN2SOG9
OTT vs PHIDrake BathersonRWWizLine 1.86 · 71.4% underBook 59.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00uOTT vs PHI3SOG
OTT vs PHIDrake BathersonRWWizLine 1.86 · 71.4% underBook 59.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00uOTT vs PHI3SOG10
BOS vs UTADavid PastrnakRWWizLine 2.87 · 67.4% underBook 55.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−140Miss−1.00uBOS vs UTA4SOG
BOS vs UTADavid PastrnakRWWizLine 2.87 · 67.4% underBook 55.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−140Miss−1.00uBOS vs UTA4SOG11
STL vs SJSColton ParaykoDWizLine 1.39 · 60.0% underBook 48.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uSTL vs SJS0SOG
STL vs SJSColton ParaykoDWizLine 1.39 · 60.0% underBook 48.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uSTL vs SJS0SOG12
UTA @ BOSMichael CarconeLWWizLine 1.99 · 58.0% overBook 46.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95u
UTA @ BOS7SOG
UTA @ BOSMichael CarconeLWWizLine 1.99 · 58.0% overBook 46.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uUTA @ BOS7SOG13
CAR vs VANWilliam CarrierLWWizLine 1.20 · 66.3% underBook 55.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−150Hit+0.67u
CAR vs VAN1SOG
CAR vs VANWilliam CarrierLWWizLine 1.20 · 66.3% underBook 55.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−150Hit+0.67uCAR vs VAN1SOG14
MIN @ TBLMaxim ShabanovRWWizLine 1.18 · 67.1% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00u
MIN @ TBL3SOG
MIN @ TBLMaxim ShabanovRWWizLine 1.18 · 67.1% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uMIN @ TBL3SOG15
STL vs SJSMason McTavishCWizLine 1.94 · 69.3% underBook 59.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00uSTL vs SJS5SOG
STL vs SJSMason McTavishCWizLine 1.94 · 69.3% underBook 59.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00uSTL vs SJS5SOG16
MIN @ TBLKirill KaprizovLWWizLine 2.88 · 67.3% underBook 57.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−154Hit+0.65uMIN @ TBL0SOG
MIN @ TBLKirill KaprizovLWWizLine 2.88 · 67.3% underBook 57.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−154Hit+0.65uMIN @ TBL0SOG17
NYI vs CHIMatias MaccelliLWWizLine 1.43 · 58.6% underBook 48.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00u
NYI vs CHI2SOG
NYI vs CHIMatias MaccelliLWWizLine 1.43 · 58.6% underBook 48.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uNYI vs CHI2SOG18
NSH @ MTLNils HoglanderLWWizLine 1.19 · 66.9% underBook 57.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63u
NSH @ MTL1SOG
NSH @ MTLNils HoglanderLWWizLine 1.19 · 66.9% underBook 57.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Hit+0.63uNSH @ MTL1SOG19
BOS vs UTAHampus LindholmDWizLine 1.28 · 63.6% underBook 53.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uBOS vs UTA1SOG
BOS vs UTAHampus LindholmDWizLine 1.28 · 63.6% underBook 53.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uBOS vs UTA1SOG20
STL vs SJSJimmy SnuggerudRWWizLine 2.51 · 54.7% underBook 45.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+112Hit+1.12uSTL vs SJS1SOG
STL vs SJSJimmy SnuggerudRWWizLine 2.51 · 54.7% underBook 45.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+112Hit+1.12uSTL vs SJS1SOG21
PHI @ OTTSean CouturierCWizLine 1.35 · 61.1% underBook 52.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uPHI @ OTT4SOG
PHI @ OTTSean CouturierCWizLine 1.35 · 61.1% underBook 52.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uPHI @ OTT4SOG22
PHI @ OTTTravis KonecnyRWWizLine 1.69 · 50.4% underBook 41.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+150Miss−1.00uPHI @ OTT2SOG
PHI @ OTTTravis KonecnyRWWizLine 1.69 · 50.4% underBook 41.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+150Miss−1.00uPHI @ OTT2SOG23
OTT vs PHIShane PintoCWizLine 2.06 · 66.1% underBook 57.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−154Hit+0.65uOTT vs PHI2SOG
OTT vs PHIShane PintoCWizLine 2.06 · 66.1% underBook 57.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−154Hit+0.65uOTT vs PHI2SOG24
OTT vs PHIDylan CozensCWizLine 2.31 · 59.9% underBook 51.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uOTT vs PHI1SOG
OTT vs PHIDylan CozensCWizLine 2.31 · 59.9% underBook 51.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uOTT vs PHI1SOG25
BOS vs UTANikita ZadorovDWizLine 1.19 · 66.7% underBook 58.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uBOS vs UTA1SOG
BOS vs UTANikita ZadorovDWizLine 1.19 · 66.7% underBook 58.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uBOS vs UTA1SOG26
MIN @ TBLJoel Eriksson EkCWizLine 2.25 · 61.2% underBook 53.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−128Miss−1.00uMIN @ TBL6SOG
MIN @ TBLJoel Eriksson EkCWizLine 2.25 · 61.2% underBook 53.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−128Miss−1.00uMIN @ TBL6SOG27
BUF vs DALRasmus DahlinDWizLine 2.19 · 62.7% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71u
BUF vs DAL1SOG
BUF vs DALRasmus DahlinDWizLine 2.19 · 62.7% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uBUF vs DAL1SOG28
STL vs SJSDylan HollowayLWWizLine 2.59 · 53.0% underBook 45.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uSTL vs SJS2SOG
STL vs SJSDylan HollowayLWWizLine 2.59 · 53.0% underBook 45.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uSTL vs SJS2SOG29
BUF vs DALTage ThompsonCWizLine 3.02 · 64.3% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−140Miss−1.00uBUF vs DAL6SOG
BUF vs DALTage ThompsonCWizLine 3.02 · 64.3% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−140Miss−1.00uBUF vs DAL6SOG30
UTA @ BOSAnders LeeLWWizLine 2.22 · 63.6% overBook 55.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−148Miss−1.00uUTA @ BOS1SOG
UTA @ BOSAnders LeeLWWizLine 2.22 · 63.6% overBook 55.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−148Miss−1.00uUTA @ BOS1SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →