NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Sat, Oct 10, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedSat, Oct 10−12.72u110-107 · 50.7%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Sat, Oct 10 · graded at the close
220 skaters a book priced, across 14 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games14
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
VGK vs LAKRaphael LavoieCWizLine 0.87 · 78.1% underBook 57.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−165Hit+0.61u
VGK vs LAK1SOG
VGK vs LAKRaphael LavoieCWizLine 0.87 · 78.1% underBook 57.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−165Hit+0.61uVGK vs LAK1SOG2
BOS vs PHIDavid PastrnakRWWizLine 2.90 · 66.8% underBook 46.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00u
BOS vs PHI4SOG
BOS vs PHIDavid PastrnakRWWizLine 2.90 · 66.8% underBook 46.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uBOS vs PHI4SOG3
CBJ @ STLConor GarlandRWWizLine 1.38 · 60.3% underBook 40.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+125Hit+1.25u
CBJ @ STL1SOG
CBJ @ STLConor GarlandRWWizLine 1.38 · 60.3% underBook 40.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+125Hit+1.25uCBJ @ STL1SOG4
PHI @ BOSDavid JiricekDWizLine 0.89 · 77.7% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59u
PHI @ BOS1SOG
PHI @ BOSDavid JiricekDWizLine 0.89 · 77.7% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uPHI @ BOS1SOG5
STL vs CBJAdam JiricekDWizLine 1.25 · 64.8% underBook 47.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00u
STL vs CBJ3SOG
STL vs CBJAdam JiricekDWizLine 1.25 · 64.8% underBook 47.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uSTL vs CBJ3SOG6
OTT vs NSHCarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.19 · 66.8% underBook 49.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91u
OTT vs NSH1SOG
OTT vs NSHCarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.19 · 66.8% underBook 49.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uOTT vs NSH1SOG7
VGK vs LAKBrayden McNabbDWizLine 1.18 · 67.0% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uVGK vs LAK0SOG
VGK vs LAKBrayden McNabbDWizLine 1.18 · 67.0% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uVGK vs LAK0SOG8
PIT vs DALErik KarlssonDWizLine 1.88 · 70.7% underBook 57.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65u
PIT vs DAL2SOG
PIT vs DALErik KarlssonDWizLine 1.88 · 70.7% underBook 57.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uPIT vs DAL2SOG9
DAL @ PITTyler SeguinCWizLine 1.43 · 58.7% underBook 46.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00u
DAL @ PIT2SOG
DAL @ PITTyler SeguinCWizLine 1.43 · 58.7% underBook 46.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uDAL @ PIT2SOG10
TOR @ COLAuston MatthewsCWizLine 3.23 · 59.9% underBook 48.2% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−102Miss−1.00u
TOR @ COL5SOG
TOR @ COLAuston MatthewsCWizLine 3.23 · 59.9% underBook 48.2% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−102Miss−1.00uTOR @ COL5SOG11
BOS vs PHIMark KastelicCWizLine 1.11 · 69.8% underBook 58.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Miss−1.00uBOS vs PHI2SOG
BOS vs PHIMark KastelicCWizLine 1.11 · 69.8% underBook 58.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Miss−1.00uBOS vs PHI2SOG12
COL vs TORArtturi LehkonenLWWizLine 2.38 · 67.1% overBook 55.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−150Miss−1.00u
COL vs TOR1SOG
COL vs TORArtturi LehkonenLWWizLine 2.38 · 67.1% overBook 55.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−150Miss−1.00uCOL vs TOR1SOG13
BUF vs UTARasmus DahlinDWizLine 2.19 · 62.9% underBook 51.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00u
BUF vs UTA4SOG
BUF vs UTARasmus DahlinDWizLine 2.19 · 62.9% underBook 51.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uBUF vs UTA4SOG14
CGY vs ANAMatvei GridinRWWizLine 1.96 · 68.8% underBook 57.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00u
CGY vs ANA3SOG
CGY vs ANAMatvei GridinRWWizLine 1.96 · 68.8% underBook 57.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uCGY vs ANA3SOG15
TBL @ NYIAnthony CirelliCWizLine 1.89 · 55.3% overBook 44.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00u
TBL @ NYI0SOG
TBL @ NYIAnthony CirelliCWizLine 1.89 · 55.3% overBook 44.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uTBL @ NYI0SOG16
CBJ @ STLKent JohnsonCWizLine 1.44 · 58.2% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uCBJ @ STL3SOG
CBJ @ STLKent JohnsonCWizLine 1.44 · 58.2% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uCBJ @ STL3SOG17
MIN @ FLAMatt BoldyLWWizLine 2.88 · 67.4% underBook 56.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−152Miss−1.00u
MIN @ FLA4SOG
MIN @ FLAMatt BoldyLWWizLine 2.88 · 67.4% underBook 56.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−152Miss−1.00uMIN @ FLA4SOG18
CGY vs ANAMartin PospisilCWizLine 1.19 · 66.9% underBook 56.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uCGY vs ANA2SOG
CGY vs ANAMartin PospisilCWizLine 1.19 · 66.9% underBook 56.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−160Miss−1.00uCGY vs ANA2SOG19
LAK @ VGKScott LaughtonCWizLine 1.40 · 59.5% underBook 49.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00u
LAK @ VGK2SOG
LAK @ VGKScott LaughtonCWizLine 1.40 · 59.5% underBook 49.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uLAK @ VGK2SOG20
FLA vs MINMatthew TkachukLWWizLine 2.54 · 54.0% underBook 43.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+125Miss−1.00u
FLA vs MIN4SOG
FLA vs MINMatthew TkachukLWWizLine 2.54 · 54.0% underBook 43.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+125Miss−1.00uFLA vs MIN4SOG21
EDM @ SJSLeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.69 · 50.5% underBook 40.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00u
EDM @ SJS3SOG
EDM @ SJSLeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.69 · 50.5% underBook 40.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uEDM @ SJS3SOG22
ANA @ CGYCutter GauthierLWWizLine 3.48 · 54.9% underBook 44.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10u
ANA @ CGY0SOG
ANA @ CGYCutter GauthierLWWizLine 3.48 · 54.9% underBook 44.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uANA @ CGY0SOG23
PHI @ BOSJamie DrysdaleDWizLine 1.32 · 62.3% underBook 52.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uPHI @ BOS2SOG
PHI @ BOSJamie DrysdaleDWizLine 1.32 · 62.3% underBook 52.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uPHI @ BOS2SOG24
BUF vs UTATage ThompsonCWizLine 3.02 · 64.4% underBook 54.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uBUF vs UTA6SOG
BUF vs UTATage ThompsonCWizLine 3.02 · 64.4% underBook 54.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uBUF vs UTA6SOG25
SJS vs EDMIgor ChernyshovLWWizLine 1.47 · 57.2% underBook 47.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10u
SJS vs EDM1SOG
SJS vs EDMIgor ChernyshovLWWizLine 1.47 · 57.2% underBook 47.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uSJS vs EDM1SOG26
SJS vs EDMWill SmithCWizLine 2.11 · 64.9% underBook 55.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uSJS vs EDM1SOG
SJS vs EDMWill SmithCWizLine 2.11 · 64.9% underBook 55.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uSJS vs EDM1SOG27
DAL @ PITMiro HeiskanenDWizLine 1.67 · 51.1% underBook 41.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Hit+1.30uDAL @ PIT0SOG
DAL @ PITMiro HeiskanenDWizLine 1.67 · 51.1% underBook 41.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Hit+1.30uDAL @ PIT0SOG28
STL vs CBJMason McTavishCWizLine 1.94 · 69.1% underBook 59.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−174Miss−1.00uSTL vs CBJ4SOG
STL vs CBJMason McTavishCWizLine 1.94 · 69.1% underBook 59.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−174Miss−1.00uSTL vs CBJ4SOG29
VGK vs LAKTrevor ConnellyLWWizLine 1.43 · 58.6% underBook 49.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−111Miss−1.00uVGK vs LAK6SOG
VGK vs LAKTrevor ConnellyLWWizLine 1.43 · 58.6% underBook 49.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−111Miss−1.00uVGK vs LAK6SOG30
VAN @ NJDDawson MercerCWizLine 2.08 · 60.3% overBook 50.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uVAN @ NJD3SOG
VAN @ NJDDawson MercerCWizLine 2.08 · 60.3% overBook 50.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uVAN @ NJD3SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →