NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Sun, Oct 11, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedSun, Oct 11−13.51u17-29 · 37.0%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Sun, Oct 11 · graded at the close
47 skaters a book priced, across 3 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games3
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
WSH vs SEABoone JennerCWizLine 2.05 · 59.4% overBook 48.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91u
WSH vs SEA5SOG
WSH vs SEABoone JennerCWizLine 2.05 · 59.4% overBook 48.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uWSH vs SEA5SOG2
CAR @ PHIAndrei SvechnikovRWWizLine 2.40 · 57.6% underBook 47.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00u
CAR @ PHI1SOG
CAR @ PHIAndrei SvechnikovRWWizLine 2.40 · 57.6% underBook 47.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uCAR @ PHI1SOG3
NYR vs VANPavel DorofeyevRWWizLine 2.76 · 49.0% underBook 41.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+130Hit+1.30u
NYR vs VAN2SOG
NYR vs VANPavel DorofeyevRWWizLine 2.76 · 49.0% underBook 41.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+130Hit+1.30uNYR vs VAN2SOG4
WSH vs SEAJakob ChychrunDWizLine 2.52 · 54.5% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uWSH vs SEA8SOG
WSH vs SEAJakob ChychrunDWizLine 2.52 · 54.5% underBook 47.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uWSH vs SEA8SOG5
WSH vs SEAAlex OvechkinLWWizLine 2.49 · 55.3% underBook 48.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uWSH vs SEA3SOG
WSH vs SEAAlex OvechkinLWWizLine 2.49 · 55.3% underBook 48.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uWSH vs SEA3SOG6
WSH vs SEAPierre-Luc DuboisCWizLine 1.58 · 53.7% underBook 47.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100VoidWSH vs SEA—
WSH vs SEAPierre-Luc DuboisCWizLine 1.58 · 53.7% underBook 47.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100VoidWSH vs SEA—7
NYR vs VANAdam FoxDWizLine 1.54 · 55.1% underBook 48.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uNYR vs VAN2SOG
NYR vs VANAdam FoxDWizLine 1.54 · 55.1% underBook 48.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−110Miss−1.00uNYR vs VAN2SOG8
CAR @ PHISebastian AhoCWizLine 2.38 · 57.9% underBook 51.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uCAR @ PHI2SOG
CAR @ PHISebastian AhoCWizLine 2.38 · 57.9% underBook 51.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uCAR @ PHI2SOG9
PHI vs CARPorter MartoneRWWizLine 1.59 · 53.6% underBook 47.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95u
PHI vs CAR0SOG
PHI vs CARPorter MartoneRWWizLine 1.59 · 53.6% underBook 47.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uPHI vs CAR0SOG10
SEA @ WSHJordan EberleRWWizLine 1.92 · 56.0% overBook 50.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87u
SEA @ WSH6SOG
SEA @ WSHJordan EberleRWWizLine 1.92 · 56.0% overBook 50.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uSEA @ WSH6SOG11
CAR @ PHIJackson BlakeRWWizLine 2.21 · 62.3% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI4SOG
CAR @ PHIJackson BlakeRWWizLine 2.21 · 62.3% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI4SOG12
WSH vs SEADylan StromeCWizLine 1.72 · 49.5% underBook 44.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uWSH vs SEA2SOG
WSH vs SEADylan StromeCWizLine 1.72 · 49.5% underBook 44.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uWSH vs SEA2SOG13
WSH vs SEACole HutsonDWizLine 1.60 · 53.0% underBook 47.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uWSH vs SEA5SOG
WSH vs SEACole HutsonDWizLine 1.60 · 53.0% underBook 47.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uWSH vs SEA5SOG14
PHI vs CARMatvei MichkovRWWizLine 1.66 · 51.2% underBook 46.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uPHI vs CAR0SOG
PHI vs CARMatvei MichkovRWWizLine 1.66 · 51.2% underBook 46.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uPHI vs CAR0SOG15
WSH vs SEAAliaksei ProtasLWWizLine 1.95 · 57.0% overBook 52.0% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uWSH vs SEA1SOG
WSH vs SEAAliaksei ProtasLWWizLine 1.95 · 57.0% overBook 52.0% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uWSH vs SEA1SOG16
CAR @ PHISean WalkerDWizLine 1.94 · 56.7% overBook 52.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI1SOG
CAR @ PHISean WalkerDWizLine 1.94 · 56.7% overBook 52.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI1SOG17
VAN @ NYRFilip HronekDWizLine 1.71 · 50.1% overBook 45.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+108Miss−1.00u
VAN @ NYR1SOG
VAN @ NYRFilip HronekDWizLine 1.71 · 50.1% overBook 45.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+108Miss−1.00uVAN @ NYR1SOG18
SEA @ WSHBobby McMannCWizLine 2.50 · 55.2% underBook 50.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−118Miss−1.00uSEA @ WSH4SOG
SEA @ WSHBobby McMannCWizLine 2.50 · 55.2% underBook 50.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−118Miss−1.00uSEA @ WSH4SOG19
VAN @ NYRJake DeBruskLWWizLine 2.68 · 49.3% overBook 45.2% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+108Miss−1.00uVAN @ NYR1SOG
VAN @ NYRJake DeBruskLWWizLine 2.68 · 49.3% overBook 45.2% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+108Miss−1.00uVAN @ NYR1SOG20
NYR vs VANMika ZibanejadCWizLine 2.64 · 51.7% underBook 47.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uNYR vs VAN3SOG
NYR vs VANMika ZibanejadCWizLine 2.64 · 51.7% underBook 47.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uNYR vs VAN3SOG21
CAR @ PHITaylor HallLWWizLine 1.79 · 47.4% underBook 44.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI3SOG
CAR @ PHITaylor HallLWWizLine 1.79 · 47.4% underBook 44.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI3SOG22
VAN @ NYRDrew O'ConnorLWWizLine 1.73 · 50.7% overBook 47.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uVAN @ NYR0SOG
VAN @ NYRDrew O'ConnorLWWizLine 1.73 · 50.7% overBook 47.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uVAN @ NYR0SOG23
NYR vs VANAlexis LafrenièreLWWizLine 2.29 · 65.2% overBook 61.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−195Hit+0.51uNYR vs VAN2SOG
NYR vs VANAlexis LafrenièreLWWizLine 2.29 · 65.2% overBook 61.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−195Hit+0.51uNYR vs VAN2SOG24
CAR @ PHINikolaj EhlersLWWizLine 2.05 · 40.4% underBook 37.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+135Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI3SOG
CAR @ PHINikolaj EhlersLWWizLine 2.05 · 40.4% underBook 37.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+135Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI3SOG25
VAN @ NYRBrock BoeserRWWizLine 2.14 · 61.7% overBook 59.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−150Miss−1.00uVAN @ NYR1SOG
VAN @ NYRBrock BoeserRWWizLine 2.14 · 61.7% overBook 59.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−150Miss−1.00uVAN @ NYR1SOG26
SEA @ WSHMatty BeniersCWizLine 1.67 · 49.1% overBook 46.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uSEA @ WSH1SOG
SEA @ WSHMatty BeniersCWizLine 1.67 · 49.1% overBook 46.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uSEA @ WSH1SOG27
CAR @ PHIK'Andre MillerDWizLine 1.57 · 45.8% overBook 43.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI1SOG
CAR @ PHIK'Andre MillerDWizLine 1.57 · 45.8% overBook 43.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI1SOG28
SEA @ WSHMackie SamoskevichRWWizLine 2.16 · 62.3% overBook 60.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−170Miss−1.00uSEA @ WSH1SOG
SEA @ WSHMackie SamoskevichRWWizLine 2.16 · 62.3% overBook 60.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−170Miss−1.00uSEA @ WSH1SOG29
CAR @ PHILogan StankovenCWizLine 2.23 · 61.8% underBook 59.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI3SOG
CAR @ PHILogan StankovenCWizLine 2.23 · 61.8% underBook 59.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00uCAR @ PHI3SOG30
PHI vs CAROwen TippettRWWizLine 2.13 · 38.6% underBook 36.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+150Miss−1.00uPHI vs CAR3SOG
PHI vs CAROwen TippettRWWizLine 2.13 · 38.6% underBook 36.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+150Miss−1.00uPHI vs CAR3SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →