NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Mon, Oct 12, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedMon, Oct 12−7.32u24-25 · 49.0%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Mon, Oct 12 · graded at the close
49 skaters a book priced, across 3 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games3
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
VGK @ MINTrevor ConnellyLWWizLine 1.74 · 74.4% underBook 59.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−175Hit+0.57u
VGK @ MIN0SOG
VGK @ MINTrevor ConnellyLWWizLine 1.74 · 74.4% underBook 59.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−175Hit+0.57uVGK @ MIN0SOG2
MIN vs VGKKirill KaprizovLWWizLine 2.72 · 70.6% underBook 56.3% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00u
MIN vs VGK4SOG
MIN vs VGKKirill KaprizovLWWizLine 2.72 · 70.6% underBook 56.3% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uMIN vs VGK4SOG3
OTT @ NJDWarren FoegeleLWWizLine 1.22 · 65.8% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77u
OTT @ NJD1SOG
OTT @ NJDWarren FoegeleLWWizLine 1.22 · 65.8% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uOTT @ NJD1SOG4
MIN vs VGKMatt BoldyLWWizLine 2.78 · 69.4% underBook 56.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−148Hit+0.68uMIN vs VGK3SOG
MIN vs VGKMatt BoldyLWWizLine 2.78 · 69.4% underBook 56.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−148Hit+0.68uMIN vs VGK3SOG5
MIN vs VGKRyan HartmanRWWizLine 1.61 · 52.8% underBook 42.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+122Miss−1.00uMIN vs VGK2SOG
MIN vs VGKRyan HartmanRWWizLine 1.61 · 52.8% underBook 42.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+122Miss−1.00uMIN vs VGK2SOG6
MIN vs VGKJoel Eriksson EkCWizLine 2.25 · 61.4% underBook 51.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uMIN vs VGK3SOG
MIN vs VGKJoel Eriksson EkCWizLine 2.25 · 61.4% underBook 51.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uMIN vs VGK3SOG7
FLA @ BUFMatthew TkachukLWWizLine 2.52 · 54.7% underBook 45.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10u
FLA @ BUF2SOG
FLA @ BUFMatthew TkachukLWWizLine 2.52 · 54.7% underBook 45.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uFLA @ BUF2SOG8
FLA @ BUFSeth JonesDWizLine 1.93 · 56.5% overBook 47.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uFLA @ BUF4SOG
FLA @ BUFSeth JonesDWizLine 1.93 · 56.5% overBook 47.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uFLA @ BUF4SOG9
BUF vs FLARasmus DahlinDWizLine 2.30 · 60.1% underBook 51.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−122Miss−1.00u
BUF vs FLA4SOG
BUF vs FLARasmus DahlinDWizLine 2.30 · 60.1% underBook 51.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−122Miss−1.00uBUF vs FLA4SOG10
FLA @ BUFBrady TkachukLWWizLine 2.97 · 65.4% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uFLA @ BUF3SOG
FLA @ BUFBrady TkachukLWWizLine 2.97 · 65.4% underBook 57.5% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uFLA @ BUF3SOG11
NJD vs OTTLuke EvangelistaRWWizLine 1.98 · 68.3% underBook 60.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54u
NJD vs OTT0SOG
NJD vs OTTLuke EvangelistaRWWizLine 1.98 · 68.3% underBook 60.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54uNJD vs OTT0SOG12
FLA @ BUFAnton LundellCWizLine 2.27 · 64.7% overBook 57.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uFLA @ BUF3SOG
FLA @ BUFAnton LundellCWizLine 2.27 · 64.7% overBook 57.3% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uFLA @ BUF3SOG13
NJD vs OTTArseny GritsyukRWWizLine 1.86 · 54.6% overBook 47.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uNJD vs OTT2SOG
NJD vs OTTArseny GritsyukRWWizLine 1.86 · 54.6% overBook 47.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uNJD vs OTT2SOG14
BUF vs FLATage ThompsonCWizLine 3.18 · 61.0% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uBUF vs FLA1SOG
BUF vs FLATage ThompsonCWizLine 3.18 · 61.0% underBook 54.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uBUF vs FLA1SOG15
NJD vs OTTJack HughesCWizLine 3.14 · 61.9% underBook 55.7% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uNJD vs OTT2SOG
NJD vs OTTJack HughesCWizLine 3.14 · 61.9% underBook 55.7% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uNJD vs OTT2SOG16
OTT @ NJDTim StützleCWizLine 2.29 · 65.2% overBook 59.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−168Miss−1.00uOTT @ NJD1SOG
OTT @ NJDTim StützleCWizLine 2.29 · 65.2% overBook 59.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−168Miss−1.00uOTT @ NJD1SOG17
VGK @ MINTomas HertlCWizLine 2.32 · 65.8% overBook 59.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−170Miss−1.00uVGK @ MIN0SOG
VGK @ MINTomas HertlCWizLine 2.32 · 65.8% overBook 59.9% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−170Miss−1.00uVGK @ MIN0SOG18
VGK @ MINJack EichelCWizLine 3.29 · 62.0% overBook 56.6% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uVGK @ MIN2SOG
VGK @ MINJack EichelCWizLine 3.29 · 62.0% overBook 56.6% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uVGK @ MIN2SOG19
BUF vs FLAJosh DoanRWWizLine 1.79 · 47.6% underBook 43.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+118Miss−1.00uBUF vs FLA3SOG
BUF vs FLAJosh DoanRWWizLine 1.79 · 47.6% underBook 43.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+118Miss−1.00uBUF vs FLA3SOG20
MIN vs VGKQuinn HughesDWizLine 2.23 · 61.7% underBook 57.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uMIN vs VGK2SOG
MIN vs VGKQuinn HughesDWizLine 2.23 · 61.7% underBook 57.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uMIN vs VGK2SOG21
VGK @ MINIvan BarbashevLWWizLine 1.73 · 50.6% overBook 46.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uVGK @ MIN1SOG
VGK @ MINIvan BarbashevLWWizLine 1.73 · 50.6% overBook 46.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uVGK @ MIN1SOG22
NJD vs OTTLuke HughesDWizLine 2.01 · 58.5% overBook 54.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uNJD vs OTT4SOG
NJD vs OTTLuke HughesDWizLine 2.01 · 58.5% overBook 54.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uNJD vs OTT4SOG23
VGK @ MINMark StoneRWWizLine 2.25 · 64.2% overBook 60.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−178Hit+0.56uVGK @ MIN2SOG
VGK @ MINMark StoneRWWizLine 2.25 · 64.2% overBook 60.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−178Hit+0.56uVGK @ MIN2SOG24
OTT @ NJDFabian ZetterlundLWWizLine 1.47 · 57.2% underBook 53.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uOTT @ NJD4SOG
OTT @ NJDFabian ZetterlundLWWizLine 1.47 · 57.2% underBook 53.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Miss−1.00uOTT @ NJD4SOG25
BUF vs FLAZach BensonLWWizLine 1.92 · 56.2% overBook 53.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uBUF vs FLA2SOG
BUF vs FLAZach BensonLWWizLine 1.92 · 56.2% overBook 53.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uBUF vs FLA2SOG26
OTT @ NJDThomas ChabotDWizLine 1.96 · 42.9% underBook 39.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+146Miss−1.00uOTT @ NJD2SOG
OTT @ NJDThomas ChabotDWizLine 1.96 · 42.9% underBook 39.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+146Miss−1.00uOTT @ NJD2SOG27
NJD vs OTTNico HischierCWizLine 2.20 · 62.5% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−174Hit+0.57uNJD vs OTT1SOG
NJD vs OTTNico HischierCWizLine 2.20 · 62.5% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−174Hit+0.57uNJD vs OTT1SOG28
FLA @ BUFSam BennettCWizLine 2.60 · 47.4% overBook 44.5% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+112Miss−1.00uFLA @ BUF1SOG
FLA @ BUFSam BennettCWizLine 2.60 · 47.4% overBook 44.5% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+112Miss−1.00uFLA @ BUF1SOG29
NJD vs OTTEvan RodriguesCWizLine 1.71 · 50.0% underBook 47.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uNJD vs OTT4SOG
NJD vs OTTEvan RodriguesCWizLine 1.71 · 50.0% underBook 47.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uNJD vs OTT4SOG30
MIN vs VGKBlake ColemanLWWizLine 2.13 · 61.4% overBook 58.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00uMIN vs VGK1SOG
MIN vs VGKBlake ColemanLWWizLine 2.13 · 61.4% overBook 58.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00uMIN vs VGK1SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →