NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Wed, Oct 14, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedWed, Oct 14−0.25u17-16 · 51.5%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Wed, Oct 14 · graded at the close
33 skaters a book priced, across 2 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games2
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
DAL @ COLTyler SeguinCWizLine 1.46 · 57.6% underBook 42.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00u
DAL @ COL3SOG
DAL @ COLTyler SeguinCWizLine 1.46 · 57.6% underBook 42.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+120Miss−1.00uDAL @ COL3SOG2
COL vs DALCale MakarDWizLine 2.14 · 64.1% underBook 50.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−114Hit+0.88u
COL vs DAL2SOG
COL vs DALCale MakarDWizLine 2.14 · 64.1% underBook 50.9% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−114Hit+0.88uCOL vs DAL2SOG3
DAL @ COLJamie BennLWWizLine 1.15 · 68.1% underBook 56.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uDAL @ COL2SOG
DAL @ COLJamie BennLWWizLine 1.15 · 68.1% underBook 56.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Miss−1.00uDAL @ COL2SOG4
WSH vs MTLAlex OvechkinLWWizLine 2.30 · 60.0% underBook 49.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95u
WSH vs MTL0SOG
WSH vs MTLAlex OvechkinLWWizLine 2.30 · 60.0% underBook 49.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uWSH vs MTL0SOG5
DAL @ COLJason RobertsonLWWizLine 2.88 · 67.2% underBook 57.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−156Hit+0.64uDAL @ COL3SOG
DAL @ COLJason RobertsonLWWizLine 2.88 · 67.2% underBook 57.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−156Hit+0.64uDAL @ COL3SOG6
COL vs DALNathan MacKinnonCWizLine 3.61 · 52.3% underBook 42.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG+125Miss−1.00uCOL vs DAL4SOG
COL vs DALNathan MacKinnonCWizLine 3.61 · 52.3% underBook 42.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG+125Miss−1.00uCOL vs DAL4SOG7
WSH vs MTLRyan LeonardRWWizLine 1.95 · 43.1% underBook 35.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+150Hit+1.50uWSH vs MTL1SOG
WSH vs MTLRyan LeonardRWWizLine 1.95 · 43.1% underBook 35.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+150Hit+1.50uWSH vs MTL1SOG8
COL vs DALNazem KadriCWizLine 2.24 · 61.4% underBook 54.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uCOL vs DAL2SOG
COL vs DALNazem KadriCWizLine 2.24 · 61.4% underBook 54.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uCOL vs DAL2SOG9
MTL @ WSHCole CaufieldRWWizLine 3.23 · 60.0% underBook 53.3% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77u
MTL @ WSH0SOG
MTL @ WSHCole CaufieldRWWizLine 3.23 · 60.0% underBook 53.3% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−130Hit+0.77uMTL @ WSH0SOG10
DAL @ COLMiro HeiskanenDWizLine 1.59 · 53.6% underBook 46.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uDAL @ COL2SOG
DAL @ COLMiro HeiskanenDWizLine 1.59 · 53.6% underBook 46.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uDAL @ COL2SOG11
MTL @ WSHNoah DobsonDWizLine 1.80 · 47.1% underBook 40.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uMTL @ WSH5SOG
MTL @ WSHNoah DobsonDWizLine 1.80 · 47.1% underBook 40.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uMTL @ WSH5SOG12
WSH vs MTLDylan StromeCWizLine 1.70 · 50.2% underBook 44.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+116Hit+1.16uWSH vs MTL1SOG
WSH vs MTLDylan StromeCWizLine 1.70 · 50.2% underBook 44.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+116Hit+1.16uWSH vs MTL1SOG13
DAL @ COLMikko RantanenRWWizLine 2.04 · 66.7% underBook 61.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uDAL @ COL1SOG
DAL @ COLMikko RantanenRWWizLine 2.04 · 66.7% underBook 61.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uDAL @ COL1SOG14
MTL @ WSHChris KreiderLWWizLine 1.60 · 53.2% underBook 47.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uMTL @ WSH1SOG
MTL @ WSHChris KreiderLWWizLine 1.60 · 53.2% underBook 47.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uMTL @ WSH1SOG15
MTL @ WSHJuraj SlafkovskýLWWizLine 2.42 · 57.1% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−128Miss−1.00uMTL @ WSH4SOG
MTL @ WSHJuraj SlafkovskýLWWizLine 2.42 · 57.1% underBook 52.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−128Miss−1.00uMTL @ WSH4SOG16
WSH vs MTLCole HutsonDWizLine 1.60 · 53.1% underBook 48.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uWSH vs MTL3SOG
WSH vs MTLCole HutsonDWizLine 1.60 · 53.1% underBook 48.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uWSH vs MTL3SOG17
DAL @ COLRoope HintzCWizLine 1.97 · 42.6% underBook 38.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+135Hit+1.35uDAL @ COL1SOG
DAL @ COLRoope HintzCWizLine 1.97 · 42.6% underBook 38.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+135Hit+1.35uDAL @ COL1SOG18
DAL @ COLThomas HarleyDWizLine 1.59 · 53.4% underBook 49.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−115Miss−1.00uDAL @ COL3SOG
DAL @ COLThomas HarleyDWizLine 1.59 · 53.4% underBook 49.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−115Miss−1.00uDAL @ COL3SOG19
COL vs DALT.J. HughesRWWizLine 1.77 · 48.2% underBook 44.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uCOL vs DAL0SOG
COL vs DALT.J. HughesRWWizLine 1.77 · 48.2% underBook 44.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+110Hit+1.10uCOL vs DAL0SOG20
WSH vs MTLTom WilsonRWWizLine 1.99 · 41.9% underBook 38.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+150Miss−1.00uWSH vs MTL5SOG
WSH vs MTLTom WilsonRWWizLine 1.99 · 41.9% underBook 38.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+150Miss−1.00uWSH vs MTL5SOG21
COL vs DALArtturi LehkonenLWWizLine 1.96 · 57.3% overBook 54.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uCOL vs DAL1SOG
COL vs DALArtturi LehkonenLWWizLine 1.96 · 57.3% overBook 54.2% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uCOL vs DAL1SOG22
WSH vs MTLAliaksei ProtasLWWizLine 1.82 · 53.2% overBook 50.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uWSH vs MTL1SOG
WSH vs MTLAliaksei ProtasLWWizLine 1.82 · 53.2% overBook 50.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−120Miss−1.00uWSH vs MTL1SOG23
WSH vs MTLBoone JennerCWizLine 1.96 · 57.1% overBook 54.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uWSH vs MTL0SOG
WSH vs MTLBoone JennerCWizLine 1.96 · 57.1% overBook 54.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uWSH vs MTL0SOG24
COL vs DALBrock NelsonCWizLine 1.96 · 57.1% overBook 54.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uCOL vs DAL2SOG
COL vs DALBrock NelsonCWizLine 1.96 · 57.1% overBook 54.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uCOL vs DAL2SOG25
WSH vs MTLIlya ProtasLWWizLine 1.37 · 39.5% overBook 37.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+150Miss−1.00uWSH vs MTL0SOG
WSH vs MTLIlya ProtasLWWizLine 1.37 · 39.5% overBook 37.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+150Miss−1.00uWSH vs MTL0SOG26
COL vs DALGabriel LandeskogLWWizLine 1.94 · 56.7% overBook 54.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uCOL vs DAL2SOG
COL vs DALGabriel LandeskogLWWizLine 1.94 · 56.7% overBook 54.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uCOL vs DAL2SOG27
COL vs DALBrent BurnsDWizLine 1.68 · 49.3% overBook 47.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uCOL vs DAL1SOG
COL vs DALBrent BurnsDWizLine 1.68 · 49.3% overBook 47.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−105Miss−1.00uCOL vs DAL1SOG28
WSH vs MTLAlex TuchRWWizLine 2.48 · 44.5% overBook 42.8% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+122Hit+1.22uWSH vs MTL3SOG
WSH vs MTLAlex TuchRWWizLine 2.48 · 44.5% overBook 42.8% at the closeOver 2.5 SOG+122Hit+1.22uWSH vs MTL3SOG29
MTL @ WSHLane HutsonDWizLine 1.79 · 52.4% overBook 50.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uMTL @ WSH3SOG
MTL @ WSHLane HutsonDWizLine 1.79 · 52.4% overBook 50.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−115Hit+0.87uMTL @ WSH3SOG30
MTL @ WSHNick SuzukiCWizLine 2.43 · 56.8% underBook 55.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−144Miss−1.00uMTL @ WSH3SOG
MTL @ WSHNick SuzukiCWizLine 2.43 · 56.8% underBook 55.5% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−144Miss−1.00uMTL @ WSH3SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →