NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Sat, Oct 17, graded
2026-27 · 2822 gradedSat, Oct 17+17.96u140-103 · 57.6%
Season to date−36.78u1491-1331 · 52.8%
Every over, blind−261.32u1339-1483 · 47.4%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Sat, Oct 17 · graded at the close
248 skaters a book priced, across 14 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games14
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
TOR vs NYINick BlankenburgDWizLine 0.94 · 75.8% underBook 58.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−165Hit+0.61u
TOR vs NYI1SOG
TOR vs NYINick BlankenburgDWizLine 0.94 · 75.8% underBook 58.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−165Hit+0.61uTOR vs NYI1SOG2
DAL @ CHINils LundkvistDWizLine 1.01 · 73.4% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65u
DAL @ CHI1SOG
DAL @ CHINils LundkvistDWizLine 1.01 · 73.4% underBook 56.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uDAL @ CHI1SOG3
DET vs SJSNate DanielsonCWizLine 1.08 · 70.7% underBook 55.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65u
DET vs SJS0SOG
DET vs SJSNate DanielsonCWizLine 1.08 · 70.7% underBook 55.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uDET vs SJS0SOG4
OTT @ PHICarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.21 · 66.2% underBook 51.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00u
OTT @ PHI2SOG
OTT @ PHICarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.21 · 66.2% underBook 51.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uOTT @ PHI2SOG5
VAN @ TBLBrendan GallagherRWWizLine 1.24 · 65.0% underBook 50.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80u
VAN @ TBL1SOG
VAN @ TBLBrendan GallagherRWWizLine 1.24 · 65.0% underBook 50.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uVAN @ TBL1SOG6
OTT @ PHIAndre BurakovskyLWWizLine 1.01 · 73.1% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uOTT @ PHI0SOG
OTT @ PHIAndre BurakovskyLWWizLine 1.01 · 73.1% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uOTT @ PHI0SOG7
PHI vs OTTPorter MartoneRWWizLine 1.42 · 59.0% underBook 46.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00u
PHI vs OTT4SOG
PHI vs OTTPorter MartoneRWWizLine 1.42 · 59.0% underBook 46.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Miss−1.00uPHI vs OTT4SOG8
FLA vs SEAGustav ForslingDWizLine 1.41 · 59.4% underBook 46.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95u
FLA vs SEA1SOG
FLA vs SEAGustav ForslingDWizLine 1.41 · 59.4% underBook 46.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uFLA vs SEA1SOG9
BUF @ MTLOlen ZellwegerDWizLine 1.57 · 54.2% underBook 41.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+135Miss−1.00u
BUF @ MTL4SOG
BUF @ MTLOlen ZellwegerDWizLine 1.57 · 54.2% underBook 41.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+135Miss−1.00uBUF @ MTL4SOG10
FLA vs SEAUvis BalinskisDWizLine 1.04 · 72.1% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uFLA vs SEA0SOG
FLA vs SEAUvis BalinskisDWizLine 1.04 · 72.1% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−190Hit+0.53uFLA vs SEA0SOG11
WSH vs NJDIlya ProtasLWWizLine 1.27 · 70.9% overBook 58.6% at the closeOver 0.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59u
WSH vs NJD3SOG
WSH vs NJDIlya ProtasLWWizLine 1.27 · 70.9% overBook 58.6% at the closeOver 0.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uWSH vs NJD3SOG12
TBL vs VANVictor HedmanDWizLine 1.12 · 69.5% underBook 57.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00u
TBL vs VAN4SOG
TBL vs VANVictor HedmanDWizLine 1.12 · 69.5% underBook 57.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−165Miss−1.00uTBL vs VAN4SOG13
STL @ NSHAdam JiricekDWizLine 1.42 · 59.1% underBook 47.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95u
STL @ NSH1SOG
STL @ NSHAdam JiricekDWizLine 1.42 · 59.1% underBook 47.1% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−105Hit+0.95uSTL @ NSH1SOG14
EDM @ UTALeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.40 · 57.4% underBook 45.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+106Hit+1.06u
EDM @ UTA1SOG
EDM @ UTALeon DraisaitlCWizLine 2.40 · 57.4% underBook 45.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG+106Hit+1.06uEDM @ UTA1SOG15
VGK vs PITBrett HowdenCWizLine 1.47 · 57.3% underBook 46.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00u
VGK vs PIT0SOG
VGK vs PITBrett HowdenCWizLine 1.47 · 57.3% underBook 46.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uVGK vs PIT0SOG16
VGK vs PITTrevor ConnellyLWWizLine 1.68 · 50.9% underBook 39.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uVGK vs PIT2SOG
VGK vs PITTrevor ConnellyLWWizLine 1.68 · 50.9% underBook 39.9% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uVGK vs PIT2SOG17
VGK vs PITDylan CoghlanDWizLine 1.10 · 70.0% underBook 59.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Hit+0.57uVGK vs PIT0SOG
VGK vs PITDylan CoghlanDWizLine 1.10 · 70.0% underBook 59.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Hit+0.57uVGK vs PIT0SOG18
MTL vs BUFNoah DobsonDWizLine 1.85 · 71.7% underBook 61.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−180Miss−1.00u
MTL vs BUF3SOG
MTL vs BUFNoah DobsonDWizLine 1.85 · 71.7% underBook 61.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−180Miss−1.00uMTL vs BUF3SOG19
OTT @ PHIStephen HallidayCWizLine 1.28 · 63.6% underBook 53.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uOTT @ PHI4SOG
OTT @ PHIStephen HallidayCWizLine 1.28 · 63.6% underBook 53.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−125Miss−1.00uOTT @ PHI4SOG20
EDM @ UTAIsaac HowardLWWizLine 1.07 · 71.2% underBook 61.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−200Hit+0.50uEDM @ UTA0SOG
EDM @ UTAIsaac HowardLWWizLine 1.07 · 71.2% underBook 61.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−200Hit+0.50uEDM @ UTA0SOG21
FLA vs SEAAnton LundellCWizLine 2.32 · 65.9% overBook 55.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−150Miss−1.00uFLA vs SEA1SOG
FLA vs SEAAnton LundellCWizLine 2.32 · 65.9% overBook 55.8% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−150Miss−1.00uFLA vs SEA1SOG22
NJD @ WSHDawson MercerCWizLine 1.85 · 54.1% overBook 44.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uNJD @ WSH1SOG
NJD @ WSHDawson MercerCWizLine 1.85 · 54.1% overBook 44.1% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uNJD @ WSH1SOG23
DAL @ CHITyler SeguinCWizLine 1.67 · 51.1% underBook 41.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uDAL @ CHI2SOG
DAL @ CHITyler SeguinCWizLine 1.67 · 51.1% underBook 41.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uDAL @ CHI2SOG24
VGK vs PITJeremy LauzonDWizLine 1.12 · 69.1% underBook 59.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Hit+0.57uVGK vs PIT0SOG
VGK vs PITJeremy LauzonDWizLine 1.12 · 69.1% underBook 59.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Hit+0.57uVGK vs PIT0SOG25
EDM @ UTAJake WalmanDWizLine 1.29 · 63.2% underBook 53.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uEDM @ UTA0SOG
EDM @ UTAJake WalmanDWizLine 1.29 · 63.2% underBook 53.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−135Hit+0.74uEDM @ UTA0SOG26
CBJ vs NYRKent JohnsonCWizLine 1.63 · 52.2% underBook 42.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+135Miss−1.00u
CBJ vs NYR4SOG
CBJ vs NYRKent JohnsonCWizLine 1.63 · 52.2% underBook 42.7% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+135Miss−1.00uCBJ vs NYR4SOG27
BOS @ LAKDavid PastrnakRWWizLine 2.95 · 65.8% underBook 56.3% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−146Hit+0.68u
BOS @ LAK3SOG
BOS @ LAKDavid PastrnakRWWizLine 2.95 · 65.8% underBook 56.3% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−146Hit+0.68uBOS @ LAK3SOG28
PHI vs OTTMatvei MichkovRWWizLine 1.64 · 51.8% underBook 42.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+125Miss−1.00uPHI vs OTT3SOG
PHI vs OTTMatvei MichkovRWWizLine 1.64 · 51.8% underBook 42.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+125Miss−1.00uPHI vs OTT3SOG29
UTA vs EDMBarrett HaytonCWizLine 1.44 · 58.3% underBook 49.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00u
UTA vs EDM1SOG
UTA vs EDMBarrett HaytonCWizLine 1.44 · 58.3% underBook 49.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Hit+1.00uUTA vs EDM1SOG30
WSH vs NJDAlex OvechkinLWWizLine 2.18 · 63.1% underBook 54.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uWSH vs NJD1SOG
WSH vs NJDAlex OvechkinLWWizLine 2.18 · 63.1% underBook 54.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uWSH vs NJD1SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →