NHL Shots on Goal
Every skater's shot rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward his position so a fourth-liner's hot week doesn't read as a top line.
Wed, Oct 21, graded
2026-27 · 2791 gradedWed, Oct 21−1.02u23-19 · 54.8%
Season to date−28.76u1480-1311 · 53.0%
Every over, blind−253.30u1327-1464 · 47.5%
Every player a book priced, graded the morning after on the side our number preferred at the close. Not picks — nothing here was posted. Units are a flat 1u at the best closing price on that side across books, which is a little kinder than any one book. The dashed cell takes the over on every line with no model at all — if we can't beat that, the number isn't adding anything.
Wed, Oct 21 · graded at the close
43 skaters a book priced, across 2 games. Each is graded on the side our number preferred at the close, at the line most books hung and the best closing price on that side. Green hit, red missed.
Games2
Position
Result
SkaterMatchupResult
1
PHI @ BUFAlex BumpLWWizLine 1.32 · 62.4% underBook 45.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00u
PHI @ BUF3SOG
PHI @ BUFAlex BumpLWWizLine 1.32 · 62.4% underBook 45.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uPHI @ BUF3SOG2
OTT vs FLAJake SandersonDWizLine 1.71 · 75.1% underBook 59.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−175Miss−1.00u
OTT vs FLA4SOG
OTT vs FLAJake SandersonDWizLine 1.71 · 75.1% underBook 59.8% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−175Miss−1.00uOTT vs FLA4SOG3
PHI @ BUFMatvei MichkovRWWizLine 1.83 · 72.0% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−168Hit+0.60uPHI @ BUF2SOG
PHI @ BUFMatvei MichkovRWWizLine 1.83 · 72.0% underBook 58.6% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−168Hit+0.60uPHI @ BUF2SOG4
FLA @ OTTGustav ForslingDWizLine 1.17 · 67.5% underBook 54.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69u
FLA @ OTT1SOG
FLA @ OTTGustav ForslingDWizLine 1.17 · 67.5% underBook 54.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−145Hit+0.69uFLA @ OTT1SOG5
BUF vs PHIJiri KulichCWizLine 1.43 · 58.6% underBook 46.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05u
BUF vs PHI1SOG
BUF vs PHIJiri KulichCWizLine 1.43 · 58.6% underBook 46.2% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+105Hit+1.05uBUF vs PHI1SOG6
FLA @ OTTMatthew TkachukLWWizLine 2.21 · 62.3% underBook 50.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−114Hit+0.88uFLA @ OTT2SOG
FLA @ OTTMatthew TkachukLWWizLine 2.21 · 62.3% underBook 50.0% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−114Hit+0.88uFLA @ OTT2SOG7
FLA @ OTTBrady TkachukLWWizLine 2.80 · 69.0% underBook 57.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−152Hit+0.66uFLA @ OTT3SOG
FLA @ OTTBrady TkachukLWWizLine 2.80 · 69.0% underBook 57.8% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−152Hit+0.66uFLA @ OTT3SOG8
PHI @ BUFPorter MartoneRWWizLine 1.60 · 53.2% underBook 42.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+120Hit+1.20uPHI @ BUF1SOG
PHI @ BUFPorter MartoneRWWizLine 1.60 · 53.2% underBook 42.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+120Hit+1.20uPHI @ BUF1SOG9
OTT vs FLACarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.26 · 64.5% underBook 55.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uOTT vs FLA0SOG
OTT vs FLACarter YakemchukDWizLine 1.26 · 64.5% underBook 55.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−155Hit+0.65uOTT vs FLA0SOG10
FLA @ OTTCarter VerhaegheCWizLine 2.10 · 65.2% underBook 57.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uFLA @ OTT1SOG
FLA @ OTTCarter VerhaegheCWizLine 2.10 · 65.2% underBook 57.3% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−140Hit+0.71uFLA @ OTT1SOG11
BUF vs PHIOlen ZellwegerDWizLine 1.58 · 53.7% underBook 45.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uBUF vs PHI2SOG
BUF vs PHIOlen ZellwegerDWizLine 1.58 · 53.7% underBook 45.8% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+100Miss−1.00uBUF vs PHI2SOG12
PHI @ BUFMichael BuntingLWWizLine 1.31 · 62.8% underBook 55.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−140VoidPHI @ BUF—
PHI @ BUFMichael BuntingLWWizLine 1.31 · 62.8% underBook 55.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−140VoidPHI @ BUF—13
BUF vs PHIRasmus DahlinDWizLine 2.25 · 61.2% underBook 54.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−138Miss−1.00uBUF vs PHI4SOG
BUF vs PHIRasmus DahlinDWizLine 2.25 · 61.2% underBook 54.4% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−138Miss−1.00uBUF vs PHI4SOG14
FLA @ OTTAaron EkbladDWizLine 1.22 · 65.6% underBook 59.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54uFLA @ OTT0SOG
FLA @ OTTAaron EkbladDWizLine 1.22 · 65.6% underBook 59.4% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−185Hit+0.54uFLA @ OTT0SOG15
BUF vs PHILouis CrevierDWizLine 1.18 · 67.3% underBook 61.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−200Hit+0.50uBUF vs PHI0SOG
BUF vs PHILouis CrevierDWizLine 1.18 · 67.3% underBook 61.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−200Hit+0.50uBUF vs PHI0SOG16
OTT vs FLADrake BathersonRWWizLine 2.06 · 66.0% underBook 60.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uOTT vs FLA1SOG
OTT vs FLADrake BathersonRWWizLine 2.06 · 66.0% underBook 60.1% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−170Hit+0.59uOTT vs FLA1SOG17
BUF vs PHIJosh NorrisCWizLine 1.48 · 56.8% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uBUF vs PHI0SOG
BUF vs PHIJosh NorrisCWizLine 1.48 · 56.8% underBook 51.0% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−120Hit+0.83uBUF vs PHI0SOG18
BUF vs PHIJason ZuckerLWWizLine 1.93 · 56.5% overBook 50.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uBUF vs PHI3SOG
BUF vs PHIJason ZuckerLWWizLine 1.93 · 56.5% overBook 50.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−110Hit+0.91uBUF vs PHI3SOG19
FLA @ OTTSam BennettCWizLine 2.23 · 61.7% underBook 56.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−150Hit+0.67uFLA @ OTT2SOG
FLA @ OTTSam BennettCWizLine 2.23 · 61.7% underBook 56.2% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−150Hit+0.67uFLA @ OTT2SOG20
PHI @ BUFNoah CatesLWWizLine 1.28 · 63.7% underBook 58.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Hit+0.57uPHI @ BUF0SOG
PHI @ BUFNoah CatesLWWizLine 1.28 · 63.7% underBook 58.3% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−175Hit+0.57uPHI @ BUF0SOG21
BUF vs PHITage ThompsonCWizLine 3.29 · 58.8% underBook 53.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uBUF vs PHI3SOG
BUF vs PHITage ThompsonCWizLine 3.29 · 58.8% underBook 53.4% at the closeUnder 3.5 SOG−125Hit+0.80uBUF vs PHI3SOG22
OTT vs FLAWarren FoegeleLWWizLine 1.25 · 64.7% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−190Miss−1.00uOTT vs FLA4SOG
OTT vs FLAWarren FoegeleLWWizLine 1.25 · 64.7% underBook 59.6% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG−190Miss−1.00uOTT vs FLA4SOG23
PHI @ BUFCole KnubleRWWizLine 1.53 · 44.7% overBook 40.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+125Hit+1.25uPHI @ BUF4SOG
PHI @ BUFCole KnubleRWWizLine 1.53 · 44.7% overBook 40.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+125Hit+1.25uPHI @ BUF4SOG24
PHI @ BUFSean CouturierCWizLine 1.62 · 47.5% overBook 43.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uPHI @ BUF1SOG
PHI @ BUFSean CouturierCWizLine 1.62 · 47.5% overBook 43.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+115Miss−1.00uPHI @ BUF1SOG25
OTT vs FLARidly GreigCWizLine 1.66 · 48.8% overBook 45.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uOTT vs FLA1SOG
OTT vs FLARidly GreigCWizLine 1.66 · 48.8% overBook 45.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+110Miss−1.00uOTT vs FLA1SOG26
BUF vs PHIJosh DoanRWWizLine 1.90 · 44.4% underBook 41.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+126Miss−1.00uBUF vs PHI2SOG
BUF vs PHIJosh DoanRWWizLine 1.90 · 44.4% underBook 41.5% at the closeUnder 1.5 SOG+126Miss−1.00uBUF vs PHI2SOG27
OTT vs FLAShane PintoCWizLine 2.02 · 58.8% overBook 56.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−146Hit+0.68uOTT vs FLA2SOG
OTT vs FLAShane PintoCWizLine 2.02 · 58.8% overBook 56.4% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−146Hit+0.68uOTT vs FLA2SOG28
FLA @ OTTSeth JonesDWizLine 1.84 · 54.0% overBook 51.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−122Hit+0.82uFLA @ OTT3SOG
FLA @ OTTSeth JonesDWizLine 1.84 · 54.0% overBook 51.6% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG−122Hit+0.82uFLA @ OTT3SOG29
OTT vs FLADylan CozensCWizLine 2.30 · 60.0% underBook 57.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uOTT vs FLA4SOG
OTT vs FLADylan CozensCWizLine 2.30 · 60.0% underBook 57.7% at the closeUnder 2.5 SOG−145Miss−1.00uOTT vs FLA4SOG30
BUF vs PHIKonsta HeleniusCWizLine 1.44 · 41.7% overBook 39.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uBUF vs PHI0SOG
BUF vs PHIKonsta HeleniusCWizLine 1.44 · 41.7% overBook 39.5% at the closeOver 1.5 SOG+130Miss−1.00uBUF vs PHI0SOGNot picks. Nothing here was posted — this is every priced player, graded the morning after, so the record can't be cherry-picked. Tonight's shots on goal board →