Play of the Day: 1-for-2 with a -16% ROI
The headline call went 1 for 2 this week. Return on investment came in at -16%.
Two Plays of the Day, one hit. It's the smallest sample of the week, but the ledger doesn't round in our favour.
Posted plays: 10-for-18, and a Diamondbacks flip
Across every posted call — team totals and player props — MatchWiz finished 10 for 18. By type, team totals went 9 for 16 and props went 1 for 2. By lean, overs hit 8 of 15 and unders hit 2 of 3.
The week's sharpest turn belongs to Arizona. On 6 July, their team total over 3.5 at -139 cashed easily — Arizona scored 8. The very next day, the same call at -113 missed when Arizona managed just 1 run.
Colorado matched that with two misses of its own: team total over 3.5 on 8 July (-125, actual 3) and again on 11 July (-130, actual 2).
Tarik Skubal produced the sharpest individual miss. Called under 8.5 strikeouts at -142 on 7 July, he struck out 9.
Not everything went wrong. The Milwaukee Brewers hit team total over 3.5 twice — 6 July at -145 (actual 4) and 12 July at -125 (actual 5). The Atlanta Braves did the same at -110 on both 7 July and 12 July, each time landing on 4. The Pittsburgh Pirates (-148, actual 7) and Toronto Blue Jays (-110, actual 7) both cleared their overs on 11 July. On the under side, the Philadelphia Phillies (under 5.5 at -130, actual 5) and Los Angeles Dodgers (under 5.5 at -122, actual 3) both held. Dustin May's over 3.5 strikeouts at -145 hit too, with 7 strikeouts on 6 July.
The rest of the misses: Minnesota's team total over 4.5 at -128 (actual 3), San Diego's team total over 3.5 at -130 (actual 3), Washington's team total over 3.5 at -105 (actual 3), and the Athletics' team total over 3.5 at -135 (actual 1).
Ranked matchups: chalk holds, the tail gets looser
The top 3 ranked matchups went 45 for 101. The top 5 went 208 for 465. The top 10 went 419 for 941. The full board settled at 5,158 for 14,935.
Stat boards: Hits and Earned runs carry the week
Across 1,738 graded rows, Hits hit 60% on the full board. Total bases hit 50% on 899 rows, and H+R+RBI hit 51% on 819 rows.
On the pitcher side, Earned runs led with a 61% top 3 rate and 52% on the full board across 184 rows. Pitcher strikeouts landed 43% in the top 3 and 52% on the full board across 176 rows. Hits allowed went 45% top 3, 50% full board on 173 rows. Pitcher walks hit 45% top 3, 55% full board on 165 rows. Pitcher outs came in lower — 32% top 3, 48% full board on 159 rows.
DFS points hit 44% on the full board across 1,738 rows. Pitcher DFS points went 43% top 3 but only 33% on the full board across 194 rows.
The power numbers stayed cold. Home runs hit just 13% of the time on 1,738 rows, stolen bases only 6%. RBI landed 29%, runs 38%, walks 28%.
Golf: the top picks never got close
Two events graded this week, and both were rough for MatchWiz's top pick. At the Genesis Scottish Open, Scottie Scheffler was our top-ranked player; he finished 99th. The winner ranked 27th on our board. Six of our top 10 graded players made the cut.
At the ISCO Championship, JC Ritchie was our top pick and finished 108th. The winner ranked 20th on our board. Seven of our top 10 graded players made the cut, and our best finish among that group was 2nd.
UFC: 10-for-14, and a submission that stung
At UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, MatchWiz went 10 for 14 on straight picks.
The biggest upset came from Lone'er Kavanagh, who we gave a 68% chance to win. He lost by submission.
Every posted play this week
10 of 18 landed — 9 of 16 on team totals, 1 of 2 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 | Arizona Diamondbacks | team total over 3.5 | -139 | 8 | Hit |
| 07-06 | Dustin May | over 3.5 strikeouts | -145 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-06 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -145 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-07 | Arizona Diamondbacks | team total over 3.5 | -113 | 1 | Miss |
| 07-07 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-07 | Tarik Skubal | under 8.5 strikeouts | -142 | 9 | Miss |
| 07-08 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-08 | Philadelphia Phillies | team total under 5.5 | -130 | 5 | Hit |
| 07-10 | Los Angeles Dodgers | team total under 5.5 | -122 | 3 | Hit |
| 07-10 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 4.5 | -128 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-10 | San Diego Padres | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-10 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -105 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-11 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 2 | Miss |
| 07-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | -148 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-11 | Toronto Blue Jays | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-12 | Athletics | team total over 3.5 | -135 | 1 | Miss |
| 07-12 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-12 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 5 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.