Play of the Day: a rough two-game stretch
Only two Plays of the Day went out this week. One hit. That's a 1-for-2 week for the pool, and it closed at -16% ROI.
Small sample, ugly number. No dressing it up — the headline call lost money this week.
The ranked boards underneath
Away from the single headline call, the ranked matchups tell a steadier story. Top 3 ranked matchups went 45 of 101. Top 5 ranked went 208 of 465. Top 10 ranked went 419 of 941.
The full board — every matchup MatchWiz ranked, not just the top tiers — hit 5,158 of 14,935.
MLB stat boards: hits carry, home runs don't
Across 1,738 graded lines, the Hits board hit 60% full-board. Total bases hit 50% on 899 lines. H+R+RBI hit 51% on 819 lines.
Home runs stayed the outlier at 13%, with stolen bases even lower at 6%. Walks landed at 28%, RBI at 29%, runs at 38%, DFS points at 44%.
On the pitching side, Earned runs was the strongest, 61% top 3 and 52% full board across 184 lines. Pitcher walks hit 55% full board. Pitcher strikeouts hit 52% full board but only 43% top 3 across 176 lines. Pitcher outs lagged at 32% top 3 and 48% full board on 159 lines. Pitcher DFS points sat at 43% top 3, 33% full board on 194 lines. Hits allowed came in at 45% top 3, 50% full board.
The posted plays: Skubal breaks the under
Ten of 18 posted plays hit this week — nine of 16 team totals, one of two player props.
The prop miss stings. Tarik Skubal was called under 8.5 strikeouts at -142 on July 7th. He went over, finishing with 9.0.
Arizona Diamondbacks team totals went both ways. The July 6th call, over 3.5 at -139, cashed easily — Arizona scored 8. The very next day, the same call at -113 missed when Arizona managed just 1 run.
Colorado Rockies overs over 3.5 also lost twice, on July 8th (-125, actual 3) and July 11th (-130, actual 2).
On the other side, Toronto Blue Jays over 3.5 at -110 hit with 7 runs on July 11th, and Pittsburgh Pirates over 3.5 at -148 hit the same day with 7 runs. Milwaukee Brewers overs cashed twice, on July 6th (-145, actual 4) and July 12th (-125, actual 5). Atlanta Braves overs at 3.5 also hit twice, July 7th (-110, actual 4) and July 12th (-110, actual 4).
By lean, overs went 8 of 15 and unders went 2 of 3 this week.
Golf: the winner wasn't on the list
Two events graded. At the Genesis Scottish Open, our top pick was Scottie Scheffler, who finished 72nd. The player who actually won was ranked 27th on our board — a clear miss on the winner. Of the top 10 graded, 5 finished inside the top 25, and 6 of that top 10 made the cut in an event that had one.
At the ISCO Championship, our top pick JC Ritchie finished 108th, and the eventual winner was ranked 20th on our board. Four of the top 10 finished inside the top 25, and 7 of the top 10 made the cut. The best finish from our top 10 across the week was a runner-up at ISCO.
UFC: 10-for-14, undone by a submission
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 graded 14 fights. MatchWiz went 10 of 14 on straight picks.
The biggest upset was Lone'er Kavanagh, given a 68% win probability, who lost by submission.
Every posted play this week
10 of 18 landed — 9 of 16 on team totals, 1 of 2 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 | Arizona Diamondbacks | team total over 3.5 | -139 | 8 | Hit |
| 07-06 | Dustin May | over 3.5 strikeouts | -145 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-06 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -145 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-07 | Arizona Diamondbacks | team total over 3.5 | -113 | 1 | Miss |
| 07-07 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-07 | Tarik Skubal | under 8.5 strikeouts | -142 | 9 | Miss |
| 07-08 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-08 | Philadelphia Phillies | team total under 5.5 | -130 | 5 | Hit |
| 07-10 | Los Angeles Dodgers | team total under 5.5 | -122 | 3 | Hit |
| 07-10 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 4.5 | -128 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-10 | San Diego Padres | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-10 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -105 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-11 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 2 | Miss |
| 07-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | -148 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-11 | Toronto Blue Jays | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-12 | Athletics | team total over 3.5 | -135 | 1 | Miss |
| 07-12 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-12 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 5 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.