The Headline Call
Plays of the Day went 2 of 4 this week. ROI came in at -15%. That's a losing week for the single biggest call on the site, and it's reported here the same way a winning week would be.
Four plays isn't a big sample, but the site doesn't hide behind that. Two hit, two didn't, and the ROI line reflects it plainly.
MLB: The Ranked Boards
Across the ranked matchups, the top 3 ranked calls went 27 of 59. Top 5 ranked went 110 of 327. Top 10 ranked went 232 of 636. The full board finished 2,523 of 7,492.
On the individual stat boards, earned runs was the standout: 75% at the top 3 and 53% across the full board of 81 pitchers. Pitcher outs held up too, 56% top 3 and 47% full. Hits was the strongest hitter board at 60% full across 864 graded lines. Home runs and stolen bases were the toughest all week, landing at 11% and 7% full respectively.
The Posted Plays
The posted plays finished 8 of 13 for the week. That's a separate ledger from Plays of the Day, and it's worth keeping them separate: this is every surfaced call, not just the headline one.
The biggest miss was the Athletics team total under 5.5 at -110. They scored 15. Tarik Skubal's under 8.5 strikeouts at -113 also missed, he went for 9. So did Paul Skenes' under 7.5 strikeouts at -148 — he finished with 8.
On the other side, Michael McGreevy's over 2.5 strikeouts at -162 cashed easily with 5. Hunter Brown's under 7.5 strikeouts at -130 held, he finished with 4. The Braves hit two team totals over the week — over 4.5 at +102 (they scored 6) and over 3.5 at -140 (they scored 8). Baltimore's over 3.5 at -133 hit with 4 runs, San Diego's under 5.5 at -115 hit with just 1, San Francisco's over 2.5 at -154 hit with 3, and Colorado's over 4.5 at -118 hit with 6.
The Brewers' over 3.5 at -150 missed with just 2 runs, and Miami's over 3.5 at -124 missed with just 1. By type, props went 2 of 4 and team totals went 6 of 9. By lean, overs went 6 of 8 and unders went 2 of 5.
Golf: A Miss on the Winner
At The Open, our top pick Scottie Scheffler finished 4th. The player who actually won was ranked 55th by our board — a clear miss on the winner even with a strong top pick. The top 10 graded held up reasonably: 9 of the top 10 made the cut, and the best top 10 finish was 2nd.
At the Corales Puntacana Championship, our top pick Keenan Huskey finished 43rd. The winner there was ranked 124th on our board. Seven of the top 10 graded made the cut, with a best top 10 finish of 11th.
UFC: A Clean Card, One Close Call
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman went 11 of 12 correct on straight picks. The one miss was the biggest upset of the week: Seokhyeon Ko, given a 51% win probability, lost by unanimous decision.
Soccer: A Quiet Week on the Boards
Across five MLS games, Match result went 2 of 5, Over/under 2.5 went 3 of 5, and Both teams to score went 2 of 5. None of the three markets cleared half this week.
Every posted play this week
8 of 13 landed — 6 of 9 on team totals, 2 of 4 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 | Michael McGreevy | over 2.5 strikeouts | -162 | 5 | Hit |
| 07-17 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -150 | 2 | Miss |
| 07-18 | Athletics | team total under 5.5 | -110 | 15 | Miss |
| 07-18 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 4.5 | +102 | 6 | Hit |
| 07-18 | Baltimore Orioles | team total over 3.5 | -133 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-18 | San Diego Padres | team total under 5.5 | -115 | 1 | Hit |
| 07-18 | San Francisco Giants | team total over 2.5 | -154 | 3 | Hit |
| 07-18 | Tarik Skubal | under 8.5 strikeouts | -113 | 9 | Miss |
| 07-19 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 3.5 | -140 | 8 | Hit |
| 07-19 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 4.5 | -118 | 6 | Hit |
| 07-19 | Hunter Brown | under 7.5 strikeouts | -130 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-19 | Miami Marlins | team total over 3.5 | -124 | 1 | Miss |
| 07-19 | Paul Skenes | under 7.5 strikeouts | -148 | 8 | Miss |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.