Play of the Day: 3 of 4
Four Plays of the Day went out this week. Three hit. That's a 30% ROI on the pool — the strongest kind of week for the headline call, even on a small sample.
Worth separating from what follows: this is the single daily pick, graded on its own. Everything else below is the much bigger set of posted plays, and it told a different story.
The ranked matchups
Top 3 ranked matchups went 75 of 111 for the week. Top 5 landed at 241 of 461. Top 10 came in at 434 of 939. The full board — 14,757 matchups — hit 5,018 times.
That's the shape you'd expect: the tighter the tier, the better the rate, though nothing this week ran away from the pack the way the Play of the Day pool did.
Stat by stat
Pitcher boards carried the week. Earned runs hit 81% in the top 3 and 55% across the full board of 185. Pitcher walks ran 80% top 3, 54% full, on 165 graded. Hits allowed went 62%/51% on 172, pitcher outs 60%/48% on 174, strikeouts 57%/51% on 175, and pitcher DFS points 67%/37% on 189.
The hitter side was rougher. Home runs graded at just 11% across 1,710. Stolen bases sat at 6%. Walks came in at 26%, RBI at 28%, runs at 38%. Hits held up better at 60%, total bases at 48% of 905, DFS points at 44%, and H+R+RBI at 50% of 822.
The posted plays: a costly under and a wired strikeout call
The posted-play record for the week: 14 of 23. Team totals went 11 of 19, props went 3 of 4. By lean, overs hit 13 of 20 while unders went just 1 of 3.
The worst of it: Milwaukee Brewers over 3.5 at -150 on July 21 — a heavily favoured call — and the Brewers were shut out. Athletics over 4.5 at -102 on July 24 also missed, with Cleveland Guardians over 3.5 at -125 held to a single run the day before. Chicago Cubs under 5.5 (-115) and Detroit Tigers under 5.5 (-105) both went the other way on July 20, with the Cubs scoring six and the Tigers eight.
On the other side, the Brewers flipped the script five days later: over 4.5 at -128 on July 26, and they put up 11. Chicago Cubs also cashed an over 4.5 at +123 that same day with seven runs.
The strikeout props were the highlight. Ronel Blanco went over 3.5 strikeouts at -143 and delivered eight. Max Fried went over 3.5 at -160 and struck out seven. Cristopher Sánchez went under 7.5 at -115 and finished with six. The one miss: Kohl Drake, over 3.5 strikeouts at -130, managed just one.
Golf: the 3M Open
Scottie Scheffler was the top-ranked pick and finished second. The player who actually won the tournament was ranked seventh in our projections — a miss on the winner, even with the runner-up right. Of the ten players graded in the top 10, nine made the cut.
UFC: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Nine of 12 fights called correctly at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov. The biggest upset: Dustin Jacoby, given a 63% win probability, lost by KO/TKO.
Soccer: MLS markets
Across 22 MLS games, match result hit 11 of 22. Over/under 2.5 hit 14 of 22. Both teams to score hit 15 of 22 — the strongest of the three markets graded this week.
Every posted play this week
14 of 23 landed — 11 of 19 on team totals, 3 of 4 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 | Chicago Cubs | team total under 5.5 | -115 | 6 | Miss |
| 07-20 | Detroit Tigers | team total under 5.5 | -105 | 8 | Miss |
| 07-20 | Los Angeles Dodgers | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-20 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -141 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-20 | New York Yankees | team total over 3.5 | -128 | 8 | Hit |
| 07-20 | Ronel Blanco | over 3.5 strikeouts | -143 | 8 | Hit |
| 07-20 | Washington Nationals | team total over 6.5 | +108 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-21 | Atlanta Braves | team total over 4.5 | -111 | 3 | Miss |
| 07-21 | Chicago White Sox | team total over 4.5 | +118 | 0 | Miss |
| 07-21 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -150 | 0 | Miss |
| 07-21 | Toronto Blue Jays | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 2 | Miss |
| 07-22 | Max Fried | over 3.5 strikeouts | -160 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-22 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 10 | Hit |
| 07-22 | San Diego Padres | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 6 | Hit |
| 07-23 | Cleveland Guardians | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 1 | Miss |
| 07-24 | Athletics | team total over 4.5 | -102 | 2 | Miss |
| 07-24 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-24 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 2.5 | -154 | 5 | Hit |
| 07-26 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 4.5 | +123 | 7 | Hit |
| 07-26 | Cristopher Sánchez | under 7.5 strikeouts | -115 | 6 | Hit |
| 07-26 | Kohl Drake | over 3.5 strikeouts | -130 | 1 | Miss |
| 07-26 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 4.5 | -128 | 11 | Hit |
| 07-26 | Seattle Mariners | team total over 3.5 | -108 | 6 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.