The strikeout unders that didn't hold
Three pitcher strikeout unders got run over this week. Cristopher Sánchez was called under 7.5 strikeouts at -148 and finished with 11. Gavin Williams was called under 7.5 at -143 and finished with 10. Jacob Misiorowski was called under 9.5 at -131 and also finished with 10. All three missed by a wide margin.
Not every strikeout call went that way. Jake Bennett's over 3.5 strikeouts hit twice — once at -145 on July 28th with 4.0 strikeouts, and again at -112 on August 2nd, also landing on 4.0. Gage Jump's under 5.5 strikeouts hit exactly on the number at -115. Tarik Skubal's under 8.5 at -104 also cashed, coming in at 6.0.
Posted plays: 11 of 22
The posted-play record for the week sits at 11 of 22. Broken out by type, player props went 4 of 7 and team totals went 7 of 15. Broken out by lean, overs went 9 of 17 and unders went 2 of 5.
Team totals were a mixed bag. Kansas City's overs both hit — 4 in a 3.5 call and 6 in a 5.5 call. San Diego's team total over 4.5 at -105 hit big with 8 runs, and Miami's over 2.5 at -140 hit with 8. Cincinnati's team total over 3.5 missed twice, coming in at 1 run both on July 29th and August 1st. New York's overs missed twice as well, at -143 and again at even money. Chicago's total went 2 of 4 across the week — hits at -140 and -145, misses at -125 and -150.
Play of the Day: 4 of 7
The Play of the Day pool finished 4 of 7 for the week, a 6% ROI. That's a separate record from the posted-play log above — the single headline call each day, not the full slate of surfaced plays.
The ranked boards
Across the ranked matchup pools, the top 3 ranked calls hit 54 of 102, the top 5 ranked hit 228 of 460, the top 10 ranked hit 452 of 943, and the full board hit 5046 of 14898.
On the individual stat boards, Hits led the way at 60% across 1727 graded rows, with H+R+RBI at 49% and Total bases at 48%. Home runs sat at just 11% and Stolen bases at 7% — the two toughest stat boards of the week. On the pitcher side, Pitcher outs had the best top 3 rate at 67%, while Pitcher strikeouts and Hits allowed both cleared 54% on the full board.
Golf: Rocket Classic
At the Rocket Classic, our top pick was Xander Schauffele, who finished 2nd. The player who actually won was ranked 22nd by our model — a clear miss on the winner even with the top pick finishing on the podium. Of the top 10 graded players, 8 made the cut.
UFC and soccer
At UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, straight picks went 10 of 14. The biggest upset came from Ludovit Klein, given a 77% win probability, who lost by KO/TKO.
In MLS, across 6 games graded, Match result went 2 of 6, Over/under 2.5 went 5 of 6, and Both teams to score went 6 of 6.
Every posted play this week
11 of 22 landed — 7 of 15 on team totals, 4 of 7 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 | Jake Bennett | over 3.5 strikeouts | -145 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-28 | San Diego Padres | team total over 4.5 | -105 | 8 | Hit |
| 07-29 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 2 | Miss |
| 07-29 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 3.5 | -118 | 1 | Miss |
| 07-29 | Kansas City Royals | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 4 | Hit |
| 07-29 | Miami Marlins | team total over 2.5 | -140 | 8 | Hit |
| 07-29 | Tarik Skubal | under 8.5 strikeouts | -104 | 6 | Hit |
| 07-30 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -140 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-01 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 5 | Hit |
| 08-01 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 3.5 | -120 | 1 | Miss |
| 08-01 | Cristopher Sánchez | under 7.5 strikeouts | -148 | 11 | Miss |
| 08-01 | Kansas City Royals | team total over 5.5 | -117 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-01 | Los Angeles Dodgers | team total over 3.5 | -136 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-01 | New York Yankees | team total over 2.5 | -143 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-01 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -145 | 3 | Miss |
| 08-02 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 2.5 | -150 | 1 | Miss |
| 08-02 | Gage Jump | under 5.5 strikeouts | -115 | 5 | Hit |
| 08-02 | Gavin Williams | under 7.5 strikeouts | -143 | 10 | Miss |
| 08-02 | Jacob Misiorowski | under 9.5 strikeouts | -131 | 10 | Miss |
| 08-02 | Jake Bennett | over 3.5 strikeouts | -112 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-02 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | +110 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-02 | New York Yankees | team total over 3.5 | +100 | 2 | Miss |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.