The Headline Number
The Play of the Day pool finished 16 of 24 for the week of August 3 to August 9, a 19% ROI.
That record sits inside a much bigger sample: 633 rows graded across MLB this week, on top of a golf major and a UFC card.
Ranked Matchups Hold Their Shape
The top 3 ranked matchups went 59 of 116 for the week. Widen to the top 5 and it's 209 of 487. The top 10 checked in at 433 of 983.
The full board — every graded matchup, not just the ranked ones — landed at 5,076 of 14,673.
The Stat Boards
Across the position-player boards, Hits led at 60% on the full board (1,692 graded), with Total bases at 47% (919 graded) and H+R+RBI at 49% (817 graded). DFS points sat at 44%, Runs at 37%, Walks at 31%, RBI at 29%. Home runs and Stolen bases were the toughest calls, at 11% and 7%.
Pitcher boards ran hotter. Earned runs graded 58% in the top 3 and 57% across the full board (185 graded). Pitcher strikeouts went 57% top 3, 52% full board (180 graded). Hits allowed checked in at 47% top 3, 54% full board (181 graded). Pitcher walks came in at 53% top 3, 56% full board (178 graded). Pitcher DFS points and Pitcher outs were the softer pitcher categories, at 48%/31% (188 graded) and 43%/49% (181 graded).
The Posted Plays
Posted plays — every surfaced call for the week, not just the headline Play of the Day — went 16 of 24, the same record as the pool itself.
The worst of it was Gage Jump on August 8: called under 5.5 strikeouts at -119, he threw 11. Kyle Harrison's under 6.5 strikeouts on August 5 also blew up, going for 10. Shane Baz's under 5.5 on August 7 went for 9, and Cade Povich's under 4.5 on August 4 went for 7. Four strikeout unders missed this week. Cody Bradford's over 3.5 and Robert Stock's over 3.5 cashed, along with Nathan Eovaldi's under 7.5 — good for 3 of 7 on player props.
Team totals fared better at 13 of 17. Chicago Cubs' team total over 3.5 hit big on August 3, with 10 runs actual. Milwaukee Brewers cashed a team total over three separate days — August 4, 5 and 6. The misses came on Washington's total over 2.5 (shut out), Athletics' total over 2.5 (held to 1), Los Angeles Angels' total over 3.5 (held to 3), and Chicago Cubs' total under 5.5 on August 9 — the same Cubs who'd gone over big six days earlier — when they scored 10.
By lean, overs went 14 of 17 for the week. Unders went 2 of 7.
Golf: Wyndham Championship
146 players graded at the Wyndham Championship. Our top pick, Cameron Young, finished 61st. The player who actually won was ranked 33rd on our board — a miss at the top of the sheet.
The top 10 held up better lower down: 9 of the 10 players graded in our top 10 made the cut, with a best top 10 finish of 9th.
UFC: Fight Night Gamrot vs Salkilld
12 fights, 12 correct. A clean card at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld.
Every posted play this week
16 of 24 landed — 13 of 17 on team totals, 3 of 7 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -118 | 10 | Hit |
| 08-03 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | -117 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-04 | Cade Povich | under 4.5 strikeouts | +103 | 7 | Miss |
| 08-04 | Kansas City Royals | team total over 3.5 | -133 | 8 | Hit |
| 08-04 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -132 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-04 | Washington Nationals | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 0 | Miss |
| 08-05 | Cody Bradford | over 3.5 strikeouts | -146 | 5 | Hit |
| 08-05 | Kyle Harrison | under 6.5 strikeouts | -140 | 10 | Miss |
| 08-05 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -105 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-06 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -128 | 5 | Hit |
| 08-07 | Athletics | team total over 2.5 | -142 | 1 | Miss |
| 08-07 | Nathan Eovaldi | under 7.5 strikeouts | -127 | 2 | Hit |
| 08-07 | Shane Baz | under 5.5 strikeouts | -140 | 9 | Miss |
| 08-07 | Toronto Blue Jays | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 5 | Hit |
| 08-08 | Gage Jump | under 5.5 strikeouts | -119 | 11 | Miss |
| 08-08 | Philadelphia Phillies | team total under 5.5 | -135 | 5 | Hit |
| 08-08 | Robert Stock | over 3.5 strikeouts | -146 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-08 | Texas Rangers | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 5 | Hit |
| 08-09 | Arizona Diamondbacks | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-09 | Chicago Cubs | team total under 5.5 | -107 | 10 | Miss |
| 08-09 | Colorado Rockies | team total over 3.5 | -142 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-09 | Los Angeles Angels | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 3 | Miss |
| 08-09 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 2.5 | -110 | 3 | Hit |
| 08-09 | St. Louis Cardinals | team total over 4.5 | -132 | 7 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.