Plays of the Day: 11-for-16
The headline call went 11 of 16 this week for a 23% ROI. That's the Play of the Day pool only — one call a day, graded straight up.
Across the ranked matchups, the top 3 hit 59 of 111. The top 5 hit 256 of 489. The top 10 hit 455 of 991. The full board hit 5,446 of 15,364. The shape holds: narrower the tier, higher the rate, same pattern as most weeks.
The stat boards
Pitcher walks was the standout board, hitting 64% in the top 3 and 64% across the full board on 173 graded lines. Pitcher hits allowed and pitcher DFS points both hit 57% in the top 3.
Hitters had a mixed week. Hits led the hitter boards at 60% full-board on 1,674 graded. Total bases sat at 51%, H+R+RBI at 51%. Home runs and stolen bases were the weak spots — 12% and 6% respectively, both on 1,674 graded lines. Those are low-probability events by nature and the numbers reflect it.
The posted plays
Posted plays finished 11 of 16 for the week, with team totals doing the heavy lifting at 10 of 14 and props going 1 of 2.
The rough one: Blake Snell, called under 6.5 strikeouts at -155 on August 11, went down after Snell put up 10.0. On the other side, Blade Tidwell's under 4.5 strikeouts at -105 on August 16 landed clean at 1.0.
Team totals were mostly overs and mostly hit. Texas Rangers over 3.5 at -130 landed with 4 runs. Baltimore Orioles over 3.5 at +105 blew past it with 10. Cincinnati Reds over 3.5 hit once (9 runs on August 13) after missing once two days earlier (0 runs, August 12). Cleveland Guardians over 3.5 on August 16 missed with a shutout, and Washington Nationals' second total that same day missed by half a run at 3. By lean, overs went 10 of 14 and unders went 1 of 2.
Golf: St. Jude
Scottie Scheffler was our top-ranked player at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and he won it — our No. 1 pick lined up exactly with the winner. Of the 10 players graded in our top 10, 7 finished inside the top 25. There's no cut to report at this event; the field played all four rounds.
UFC
8 of 17 fights graded correct across Dana White's Contender Series Season 10, Week 1 and UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry.
The biggest upset: Mansur Abdul-Malik, given a 72% win probability, lost by submission.
Soccer
Seven games graded across LaLiga and MLS. Match result hit 5 of 7. Both teams to score hit 6 of 7. Over/under 2.5 was the weak market, hitting 3 of 7.
Every posted play this week
11 of 16 landed — 10 of 14 on team totals, 1 of 2 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -115 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-10 | Texas Rangers | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-11 | Blake Snell | under 6.5 strikeouts | -155 | 10 | Miss |
| 08-12 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 0 | Miss |
| 08-12 | Detroit Tigers | team total over 3.5 | -145 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-13 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 9 | Hit |
| 08-15 | Boston Red Sox | team total over 3.5 | -135 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-15 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-15 | Toronto Blue Jays | team total over 2.5 | -142 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-15 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-16 | Baltimore Orioles | team total over 3.5 | +105 | 10 | Hit |
| 08-16 | Blade Tidwell | under 4.5 strikeouts | -105 | 1 | Hit |
| 08-16 | Cleveland Guardians | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 0 | Miss |
| 08-16 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 2.5 | -148 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-16 | New York Yankees | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-16 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 3 | Miss |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.