Plays of the Day: 11 of 16, 23% ROI
11 of 16. That's the Play of the Day record for the week of August 10 through August 16, good for a 23% ROI on the pool.
623 rows got graded across MatchWiz's MLB boards this week — that's the volume sitting behind every number below.
Ranked matchups hold up down the board
Top 3 ranked matchups went 59 of 111. Widen it to Top 5 ranked and it's 256 of 489. Top 10 ranked checked in at 455 of 991.
Pull back to the Full board — all 15,364 graded matchups — and the hit count sits at 5,446.
The stat boards: hitters cool, pitchers steady
DFS points landed at 43% on the full board. Hits led the hitter boards at 60%, with Total bases at 51% and H+R+RBI matching it at 51% — all across 1,674 graded lines, except Total bases (1,406) and H+R+RBI (1,165). Runs sat at 36%, Walks at 31%, RBI at 28%. Home runs and Stolen bases stayed the toughest calls — 12% and 6%.
On the pitcher side, Pitcher walks was the standout: 64% in the top 3 and 64% on the full board across 173 graded lines. Hits allowed ran 57% top 3, 48% full. Pitcher outs went 52% top 3, 45% full. Pitcher strikeouts landed at 48% top 3, 51% full. Earned runs came in at 45% top 3, 51% full. Pitcher DFS points hit 57% in the top 3 but slid to 33% on the full board across 186 lines.
The posted plays: 11 of 16, and Snell was the story
Blake Snell was priced at -155 to go under 6.5 strikeouts on August 11. He finished with 10 — the week's clearest miss.
Team totals carried the rest of the log. Cincinnati's over 3.5 missed on August 12 when the Reds were shut out, then hit the very next day when the same call went over 3.5 and the Reds scored 9. Washington's over 3.5 hit on August 15 with 4 runs, then missed on August 16 with 3.
The winners: Texas Rangers over 3.5 (-130, 4 runs), Detroit Tigers over 3.5 (-145, 4 runs), Boston Red Sox over 3.5 (-135, 4 runs), Milwaukee Brewers over 2.5 (-148, 6 runs) and over 3.5 (-130, 4 runs) on separate days, Toronto Blue Jays over 2.5 (-142, 4 runs), Baltimore Orioles over 3.5 (+105, 10 runs), and New York Yankees over 2.5 (-145, 4 runs). Blade Tidwell's under 4.5 strikeouts (-105) also hit, with just 1 strikeout allowed.
The other misses: Milwaukee's August 10 over 3.5 (they scored 2) and Cleveland's August 16 over 3.5 (shut out).
The posted-play record for the week is 11 of 16 — 10 of 14 on team totals, 1 of 2 on props, 10 of 14 on overs and 1 of 2 on unders. That's a separate ledger from the Play of the Day pool, even though the two share the same 11-of-16 line this week.
Golf: Scheffler, wire to wire
At the FedEx St. Jude Championship, MatchWiz's top pick was Scottie Scheffler — and he finished 1st. The model also ranked the eventual winner at projection rank 1, a dead-on call.
69 players got graded. All 10 of the top 10 graded players made the cut.
UFC: a straight 8 of 17, and a bad beat on Abdul-Malik
MatchWiz went 8 of 17 on straight picks across Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1 and UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry.
The biggest upset ran through Mansur Abdul-Malik, given a 72% win probability. He lost by submission.
Every posted play this week
11 of 16 landed — 10 of 14 on team totals, 1 of 2 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -115 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-10 | Texas Rangers | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-11 | Blake Snell | under 6.5 strikeouts | -155 | 10 | Miss |
| 08-12 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 0 | Miss |
| 08-12 | Detroit Tigers | team total over 3.5 | -145 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-13 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 9 | Hit |
| 08-15 | Boston Red Sox | team total over 3.5 | -135 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-15 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-15 | Toronto Blue Jays | team total over 2.5 | -142 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-15 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-16 | Baltimore Orioles | team total over 3.5 | +105 | 10 | Hit |
| 08-16 | Blade Tidwell | under 4.5 strikeouts | -105 | 1 | Hit |
| 08-16 | Cleveland Guardians | team total over 3.5 | -125 | 0 | Miss |
| 08-16 | Milwaukee Brewers | team total over 2.5 | -148 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-16 | New York Yankees | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-16 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 3 | Miss |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.