The headline number
13 of 25. That's the Play of the Day record for the week, and it still came out to -8% ROI. A winning hit rate on paper, a losing week in the ledger — juice and price matter as much as the calls themselves.
The posted-play record for the week landed on the same 13 of 25, though it's a separate pool from the Plays of the Day and just happens to match this week. Split by type: team totals went 9 of 17, props went 4 of 8. Split by lean: overs went 9 of 19, unders went 4 of 6.
The biggest miss: Skubal
Tarik Skubal, under 8.5 strikeouts at -130 on August 22. He threw 11. That's a clean miss on an ace who blew well past the number.
Jesús Luzardo's under 7.5 strikeouts at -125 went the same way — he finished with 9. Of the six strikeout-under calls posted this week, four hit (Wheeler, Rodriguez, Misiorowski, Snell) and two missed (Luzardo, Skubal). The two strikeout-over calls, Tanner Gordon and Matt Wilkinson, both missed.
Washington Nationals team totals were the week's repeat theme: called four times, hit once. The August 19 over 3.5 landed with a 6-run game; the August 18, 21 and 22 overs all missed. Chicago Cubs team totals went the other way — 3 for 3, capped by an over 3.5 call on August 23 that saw the Cubs score 19.
MLB: the ranked boards
Across 628 graded rows this week, the ranked pools split like this: Top 3 ranked hit 62 of 112, Top 5 ranked hit 252 of 487, Top 10 ranked hit 475 of 982, and the full board hit 5504 of 15638.
On the individual stat boards, Pitcher strikeouts led the top 3 ranked matchups at 75%, with Pitcher walks close behind at 69%. Full-board numbers told a similar story: Earned runs at 53%, Pitcher walks at 62%, Pitcher outs at 51%.
Hitter-side boards were tougher. Home runs hit just 10% on the full board and Stolen bases hit 6% — the two coldest boards of the week. Hits ran hottest among hitter categories at 61%, with H+R+RBI at 50% and Total bases at 49%.
Golf: BMW Championship
Our top-ranked player for the BMW Championship was Scottie Scheffler, who finished 12th. The best finish among our top 10 graded matchups was 2nd, and 5 of that top 10 finished inside the top 25.
The winner was ranked 21st on our board. That's a clear miss on the top of the leaderboard, even with a top 10 that mostly held its ground further down.
UFC and soccer
UFC graded 18 fights across Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 2 and UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, going 9 of 18 straight. The biggest upset was Anthony Hernandez, given a 72% win probability, who lost by Decision - Unanimous.
Soccer graded 46 games across the EPL, La Liga, Ligue 1, MLS and Serie A. Match result hit 21 of 46, Over/under 2.5 hit 28 of 46, and Both teams to score hit 26 of 46.
Every posted play this week
13 of 25 landed — 9 of 17 on team totals, 4 of 8 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-18 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -102 | 0 | Miss |
| 08-18 | Zack Wheeler | under 7.5 strikeouts | -140 | 7 | Hit |
| 08-19 | Athletics | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 7 | Hit |
| 08-19 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-20 | San Francisco Giants | team total over 2.5 | -130 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-21 | Athletics | team total over 3.5 | +110 | 0 | Miss |
| 08-21 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 5 | Hit |
| 08-21 | Eduardo Rodriguez | under 5.5 strikeouts | -146 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-21 | Jacob Misiorowski | under 9.5 strikeouts | -142 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-21 | Jesús Luzardo | under 7.5 strikeouts | -125 | 9 | Miss |
| 08-21 | San Diego Padres | team total over 3.5 | -142 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-21 | San Francisco Giants | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-21 | St. Louis Cardinals | team total over 2.5 | -140 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-21 | Tanner Gordon | over 2.5 strikeouts | -165 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-21 | Washington Nationals | team total over 3.5 | -105 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-22 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -110 | 4 | Hit |
| 08-22 | New York Yankees | team total over 2.5 | -154 | 3 | Hit |
| 08-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | team total over 3.5 | -143 | 3 | Miss |
| 08-22 | Tarik Skubal | under 8.5 strikeouts | -130 | 11 | Miss |
| 08-22 | Washington Nationals | team total over 2.5 | -154 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-23 | Blake Snell | under 8.5 strikeouts | -110 | 6 | Hit |
| 08-23 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 19 | Hit |
| 08-23 | Los Angeles Angels | team total over 3.5 | +100 | 3 | Miss |
| 08-23 | Matt Wilkinson | over 2.5 strikeouts | -110 | 2 | Miss |
| 08-23 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -137 | 1 | Miss |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.