The Headline Call
Two hits from eight Plays of the Day this week. That's a -55% ROI on the pool, one of the rougher stretches for the headline call this season.
No sugar-coating it. When the single biggest call of the day misses six times out of eight, the week reads as a loss on that line, full stop.
The Posted Plays
The posted plays tell a similar story: 2 hit from 8, split 0 from 1 on props and 2 from 7 on team totals. Every lean this week was an over — 2 from 8 there too, with no unders posted at all.
The miss to remember is Brandon Williamson's over 2.5 strikeouts at -129. He finished with 2.0, just short.
Team totals had the volume and most of the damage. Chicago Cubs over 3.5 at -122 came in at 2. Minnesota Twins over 3.5 at -130 landed on 3. Pittsburgh Pirates over 3.5 at -135 scored just 2. St. Louis Cardinals over 2.5 at -145 were shut out. Tampa Bay Rays over 2.5 at -145 were shut out too.
The hits: Miami Marlins over 2.5 at -110 exploded for 8. Cincinnati Reds over 2.5 at -145 put up 7. Two totals cleared with room, the rest didn't clear at all.
The Ranked Boards
Away from the named calls, the ranked matchups graded a much bigger sample. Top 3 ranked went 49 from 107. Top 5 ranked went 217 from 474. Top 10 ranked went 427 from 943. The full board came in at 5,163 from 14,729.
626 rows graded this week across baseball, the backbone of all of the above.
Batting Boards
Hits led the batting stat boards at 59% across 1,612 graded lines. Total bases followed at 51% on 1,408. H+R+RBI graded 53% on 1,081. DFS points came in at 43% on 1,612.
Runs sat at 36%, walks at 28%, RBI at 29%, all on 1,612 lines. Home runs and stolen bases were the toughest calls of the week, at 11% and 6% respectively, also on 1,612 each. Power and speed stayed hard to project.
Pitcher Boards
Pitcher outs graded best among the pitching stat boards: 48% in the top 3 and 57% across the full board, on 159 lines. Pitcher walks weren't far behind, 50% top 3 and 54% full board on 142 lines.
Hits allowed graded 50% top 3 and 51% full board on 151 lines. Pitcher strikeouts came in at 48% top 3 and 45% full board on 156 lines. Earned runs graded 39% top 3 but 53% full board on 169 lines. Pitcher DFS points was the softest of the group, 43% top 3 and 30% full board on 179 lines.
Every posted play this week
2 of 8 landed — 2 of 7 on team totals, 0 of 1 on player props. Each is graded at the line and price we posted it at, against the real result.
| Date | Who | Call | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 | Brandon Williamson | over 2.5 strikeouts | -129 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-22 | Chicago Cubs | team total over 3.5 | -122 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-22 | Miami Marlins | team total over 2.5 | -110 | 8 | Hit |
| 09-22 | Minnesota Twins | team total over 3.5 | -130 | 3 | Miss |
| 09-22 | Pittsburgh Pirates | team total over 3.5 | -135 | 2 | Miss |
| 09-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 0 | Miss |
| 09-22 | Tampa Bay Rays | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 0 | Miss |
| 09-24 | Cincinnati Reds | team total over 2.5 | -145 | 7 | Hit |
Every number above comes from the same graded ledger the boards publish — roll any board back to that week and you'll find the same calls. Research signals from a statistical model, not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER). Method: how MatchWiz works.